Can you believe we are a quarter of the way through the season already? In fantasy terms we're even further, considering most league's playoffs start in Week 14. For those of you with a 4-0 record, Congratulations! All the power to you.
This week's edition is more for those that are 0-4, 1-3 or 2-2. I'll take a look at some struggling players from each position and let you know what you how you should proceed with those players. These do not include any players who have missed multiple games with an injury.
QUARTERBACK
Kyler Murray, Ari
Current rank:13th
Drafted as: QB1-2.
Opponents played: DET, at BAL, CAR, SEA
Record: 0-3-1
Upcoming schedule: at CIN, ATL, at NYG, at NO
2019 fantasy points through Week 4 (76.1)
2018 fantasy points through Week 4 (NA)
2018 fantasy points total (NA)
Kyler Muray has just as many touchdown passes as Baker Mayfield, who is ranked #23, however, Murray also has 113 yards rushing with 1 rushing touchdown. A ranking of #13 isn't bad, especially because he hasn't shown his full potential - but some had him as a preseason Top 10. The fact is, he could be doing much better and yet he still has a top 15 ranking. Arizona ranks high when it comes to several offensive categories. #1 in pass plays per game (47.2 average), #3 in pass attempts (42.2 per game), #4 in red zone attempts (5.8 per game), 8th in deep ball attempts (5.2 per game). Murray himself is 4th in carries for a quarterback, 3rd in rushing yards, and 4th in red zone carries. As long as the Arizona offense continues to operate at a high pace, Murray can put up top 10 numbers any given week.
Result: The results so far have been mediocre, but even a slight increase will make him a weekly starter
AARON RODGERS, GB
Current rank:18th
Drafted as: QB1.
Opponents played: at CHI (win), MIN (win), DEN (win), PHI (loss)
Record: 3-1
Upcoming schedule: at DAL, DET, OAK, at KC
2019 fantasy points through Week 4 (76.9)
2018 fantasy points through Week 4 (67.0)
2018 fantasy points total (314.5) 7th
In four games so far this year, Rodgers has one 300+ yard game and two games with 2+ touchdowns. If it weren't for the Eagles game in Week 4 where he topped 400 yards with 2 touchdown passes and 46 yards rushing, he would be outside of the Top 20. He started slowly last year also, but that was mostly due to a Week 1 injury. The schedule opens up for Rodgers and the Packers offense in the coming weeks, but keep in mind, he'll be without Davante Adams (toe) for at least Week 5 at Dallas and possibly longer. We may see a less than stellar outcome for another week or two, but to concern yourself with Rodgers' lack of production seems like a knee-jerk response at this time.
Result: Expect a bounceback, but perhaps not until Davante Adams returns.
Baker Mayfield, CLE
Current rank: 23rd
Drafted as: QB1.
Opponents played: TEN (loss), at NYJ (win), LAR (loss), at BAL (win)
Record: 2-2
Upcoming schedule: at SF, SEA, Bye, at NE, at DEN
2019 fantasy points through Week 4 (55.8)
2018 fantasy points through Week 4 (24.6) *two games
2018 fantasy points total (254.1) 16th *14 games
Baker Mayfield has not had a game where he has surpassed 1 touchdown pass, despite having both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry at his disposal. Rashard Higgins has been battling a knee injury which has kept him from participating early on, but he is expected to return to the lineup soon. Cleveland will also get Antonio Callaway back from a four-game suspension. Their returns should help elevate the passing game. Even though Mayfield has only four touchdowns, he has two 300-yard passing games. While he may be lower in the rankings after four games, signs point to him rebounding.
RUNNING BACK
joe mixon, cin
Current rank: PPR 33, standard 37.
Drafted as: RB1-2
Opponents played: at SEA (loss), SF (loss), at BUF (loss), at PIT (loss)
Record: 0-4
Upcoming schedule: ARI, at BAL, JAC, at LAR
Joe Mixon has not surpassed more than 62 yards rushing in any game this season, and he has two games with fewer than 20 yards rushing. His receiving production has been equally as disappointing, but he does have one receiving touchdown. His lack of success is directly related to the struggles the Bengals are having as a whole. The team has four losses and the game script for rushing yards has been one of the lowest in the league (18 rush plays per game). If Cincinnati can turn around their season, perhaps with the return of A.J. Green, the schedule for rushing gets much better for the fantasy playoff stretch. Aside from New England in Week 15, the Bengals have a favorable schedule against the run, including a Week 16 game at Miami. Last year at this time he also ranked 33rd among running backs and finished 10th despite playing only 14 games.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (37.8) 33rd
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (32.6) 33rd
2018 total fantasy points (271.5) 16th *14 games
Result: This may be the lowest point of the season for Mixon. If you can survive until Week 11, he could still have value.
