Let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 5.
Let's roll...
Potential Fantasy Party Crashers
Matt Waldman: In 12-team, PPR formats...
- Name a quarterback outside the top 15 who will finish as a QB1.
- Name a running back outside the top 36 who will finish as at least an RB2.
- Name a wide receiver outside the top 48 who will finish as at least a WR3.
- Name a tight end outside the top 15 who will finish as at least a TE1.
Sean Settle: This is definitely a hot take, but Kirk Cousins will turn things around and finish as a QB1. The talent in Minnesota is just too good for these struggles to continue the rest of the season. Cousins has a history of racking up yards and touchdowns in garbage time, but he also has several great matchups coming up against teams like the Giants and Redskins. Adam Thielen can’t throw the ball to himself and Cousins has to be the one to do it. Expect a turnaround in Minnesota.
Waldman: I agree and I think Cousins is a below-average NFL starting quarterback.
Settle: Ito Smith has a real chance to take over the lead role in the Atlanta backfield. The offense is a mess and Devonta Freeman is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone. Smith saw his role increase in week 4 when Atlanta was playing from behind and was even given carries in the red zone. Look for Atlanta to move off Freeman and onto Smith if the struggles continue.
There are two receivers sitting on the outside looking in that will easily finish in the top 48. Stefon Diggs has taken a hit due to an ineffective Kirk Cousins and having lost two fumbles and Alshon Jeffrey has missed time due to injury. Expect both guys to be much better for the rest of the season and return to their normal spots in the rankings.
O.J Howard is currently sitting outside the top 15 and has a chance to get back into the TE1 conversation. Tampa Bay has been airing it out so far this season and Howard has caught 10 of his 12 targets so far. As teams move their coverage to Mike Evans on the outside and Chris Godwin it should open things up down the middle for Howard. Look for a quick turnaround for him if the offense continues to trend in its current direction.
Jason Wood: Quarterbacks outside the top 15 are usually there for a reason, but there are a few options to consider. Believe it or not, Aaron Rodgers is only QB17 through four games, and he's certainly a good bet for positive mean regression. He gets an attacking Dallas defense on the road, but Rodgers is capable of a top-5 finish any week.
I'll also mention Jimmy Garoppolo. The Browns secondary is decimated by injury, and Garoppolo is starting to play better. Coming off a bye week, I like the chances for the 49ers to score some points as Kyle Shanahan is a good planner and will feast on the Browns broken defensive backfield with two weeks of game-scripting.
Yes, I know Austin Ekeler has been one of the best players in football and it would be silly to bench him completely. But the Chargers receiving corps is beaten up as are the tight ends, so why not have Ekeler out there as a slot receiver and Melvin Gordon in the backfield?
If Gordon doesn't count here, give Nyheim Hines a consideration. Marlon Mack got hurt last week, and if he's out this week Hines is a must-start in a game against the Chiefs. The Colts will need to be aggressive offensively and are probably going to be playing catch up, which is a recipe for success for Hines. He's been dynamic in games where Indianapolis trails, and has been a solid RB2 in PPR formats whenever Mack is out of the lineup.
The receiving landscape is as deep as we've ever seen it, and a lot of the guys outside the top 48 are there mainly because they've missed time. Guys like Michael Gallup (WR59), DeSean Jackson (WR60), and Alshon Jeffery (WR62) all fit the bill.
If you're looking for someone that hasn't missed time but is just off to a slow start, I'll nominate Stefon Diggs. I know the Vikings offense is toxic right now, but it gets the New York Giants secondary this week. The natives are getting restless in Minnesota, and if there's ever going to be a course correction, it should be this week. Expect the Vikings to throw more against New York, and in turn, try to placate Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs after woeful Septembers.
The tight end landscape is as shallow as the wide receiver position is deep. It's rough out there when Jordan Akins is TE12 and James O'Shaughnessy is TE15.
The Cardinals are historically bad against opposing tight ends, so either Tyler Eifert or C.J. Uzomah is a solid dart throw if your desperate this week.
Bob Henry: The easiest one to pluck here is Aaron Rodgers since the main thing keeping him out of the QB1 discussion is volume. However, three of his first four games came against teams built to play defense and run the ball thereby limiting Rodgers’ upside via game script that limited his pass attempts and played to the Packers much-improved defense and a renewed focus on their running attack.
