Fantasy Overview - Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season has come and gone. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact on some of these circumstances and occurrences. Here's a look at the last two Week 1 performances and how they finished. Not everyone who produces in Week 1 is a league-winner.

(2018) AFTER WEEK 1

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (with Tampa Bay) passed for over 400 yards with 4 touchdowns on his way to the top ranking for the week. He finished the year ranked #28
• Case Keenum had over 300 yards passing with 3 touchdowns. He finished 2018 ranked #18
• Isaiah Crowell had 100 yards rushing and 2 rushing touchdowns for Jets. He had one other game with over 100 yards rushing and finished 32nd.
• Randall Cobb had 9 receptions for 142 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 1 and he failed to exceed 43 yards receiving in a game the rest of the season, with only one more touchdown scored.
• Phillip Dorsett has a history of playing week in Week 1. In 2018 he had 7 catches for 66 yards and 1 touchdown. He finished 88th hauling in only two more touchdowns while never exceeding 5 catches again that year.

(2017) AFTER WEEK 1

• Trevor Siemian was the 4th ranked quarterback. He wound up playing 11 games and finished 29th.
• Mike Gillislee had three rushing touchdowns for New England in Week 1. He finished with 5 for the season and finished 70th among PPR running backs.
• Kenny Golladay started as the 5th ranked wide receiver thanks to two touchdown catches. He finished with three touchdowns for the season and ranked 70th.
• Broncos wide receiver Bennie Fowler also had two touchdowns in Week 1 and finished with three touchdowns and ranking of #78.
• Jesse James, Austin Hooper, Coby Fleener, and Charles Clay were all among the Top 6 in tight ends after Week 1. None finished in the Top 15 at season's end.

Some fast starters who stayed hot in 2018

• Patrick Mahomes, in his first game as a starter, passed for 256 yards with 4 touchdown passes. As we all know, Mahomes finished with 50 touchdown passes en route to a breakout performance in 2018.
• Phillip Lindsay had over 100 total yards with a touchdown in Week 1 despite receiving only 26 snaps. He finished the season inside the Top 12.
• James Conner had nearly 200 total yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 1. He finished the year inside the Top 6.
• George Kittle finished 20th in 2017. He had 5 receptions for 90 yards in Week 1 in 2018 and didn't look back finishing the season as the #3 tight end.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING

Don't give up on players who have shown success in the past who may have struggled Week 1. Each week is different and some teams and players take some time to get going.

• Devonta Freeman - 8 carries, 19 yards, 3 receptions, 12 yards (39 snaps, 50%) - The Falcons could not get any rhythm going and the game script played a role thus limiting the rushing opportunities. Ito Smith equaled Freeman's 39 snaps, but it's too early to assume Freeman won't be the team's primary running back.
  
  
• Sony Michel - 15 carries, 14 yards (23 snaps, 33%). Patriots running backs tend to come and go depending on the opponent and the game script. Last season, Michel had at least two red zone carries in all but two games last year. His 43 red zone touches were 8th best among running backs. He's the top option for pounding the ball in the end zone and had there been a pass play that drove down to the 2-yard line, instead of a score, Michel likely would've benefited.
  
  
• Mike Evans - 2 receptions, 28 yards (60 snaps, 86%). Jameis Winston passed for less than 200 yards in the game and only Chris Godwin (6 targets) had more than Evans (5 targets). It was not a good start for Evans or the Buccaneers passing offense. It's too early to downgrade Evans, plus he was dealing with an illness all week that probably had an impact on his ability to perform.
  
  
• Zach Ertz - 5 receptions, 54 yards (62 snaps, 83%). This is not a bad box score, but for Ertz, who had 116 receptions last year, it's a slight disappointment. This is likely a blip on the radar of what is expected to be another strong season. He narrowly missed scoring a touchdown in the second half against Washington but was tackled short of the goal line. Ertz will be fine.

REASONS FOR INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY

• Injury ahead in the depth chart - an injury elevates a player. "Next man up" mentality is a strong motivating force
• Improved Performance - a player makes an impact on the field resulting in more productivity
• Coach's decision - the coach likes what he sees in his player and gives him more touches

WHICH PLAYERS ARE PRIMED FOR AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION?

• Matt Breida and/or Raheem Mostert, SF - Tevin Coleman is out with a high ankle sprain that is expected to keep him shelved for a few weeks. In the interim, both Brieda (30 snaps) and Raheem Mostert (20 snaps) will get a crack to make an impact for the 49ers rushing offense. Breida is the one that could make the biggest splash. Last year he ran for 15+ yards on 8.5% of his carries which ranked 4th best in the league. Breida has a level of explosiveness to his game that can take flight at any time. The odds lean towards him being the one who breaks out over Mostert, but Mostert has equally impressed in his limited action. The hot hand will get the carries here and there's a chance either one could be fantasy relevant, especially in the next few weeks (at CIN, PIT, bye)
  
  
• Devin Singletary, BUF - The Bills rookie running back saw only four carries in Week 1, but he made good on his chances rushing for 12, 23, 12, and 15 yards. He also had 5 catches in the game and finished with 98 total yards on 10 opportunities (48 snaps). Frank Gore led the team with 11 carries, but for only 20 yards. Gore also was held without a catch and was not targeted. The opportunity for Singletary is coming sooner than expected. He is on the verge of being a fantasy relevant running back.
  