Devonta Freeman, Atl
Current rank: PPR 25th, standard 33rd
Drafted as: RB2
Opponents played: at MIN (loss), PHI (win), at IND (loss), TEN (loss)
Record: 1-3
Upcoming schedule: at HOU, at ARI, LAR, SEA
The Falcons offense has failed to live up to expectations through the first four games this year. This team has plenty of talent, but the offensive line has struggled with injuries, Matt Ryan has turned over the ball too many times, and ultimately three losses in the first four games is the result. Devonta Freeman is receiving more snaps than his teammate Ito Smith (185 vs 97), but he has not been cashing in on his opportunities. An 8-catch 100-total yard effort last week has shown some signs of life for Freeman to snap out of his slump, but he's going to need more than that to meet expectations for this season.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (46.0) 25th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (8.0) 77th (injured after one game)
2018 total fantasy points (14.1) 106th *2 games
Result: Don't give up on Freeman, but if the team doesn't turn it around, chances are he won't either
LeVeon Bell, NYJ
Current rank: PPR 17th, standard 25th
Drafted as: RB1-2
Opponents played: BUF (loss), CLE (loss), at NE (loss), Bye
Record: 0-3
Upcoming schedule: at PHI, DAL, NE, at JAC
On the bright side, LeVeon Bell is far and away the Jets' top option at running back. In three games he has 56 carries while the next closest Jets player (Montgomery) has 7. Bell's 20 receptions is 4th among running backs, despite the early bye week. He may not have issues reaching 75+ total yards per game, but scoring may be a challenge, at least until Sam Darnold returns. Teams are probably a bit down on Bell's output so far and he's already had his bye week. He's an excellent buy-low candidate right now in hopes that he can turn on the production in the coming weeks.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (54.4) 17th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 NA
2018 total fantasy points (NA)
Result: He's still an RB2 option and the better games are coming, especially when Sam Darnold returns.
Sony Michel, NE
Current rank: PPR 42nd, standard 31st
Drafted as: RB2-3
Opponents played: PIT (win), at MIA (win), NYJ (win), at BUF (win)
Record: 4-0
Upcoming schedule: at WAS, NYG, at NYJ, CLE
The Patriots love to mix up their offense with multiple running backs. The result is no one back dominates snaps, but because the offense is so potent, we want a share of that success. Sony Michel is not going to see many opportunities if any, at receiver, but he does get goal-line looks and he's the leading rusher on the team by 38 carries (62 rush attempts). He has two touchdowns so far, both short-yardage. The team lost their fullback, James Develin to injured reserve, which should mean more touchdown opportunities for Michel. The only concern is that he is averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season with Rex Burkhead also getting carries. The eventual presence of rookie Damien Harris is another hurdle for Michel. The Patriots are virtually matchup proof, but they do have a tougher rushing schedule after Week 7 with six tough opponents the rest of the way. Michel is capable of having a big game any given week and the game script is usually in his favor. He's a decent RB3 or flex option with the ability to produce solid numbers vs any opponent.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (29.3) 42nd
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (28.2) 44th
2018 total PPR fantasy points (141.1) 34th
Result: Chances of a score are high, but consistent volume is always a concern. He'll be hit or miss week to week
Latavius Murray, NO
Current rank: PPR 58th, standard 56th
Drafted as: RB3-4
Opponents played: HOU (win), at LAR (loss), at SEA (win), DAL (win)
Record: 3-1
Upcoming schedule: TB, at JAC, at CHI, ARI, Bye
After scoring a touchdown in Week 1, Murray has not been utilized much at all. He has games of 6, 5, 2, and 4 carries and has only exceeded 15 yards rushing once. He is not seeing the ball as a receiver (4 receptions) and has not topped more than 23 snaps in a game. He has not met expectations of being the player to take over Mark Ingram's role in the offense. Drew Brees or not, Murray has not earned a spot in your lineup. Unless Alvin Kamara is forced to miss time, Murray is not someone to count on as a fantasy option at this time.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (19.2) 58th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (18.0) 59th
2018 total PPR fantasy points (129.9) 37th
WIDE RECEIVER
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou
Current rank: PPR 21, standard 24th.