Going forward, the Packers will probably need to throw more (like they did against the Eagles) with games on the schedule against the Chiefs, Chargers, and 49ers. Rodgers remains an extremely efficient quarterback who should finish within the QB1 discussion barring injury. This is a buy-low opportunity if his owner is ready to bail.
Andy Hicks: As Jason and Bob mentioned, the obvious answer is Aaron Rodgers. Offenses will start winning battles as the season moves on and Rodgers is too good to not be a starting fantasy option. He won’t go as high as he normally does, thanks in part to better defense, but he still should be a top 10 finisher.
If I had to pick a nonobvious one, I would choose Andy Dalton. That offensive line is playing poorly and the run game is suffering as a result. As the Bengals are likely to be playing from behind as well, and with the imminent return of A.J. Green, it all points to the passing game performing better than expected. Or they throw in the rookie.
I like a pair of rookies to come on strong as the season progresses. Miles Sanders is not quite there as a player yet but looks a much higher upside option than Jordan Howard. Once he fixes his ball security and blocking he should take over the backfield. He has had at least 10 rushing attempts in every game and is doing more with them every week. Once he gets a bit more involved in the passing game, RB2 is his downside.
The other one I like is Devin Singletary. Provided he returns from his hamstring strain soon. Singletary has only had 15 touches in his first two games, but he did a lot with them. Frank Gore has been magnificent in his absence, but the dude is 36 years old. Expect Gores touches to fall as Singletary returns, as the rookie has been explosive.
Saying Stefon Diggs is obvious and boring at this point in the conversation. Jason mentioned Michael Gallup, also an excellent choice. He looks like an elite player moving forward, the only question is opportunities. WR3 is a low bar to set given how he performed in his first two games.
Looking elsewhere and I have to hone in on Jamison Crowder. Once Sam Darnold returns, we are going to see a lot more 10+ target games than what we are seeing with the bottom of the barrel quarterback play from the replacements.
The talent pool is so diluted at this position, one good game and a player becomes a starting consideration. Honestly, I can’t get involved with O.J. Howard. The Bruce Arians' appointment had me concerned from the beginning and nothing I've seen to date is changing my mind there.
Because the difference between starting and not even top 30 tight end is about targets and opportunities, I am going with Hunter Henry if he returns in week 9 or a better option would be Vance McDonald. Basically, we are looking for players, expected to do well who have short term injuries and will return shortly.
I'll go with D.K. Metcalf here. Seattle wants to be a vertical-based passing offense, and their numbers on throws downfield have been off the charts over the past season-plus. When you look at how the Seahawks are using Metcalf, they are playing to his strengths as a vertical threat. His route chart from Week 4 along signaled almost exclusively routes. When you use players in a way tailored to their skill-set, you can expect success. The Seahawks seem to be doing that with their rookie receiver.
He was a tough evaluation coming out of college given his offensive system, but over the past few weeks, Dawson Knox has shown me he can be a featured part of the Bills' offense. His game against Cincinnati was very impressive, and last week against the Patriots he was one of the few weapons for Josh Allen/Matt Barkley to do anything in the passing game. He'll get more options going forward and his numbers will continue to rise.
Drew Davenport: I think Josh Allen has a very good chance to jump up there. After leaving the game on Sunday it is likely he'll sit this week in a tough matchup, use the Week 7 bye to get right and be back ready to go in Week 8. His schedule from that point forward looks very favorable for the Bills offense, and the passing game in particular.
Matt Breida is my pick here. Currently sitting at RB43, he is as talented a back as there is sitting down in that territory. He had a poor Week 1 against a very good Tampa Bay run defense, but otherwise has been very good. He hasn't scored yet and is coming off his bye week to face quite a few lower-tier run defenses. Once he puts a couple in the end zone coupled with his excellent rushing numbers he'll jump up into the solid RB2 neighborhood.
This would be a big leap from his current WR82 position, but Robby Anderson has had his bye, his quarterback is coming back soon, and the Jets' schedule is an absolute dream the rest of the way. Once Sam Darnold is cleared to return, I expect we'll see a very solid WR3 who can possibly put up WR2 numbers as well.
I agree with what Andy had to say. I'm looking at Vance McDonald and Hunter Henry. It all depends on when Henry returns, but if it's soon he'll easily get into the top 15 because the position is so thin. McDonald is, unfortunately, doing his injury thing too, but it doesn't look long term for him. He's going to be valuable as a top 15 guy once he returns to the field.
Honorable mention goes to A.J. Green. His injury appears to be more extensive than originally expected and he could close to half the season before he's back to full strength. But when he comes back, he's going to see plenty of action - especially in garbage time and his PPG should be at least to the level of a WR3 in a PPR format.
My go-to answer here would have been James O'Shaughnessy but since he's No.15 right now, I'll go with Trey Burton...sort of. Burton missed a couple of games due to injury and it's still unclear what role he plays in the Chicago offense. With Mitchell Trubisky set to miss time, this is even more of a question mark. But Chase Daniel presents an interesting option for Chicago in that he doesn't make a lot of the mistakes that Trubisky does when throwing the ball (like locking onto his primary receiver). Maybe Daniel is a better option for Chicago—maybe he's not. But Burton is a lot better than a 'top-60' fantasy tight end and if Chicago gets their offense back on track, I think Burton's going to see a good chunk of it.
Dynasty Dish
Waldman: Let's have our first Roundtable dynasty discussion of the season.
- Give me one player you're either buying or selling at each position (four total): QB, RB, WR, and TE.
- Name a player (any position) that we should exercise at least 1-2 years of patience in dynasty formats because the dividends will be worth it.
Grant: Jameis Winston is a "Buy," with 760 yards passing and 7 touchdowns over the last two weeks. He's spreading the ball around to more than just Mike Evans as well, and that makes him an attractive option at quarterback. Especially with the challenges that Tampa has running the ball.
Kerryon Johnson is a "Buy" with C.J. Anderson gone. It means Johnson will stay on the field for passing downs as well. He posted almost 160 yards from scrimmage last week against KC and just might give Detroit the 1,000-yard rusher that they've been missing since forever.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is a "Sell," and man, this hurts because I was so high on him earlier this year. I felt like Smith-Schuster had a chance to be a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. But the offensive struggles of the Steelers are dragging him down and he has very little hope of providing the value you wanted from him when you drafted him in the second or third round this year.
OJ Howard is also a "Sell" because Winston had over 760 yards passing over the last two weeks and Howard had less than 100 of them. None of the seven touchdown passes came his way (Cameron Brate actually got one though). Howard was a top 10 fantasy tight end at the beginning of the season. Now he's not even a starter in most PPR leagues.
Dwayne Haskins is going to get his chance in Washington. But until they put something that resembles an NFL offense around him, he's not going to pay off any fantasy value. Not this year and probably not next year. This team needs a serious offensive makeover and by the time it's ready to be competitive again, Case Keenum and Colt McCoy won't be around. Give Haskins some time.
Davenport: At quarterback, I'm selling Lamar Jackson. I absolutely believe his a talented kid who can play quarterback. But his bonkers start to the season has his value unusually high. Watching him play the last two weeks has made me realize he's still a work in progress. In dynasty, because you have to consider his longevity, as well as his skill set, I'm not sure the model is there for a running quarterback to sustain long term success in the NFL. I'd be seeking a haul for Jackson before the situation cools any further.
A running back I'm looking to buy is David Montgomery. His snap counts and usage rates continue to climb each week. The numbers, however, haven't necessarily been there. He's averaging just 10 points a game, but that's a little misleading as he didn't play much Week 1, and he ran into a staunch defense this week. With just 1 touchdown on the year, his numbers look weak, but he's a great buy in dynasty if you can approach an underwhelmed owner.
At wide receiver, I am selling Mecole Hardman. While the Chiefs offense can make lots of weapons relevant, there is no indication that Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, or Travis Kelce are going anywhere. Couple that with Andy Reid's affinity for throwing to the running backs, I'm not seeing a big spike in Hardman's usage in the foreseeable future. This is somewhat of a comment on the strong wide receiver class coming in 2020 as well. For me, Hardman has looked strong while Hill has been out and you should use that to sell now. His path to relevance looks difficult.