Drafted as: WR1
Opponents played: at NO (loss), JAC (win), at LAC (win), CAR (loss)
Record: 2-2
Upcoming schedule: ATL, at KC, at IND, OAK
DeAndre Hopkins had a huge Week 1 with 8 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns and he hasn't scored or topped 67 yards since. Conventional thinking would say brighter days are ahead, and who's to argue? Hopkins is a perennial Top 3 wide receiver. A big game will put him right back in the rankings with the top-performing receivers. There should be no cause for alarm, he's healthy and is still seeing a high number of targets (36 in four games).
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (60.9) 21st
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (85.6) 5th
2018 total PPR fantasy points (337.4) 1st
Result: No concern, just a slow start. Big days are ahead
Odell Beckham, Cle
Current rank: PPR 24th, standard 25th.
Drafted as: WR1
Opponents played: TEN (loss), at NYJ (win), LAR (loss), at BAL (win)
Record: 2-2
Upcoming schedule: at SF, SEA, Bye, at NE, at DEN
A poor game in Week 4 has Beckham on this list of players who have not met expectations through the first quarter of the season. Last week he was held to 2 catches for 20 yards, despite the Browns scoring 40 points with Baker Mayfield reaching 342 yards passing. The story of the game for Beckham was tight, close coverage all day. Ravens corner, Marlon Humphrey particularly played well against him and the result was a rough outing for Beckham. It didn't help that he let his fiery attitude get the best of him in this game. Aside from Week 4, Beckham has played well, but not elite. Week 2 was his best game of the season, reaching 161 yards with a touchdown on 6 catches. Volume isn't a concern, only 6 wide receivers have more targets than his 37. The level of concern with Beckham this year should not be high. He should be able to rebound, especially in the second half of the season when the Browns face eight favorable opponents against the pass after Week 8.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (57.8) 24th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (65.0) 22nd
2018 fantasy points (PPR) total (233.4) 15th *12 games
Result: Concern level is low. Beckham had a slow start last year too and he turned it around
Adam Thielen, Min
Current rank: PPR 37th, standard 27th
Drafted as: WR1-2
Opponents played: ATL (win), at GB (loss), OAK (win), at CHI (loss)
Record: 2-2
Upcoming schedule: at NYG, PHI, at DET, WAS
Despite three touchdowns, Adam Thielen is ranked 37th in PPR leagues. Imagine where he'd be without those scores. He has 13 receptions on 22 targets in four games. Last year at this time he had 40 receptions on 56 targets. So what's the deal? The offense is more run-oriented this year than last, and new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is struggling to find a rhythm for his quarterback Kirk Cousins. Nothing has changed in Thielen's approach to the game. He's still the same player, but the passing game for Minnesota is in a slump. Look for the team to get the ball out faster in the coming weeks. This season is not lost for Thielen, or his teammate Stefon Diggs, but time is running out to have a chance at a Top 20 season.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (49.0) 37th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (99.3) 2nd
2018 fantasy points (PPR) total (307.3) 7th
Result: Thielen's struggles have been a direct result of the passing game performing poorly. Fix that, and fix Thielen.
TIGHT END
George Kittle, SF
Current rank: PPR 13th, standard 22nd.
Drafted as: TE1
Opponents played: at TB (win), at CIN (win), PIT (win), Bye
Record: 3-0
Upcoming schedule: CLE, at LAR, at WAS, CAR
The biggest reason for Kittle's 13th ranking is the early bye week, but even without the bye, he has yet to score a touchdown. He is 5th in targets among tight ends (despite the bye) and he has 18 catches in three games. The only concern with Kittle is his lack of scoring, which should come around. He scored only five touchdowns last year and finished as the 3rd ranked tight end. This is not as big of a concern as some are playing it out to be.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (33.5) 13th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (55.6) 4th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) total (256.7) 3rd
Result: Volume and yardage are lower than last year but still good. The touchdowns will come.
O.J. Howard, TB
Current rank: PPR 27th, standard 28th
Drafted as: TE1
Opponents played: SF (loss), at CAR (win), NYG (loss), at LAR (win)
Record: 2-2
Upcoming schedule: at NO, CAR, Bye, at TEN
O.J. Howard is dominating snaps with 238 compared to Cameron Brate's 99, but he is struggling to find the production he has last year. He has 10 catches in four games, compared to 9 catches for Brate. The common denominator is Bruce Arians, who is known for his lack of usage at the tight end position. He has indicated that Howard will see more action when he plays better. So far, Howard has not seen much involvement, despite the high number of snaps. The offense has taken off, but Howard is struggling to be a key piece in the offense. That could turn around as the season wears on, but until then, he's not worth a weekly start.
2019 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (23.1) 27th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) through Week 4 (39.2) 9th
2018 fantasy points (PPR) total (120.5) 15th
Result: Find an alternative until Howard becomes more involved in the offense.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