Darren Waller looks like the next big thing. His off-field issues and his health have held him back, but the fantasy community has always known what he was capable of if he could put it all together. It seems like that is happening for him. His start is no fluke—I'm buying.
Schofield: At the quarterback position, I'll highlight Daniel Jones. Like so many others I questioned the selection at the time the Giants drafted him, and he was not my favorite quarterback coming out this past season, but he transition to the NFL has been wonderful to watch. He is playing with confidence, he is handling pressure well, and he is far ahead of where I expected him to be at this point in his young career. I'm buying.
For running backs, I'm selling Miles Sanders. I was very high on him coming into this season and thought he would be a perfect fit for what the Philadelphia Eagles do offensively, but so far the production just has not been there from him. He did have a decent game in Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers when the Eagles had a ton of success running the football, and that recent performance might enable you to find a willing buyer for him. Also, these advanced numbers on him do not exactly instill confidence.
Going to write this up this week w/film but @fboutsiders ranks Miles Sanders as the following in their advanced metrics (min. 32 rushes):
— Michael Kist (@MichaelKistNFL) October 1, 2019
DYAR: 34th of 36
YAR: 36th of 36
DVOA: 35th of 36
VOA: 36th of 36
Success Rate: 26th of 36
Yards vs. Effective Yards Diff: 35th of 36
Another player I'm buying is Cole Beasley. I know that slot receivers are somewhat overrated, even in PPR formats, but Beasley is growing into a security blanket of sorts for Allen. He is being targeted on a number of those options routes that we often associate with Julian Edelman, and his usage makes sense given offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's New England ties. But they are also getting him involved in the vertical game as well. A very intriguing option.
I'm also selling O.J. Howard at this point. The results just have not been there, and while there is still time to see him become more of a focus in this passing attack, I am done waiting around.
Kyler Murray is a patience play. I think the payoff is going to happen for him, perhaps even sooner rather than later.
Hicks: At tight end, the answer is Darren Waller. He is a guy you buy whenever you can. At least six receptions in every game to date, as well as a monster game against the Vikings. He leads all tight ends, by a considerable distance in receptions and if he can just get in the end zone will be a top-three player this year and beyond.
At wide receiver, I would be selling Josh Gordon, while he still has value. He just doesn’t look the same player as he did in 2013. Just that timeframe alone should present all the issues we are dealing with in Gordon, but there will still be many saying it’s only a matter of time until he breaks out.
Running back is a young man's game, so I would be looking at players to move on from who are performing well now and are perceived to still be a top option but face the downhill run imminently. The player that springs to my mind here is David Johnson. He is almost 28 and that Arizona offense is a while away from getting the best out of him. If we look at the current top 15 running backs, all are 25 and under, except for Johnson and Mark Ingram, who is perceived to have little dynasty value at 30 years of age.
Without stating the bleeding obvious at quarterback, getting Patrick Mahomes II on your roster is a must. He is going to be the top guy for the next 10 years and packaging a group of players to grab him is a long term investment. Sacrificing one season could pay long term dividends. Risky? Sure, but getting young talent in, draft picks and if you had Lamar Jackson or DeShaun Watson to trade, the price would be much better.
Henry: Daniel Jones. Expect turbulence in his first year, but he is already proving to be capable of creating a bigger pie for his surrounding talent than Eli Manning was previously. The Giants will likely add more big-play talent as the receiver position next year to go with Barkley and Engram (both elite talents at their respective positions). Jones could easily settle in as mid-to-low QB1 over the next 5 years with that kind of talent around him and his own ability to create and extend plays with his legs.
Diontae Johnson. The Steelers have done a great job of identifying talent at this position over the last several years (Limas Sweed notwithstanding). Johnson had a slow start due to injury, but now has established himself firmly into the starting lineup opposite JuJu Smith-Schuster and he appears to be creating even more separation from James Washington and others behind him on the depth chart. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, Johnson is creating value as a receiver capable of working underneath as well as a deep target. He has the potential to be a long-term starting asset at the position.
Ian Thomas. His value is suppressed right now by the resurgence and current health of Greg Olsen. However, Olsen is not a viable long-term option for the Panthers and Thomas’ time is coming. Right now is a buy-low window for an owner with patience and roster space to stash him and reap the benefits later.
Wood: I just updated my Dynasty rankings and contributed to an article about key changes.
Selling Duke Johnson Jr: Duke, we hardly knew you. Johnson’s preseason couldn’t have gone better. He went from underutilized third-stringer to prized trade acquisition stepping in for a workhorse who tore his ACL in Lamar Miller. He was a can’t-miss fantasy asset. Except we all missed that whatever turned Johnson off to the Browns coaches appears to have infected Bill O’Brien and the Texans staff. Johnson is stuck in an ineffective committee with Carlos Hyde, and if not now, when will he live up to the hype?
Buying Sterling Shepard: The Giants have a long way back to respectability, but the early returns for Daniel Jones are impressive. More importantly, Jones has zeroed in on Shepard, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue for years to come as long as both stay healthy. Shepard isn’t a game-breaker, but he runs crisp routes and is sure-handed. He was way too low in my prior rankings, and there’s room for further upward revision if his September metrics sustain into October.
Selling O.J. Howard: Bruce Arians’ Cardinals offenses didn’t make use of the tight end position but most chalked that up to a talent issue. Surely, Arians’ schemes would feature O.J. Howard—who is infinitely more talented than anyone from those Cardinals teams—right? Yet, a month into the season and Howard is a complete non-factor. If you can’t finish as a top fantasy asset in a 55-point offensive explosion, as the Buccaneers had in Week Four, it’s safe to worry it’ll never happen.
Darwin Thompson comes to mind. Right now, he's the fourth-stringer in Kansas City, and it's been hard to keep him on redraft rosters, as a result. But Thompson has three-down skills, and neither Damien Williams, Darrel Williams nor LeSean McCoy are the long-term answers. Don't be surprised if Thompson becomes the fixture there in 2020 or 2021. Anyone paired with Patrick Mahomes II for years is going to be valuable, it's just a matter of waiting his turn.
I am selling my Austin Ekeler shares, especially if you invested in Melvin Gordon as well. The Chargers have no reason to try and preserve Gordon as there is little chance they re-sign him in the offseason. Ekeler has done more than enough to warrant his fair share of touches in that offense but he is going to take a hit once Gordon gets rolling. Sell high before Gordon takes too many of his carries and he loses value.
I am buying Darren Waller as a tight end of the future. He has a whopping 37 targets and 33 receptions so far this season and could easily be in the big-three discussion by the end of the season if he starts to find the end zone. Let other owners be skeptical of the Raiders offense and buy into the stock based on the volume he is getting. Waller is big and athletic, and the Raiders are content featuring him in their offense.
I wish...
Waldman: Looking back at your drafts, list a player (2 total):
- You wished you drafted that you didn't genuinely consider
- You wish you hadn't drafted who you never considered avoiding.
Settle: I wish I had trusted Cooper Kupp to come back from injury. I avoided him like the plague not trusting that he was fully healthy. I also was worried about the competition from Gurley, Woods, and Cooks in that offense for targets. Kupp has blown my projections out of the water and is a focal point for that offense.
I should have avoided Joe Mixon. There were several other running backs available around the same time and it was a mistake trusting the Cincinnati offense to do anything special with the running game. Mixon is a good running back on a bad team. That is not a recipe for success. Couple that with an injury to begin the season and it has been difficult to trust him in my starting lineup this year.
Wood: Leonard Fournette had almost worn out his welcome in Jacksonville, to the point of having his guarantees voided. He was skating on thin ice, coming off a disappointing season, and had a litany of missed time for injuries and behavioral issues. I'm also a fan of Ryquell Armstead as a possible successor. Well, Fournette is on his best behavior through the quarter-point and is the Jaguars' offensive engine. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry, is 3rd in the league with 404 yards, and is being featured as a receiver, too (16 receptions for 114 yards).
There are plenty of highly-drafted running backs struggling right now, but Mixon is the guy I never hesitated taking in the last first or early second (at or near ADP). The Bengals are a mess, and it's hard for even the most talented running backs to flourish in unwinnable game scripts.
Henry: I didn’t completely miss on D.J. Chark, but I wish I had jumped onto that wagon much earlier in Best Ball season. Similarly, with Terry McLaurin. Both were prime targets for the end of draft strategy given their athletic profiles, opportunity cost and upside for those who weren’t blinded by their perceived offensive shortcomings with their quarterbacks or otherwise. Both have elevated their game and their stock as likely WR1s for their teams moving forward and both were essentially free at the end of the draft.
Fool me twice shame on me. Having said that, any failure with Hunter Henry has nothing to do with talent or opportunity. It’s all about bad luck with injuries and it’s impossible to predict that. Here’s to hoping for a healthy and productive return for the latter portion of the season and fantasy playoffs.
Hicks: Like Sean, I settle on Cooper Kupp. I had him lowest on the staff rankings, by a considerable distance. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks were both WR1s last year and Goff would continue using them. Well, he has, but Kupp is the guy he trusts most to convert a crucial play. Watching the games closely you will see that Woods and Cooks get the low percentage plays a lot of the time, while Kupp never does. I expected Kupp to be a complementary option still recovering from a later season ACL tear.
Sony Michel is the player I am thinking of here. He is literally invisible in the passing game. Not a huge shock, but you would expect something. As a runner, he looked great down the stretch last year and he looked to be well ahead of Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris for carries. He is still the dominant carrier for New England, with 62 percent of their rushing attempts, but he doesn’t look as fluid or trusted as he did last season. Maybe he is being saved for when it is important. Maybe he just needs a little more patience. When Jaylen Samuels, Darrel Williams, and Raheem Mostert are doing better than you, something is off.
Schofield: In a number of drafts I was picking near the top—including the Scott Fish Bowl—and always considered someone from the Saquon Barkley/Ezekiel Elliott/Alvin Kamara trio. Christian McCaffrey never entered my mind, to be honest. I was concerned about his usage, concerned about the Norv Turner factor and scared off a bit by their quarterback situation/Cam Newton's health. I really wish I had reconsidered my thought process there.
Honestly, that's a big L.
Look, it's been a rough start to this year, okay? But I bought in on buying low on Antonio Brown early in the Scott Fish Bowl, I talked myself into the idea that he would get his head on straight once games started, and then I thought it would all pay off for me once he finagled his way into New England.
I won that week at least. What a return on the investment...
Waldman: Oof. We all have those years, Mark.
Davenport: I'm embarrassed to even say it but mine is easily Mark Andrews. There is nothing more frustrating than seeing a player rotate in and out frequently while hoping for a slice of a small passing pie. But Andrews has made me a believer. When he is in the game he runs routes and is targeted heavily. His snap count isn't super relevant anymore so my fixation with his playing time was poor process. I'm still kicking myself for missing on Andrews.
I was flabbergasted this summer that I kept landing Mike Williams so cheaply in every draft. I thought it was elementary math that the guy is uber-talented and there are lots of vacated targets to be spread around. But he hasn't seen those targets, even with Hunter Henry out. He may be more banged up than we know, but I'm taking the loss on this one. I'm ready to pounce on him if he shows signs of life, but it hasn't been pretty so far.
Grant: As I mentioned earlier, JuJu Smith-Schuster is the first guy who comes to mind here. I really felt like Smith-Schuster was poised to be a top fantasy wide receiver, and a guy you could comfortably draft in the 2nd round. I never considered fading him in any format and looking back, anyone who drafted him severely overpaid for him.
Joe Mixon is the other guy I'd consider here. I felt like Mixon was poised to be a 'bell cow' running back. He seemed like an easy choice as an RB1 and he was a guy I very comfortably drafted with a high second-round pick. The offensive struggles in Cincinnati (especially their offensive line) have really killed the offense. Mixon isn't even an RB2 in most leagues, and he's a guy that you might not even plugin at a flex position, depending on who else you have.
State of the Browns Offense
Matt Waldman: Cleveland's offense disappointed during the first three weeks of the season but showed signs of life against the Baltimore Ravens.
- Baker Mayfield has a pair of 300-yard games despite a disappointing TD:INT ratio.
- Nick Chubb was solid but his upside showed up in a big way once the Browns used him in single-back sets with Mayfield under center against the Ravens.
- Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry each have a game out of three befitting of their fantasy potential.
- Ricky Seals-Jones scored in his debut as David Njoku's replacement.
- Will Mayfield pick up his game and become a fantasy starter this year?
- After this weekend, Chubb is the No.4 fantasy back in both formats. Was last week a massive high-point or are 100-yard days with at least a touchdown about to become a routine occurrence?
- Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry are the No.24 and No.34 PPR receivers heading into Monday night. Where do you stand on their fantasy values for the rest of the season?
- Can Ricky Seals-Jones sustain his impressive debut or are you counting on someone else contributing in Cleveland as worthwhile fantasy options? (Kareem Hunt, Rashad Higgins, and Antonio Callaway are the most likely candidates)
Share your thoughts.
Grant: There's too much talent around Mayfield for it not to happen. The expectations were high and several guys on staff worried that the Browns were in a position for a big let-down given what people wanted for them. But I think that's finally behind them and Mayfield had his 'get right' game this week. This week, he faces the 49ers who held Mason Rudolph in check two weeks ago but gave up over 300 yards passing to Andy Dalton in week 2. If Mayfield can go on the road and beat a team coming off a bye week, I think you can feel comfortable sticking him back in your starting lineup again.
I think Chubb is a must-start every week and he's going to continue to put up those top-15 fantasy numbers that most fantasy owners expected from him when they drafted him. I expect that to take a hit though when Kareem Hunt rejoins the team for the second half of the season.
Hunt is too talented for the Browns to keep him on the sidelines, and it will be interesting to see how much of Chubb's opportunities go to Hunt down the stretch. I doubt it's enough to put Chubb on your fantasy bench, but it might drop him to more of a flex-play than a guaranteed starter every week.
A rising tide lifts all boats and with Mayfield getting back on track, I think Beckham and Landry do as well. Again, there's just too much talent to NOT get them involved. Landry would be a legitimate WR1 option for a good chunk of the NFL, and pairing him with Beckham only makes him more dangerous because you won't be able to double-cover him as much.
I see both of these guys moving up a full tier - with Beckham approach the top 12 / WR1 fantasy status and Landry easily sliding into the top 24 / WR2 tier. The one drawback for Landry is how serious the concussion is that he sustained this week. That should give you pause right now - at least until we see him in action another week.
Tight End is the one area I wouldn't be so quick to jump on for Cleveland. When Odell Beckham was first signed, the one person I was concerned about from a fantasy perspective was David Njoku. There were only so many balls to go around and it seemed like Njoku was the guy who could lose the most from having a stud like Beckham on the field.
Now, Ricky Seals-Jones enters the picture and I don't see that improving. With Landry out, Seals-Jones has a chance to shine but if Landry's back in the mix, I don't see how he stays fantasy relevant. It will get even worse when Kareem Hunt comes back from suspension. I'd tamp down any excitement right now on Cleveland's tight ends.
Davenport: I think this depends on whether play-caller Freddie Kitchens has learned anything from this week's win. He made some subtle adjustments this week and they paid off. Keep in mind that Mayfield is still very young, so the mantle placed on him by fantasy drafters may have been a touch unrealistic. Seeing him play in Week 4, though, has made me believe he can still be ok for fantasy purposes and I think he can finish as a fantasy starter.
I think this is a sign of things to come. Fantasy owners need to remember that if Chubb had started hot but then had a rough three-week stretch in say, Weeks 7-9, nobody would bat an eye. The concerns about the offense are legitimate, but they had some tough tests to start the season with the Titans, an underrated Jets defense, and the Rams in Week 3. And even so, he didn't crater in those weeks, he simply didn't score much. He was still involved in the passing game enough, and his touch counts were intact. He's got a legitimate shot to finish as the overall RB1.
I'm feeling the exact opposite about Cleveland pass catchers that I am about Chubb. I think Mayfield is going to be fine, but I'm not sure the offense is going to be good enough to sustain the levels these guys are used to seeing.
After this week ended I was trying to think of who the lowest player I would accept in a trade for Beckham would be. I got shockingly low on the list before I wanted to give up a player for Beckham. Their offensive line remains a problem, as does Mayfield's poor pocket presence to date.
The offense should be ok overall, but I'm not confident in them going forward. They look properly valued where they are now. Each one will probably finish several spots higher by making it to the finish line, but they aren't going to finish where they were drafted in my opinion.
I'm not big on Seals-Jones going forward. I acknowledge his talent, but I don't see the Browns using him enough to make me think he's going to be a solid every week contributor. I am, however, in on Antonio Callaway if he can get his act together. Believe it or not, his addition to the field could help the offense overall. I'm not rushing to add him in shallower leagues, but he's a solid stash in deeper leagues to see what develops.
Settle: Mayfield has all of the tools and weapons in the offense to become a fantasy starter this year. He has been careless with the football and is trying to fit this gunslinger mentality that the NFL has painted of him. Once he settles in and realizes he doesn’t have to throw the ball all over the field his TD-to-INT ratio should improve. He also needs to realize that he can run the ball instead of just trying to extend plays and push the ball down the field.
He has too many weapons to not succeed in the NFL right now. Once roles become clearer, it should be easier for Mayfield.
The offense tried to feature Chubb more this week, but his rankings benefitted from one really big run for a touchdown and we cannot expect that each week. Chubb is going to get his chances, but the offense needs to feature the run as its identity if 100 yards and a touchdown is going to become the norm.
Cleveland has the weapons on the outside to open things up in the middle for Chubb, but they have to commit to that. I think this offense still wants to be a high flying, 500 yards per game and throwing the ball 40+ times right now and that just does not fit their strengths. Chubb could be a 100-yards-and-touchdown-per-game back, but the offensive play calling needs to change to make that happen.
Waldman: The nice thing is that the play-calling, offensive alignments, and use of misdirection all changed for the Ravens' game and Chubb had several successful runs in this game. The fact that Cleveland placed Baker Mayfield under center and used Chubb as a single back in 11, 12, and 20 personnel sets (three receivers, two tight ends, and a back and fullback with three receivers) made play-action more compelling and allowed Chubb to use his top-notch skills to work past penetration into the backfield with more options when the offensive line failed him.
While possible that the Browns revert to its offensive incompetence of the first three weeks, it's unlikely. This team figured out how to spread the field, give Mayfield quick-hitting attempts, make the offense a little less predictable, and maximize Chubb's awesome talent for the benefit of the entire unit.
Settle: Makes sense. As for the receivers, Beckham and Landry are both very good wide receivers and they should jump higher into the rankings as the season wears on. The biggest issue right now is opposing defenses are keying in on one receiver a week and it allows the other to run free.
They have both had to deal with Mayfield’s struggles this season as well as the safety help over the top. Defenses will eventually have to play a more even coverage as Cleveland starts to exploit which one is open. I fully expect Beckham to finish in the top 10 for receivers and Landry to finish in the top 20.
Seals-Jones has a great opportunity in front of him in Cleveland. He is playing on a team with two outside threats and a quarterback who is not afraid to try and fit the ball into a tight window across the middle. Njoku is a good tight end, but he has benefitted from the scheme in Cleveland as well. Seals-Jones has a similar frame and can go get the ball when needed.
Other players like Kareem Hunt will have competition for playing time while Seals-Jones will command the majority of targets to the tight end position for the rest of the season.
Schofield: Yes. I was ready to write Baker Mayfield off after his start to the season, and especially in the wake of his struggles against the Los Angeles Rams. But I was very pleased to see his game against the Ravens.
Put the production aside, this was the most comfortable and decisive we have seen Mayfield in a long time. Rather than bailing from clean pockets—or even muddled ones—we saw a passer willing to stay and fight in the pocket under pressure. That is a huge step for him, and I think he's turning a corner.
I will be optimistic about Chubb as well. The talent and production have been there, he is a great fit for their offense and given some of the weapons that the Browns have in the passing game, he won't exactly see a ton of crowded boxes. I think he'll continue to put up big numbers.
I'm higher on Jarvis Landry than I am on Odell Beckham Jr right now. Studying their offense there are certainly opportunities for Beckham in the downfield passing game, but so much of what they do is rooted in the short- and intermediate-areas of the field.
They love running shallow cross with a route over the top of Landry working the drag underneath, and Landry seems like more of a focus point for their passing game. That, coupled with the attention Beckham draws from opposing secondaries, has me leaning towards Landry.