  
• Adrian Peterson, WAS - Peterson was a healthy scratch in Week 1, but a knee injury to Derrius Guice is expected to keep him shelved for a few weeks. This opens the door for Peterson to show what he can do in his age 34 season. Peterson will share some duties with Chris Thompson, but the backfield carries should be dominated by the future Hall of Fame running back as long as Guice is out.
  
  
• John Ross, CIN - The Bengals third-year wide receiver is making strides and Andy Dalton has taken notice. Ross had 7 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 1 against the Seahawks, but more importantly, he was targeted a team-high 12 times. Tyler Boyd had a quiet 8-60 stat line on 11 targets, but the speed of Ross is a weapon that Cincinnati should continue to target, even when A.J. Green returns from his ankle injury.
  
  
• Terry McLaurin, WAS - Washington has an opening as the team's WR1 and Terry McLaurin has applied for the job. He has an above-average knowledge of the game, he understands his playbook, and above all, he has the talent, and speed to get separation and make plays all over the field. Paul Richardson may have led the team with 7 targets in Week 1, but McLaurin was clearly the best receiver on the team. He routinely got open and finished with 125 yards and 1 touchdown (68 yards). He would've had a second long touchdown if Case Keenum didn't overthrow the pass. To add more interest in the hype, McLaurin played 62 snaps (93%).
  
  
• A.J. Brown, TEN - The Titans had 9 different players with at least one target. Delanie Walker led the way with 6, but A.J. Brown had 4. He was a key contributor on offense catching 3 passes for 100 yards including one for 47 yards and another for 51 yards. Neither resulted in a score, but it was clear that Brown can separate and get himself open. He also showed the ability to gain extra yards after contact and shed tacklers. He only played 26 snaps in the game, but his ability and talent may have earned him more playing time. He's an excellent proactive waiver claim if he's available in your league.
  
  
• Marquise Brown, BAL - The Ravens rookie receiver showcased his talent to the tune of 4 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 14 snaps. It's possible that Brown played his best game of the year, but his ability to separate and split defenders after the catch, making him a key candidate to see increased playing time. Lamar Jackson talked highly of Brown in the preseason and it was clear that he wanted to target him when he was in the game. If the Ravens offense continues to fly high via the pass, Brown will most likely see more opportunities and is worthy of a waiver claim.
  
  
• T.J. Hockenson, DET - There are not many rookie tight ends who make a fantasy impact, but Hockenson has the pedigree and opportunity to showcase his talent in year one. He had an impressive debut with 6 catches for 131 yards and 1 touchdown. All tight ends with at least 5 catches in their debut include Hockenson, George Kittle, Coby Fleener, Todd Heap, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Jermaine Gresham. That's not a bad list. Expect to see similar involvement from Hockenson all season.
  
  
• Darren Waller, OAK - 10 different tight ends scored a touchdown in Week 1, but Darren Waller wasn't one of them. He did, however, show promise with 7 catches for 70 yards on 8 targets. Waller, a former wide receiver, acted like the team's WR2 behind Tyrell Williams. He was on the field for every offensive snap and commanded 31% of the team's targets. He may not have scored, but he appears to be a big contributor going forward.

these PLAYERS MAY NOT BE AS GOOD THEIR WEEK 1 PERFORMANCE?

• Case Keenum, WAS - 380 yards, 3 touchdowns. The presence of Terry McLaurin will help the Washington offense but Keenum is not expected to be a top-flight quarterback week in and week out. Plus, Dwayne Haskins is waiting in the wings for his chance to make an impact.
  
  
• Malcolm Brown, LAR - 11 rushes, 52 yards, 2 touchdowns. It was Brown who received goal-line carries in the game against Carolina, not Todd Gurley. This was the case twice in the game, and both resulted in touchdowns. It's too much of a stretch to suggest that Brown will see adequate yardage every week, and score a touchdown. He may continue to see goal-line touches, but there's no telling how often he'll be used throughout the game. For now, he's a handcuff best suited for Gurley owners. Send a trade offer to the Gurley owner and see what you can get.
  
  
• Phillip Dorsett, NE - 4 receptions, 95 yards, 2 touchdowns. Dorsett tends to show up in Week 1 and then disappear for the rest of the season. The same may be true again with the presence of Antonio Brown in New England's receiving corps, thus relegating Dorsett to more of a reserve role. He is not expected to keep up this pace and is not the best option as a waiver wire pick up.

THESE PLAYERS HAVE SHOWED PROMISE WHO MIGHT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE

• Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark, Chris Conley, JAX - The Jaguars passing game takes a hit with the loss of Nick Foles (collarbone) to the IR. Gardner Minshew performed well in relief of Foles, but his long-term outlook is still an unknown and may result in lower numbers across the board for the Jaguars top offensive receivers, Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark, and Chris Conley. If Minshew continues to play at a high level, then these two can blossom into weekly fantasy starters, but there is some pause until we have more clarity with the Jaguars passing game.
  
  
• Sammy Watkins, KC - The Chiefs veteran receiver is finally healthy and he showed up in a big way with 9 catches for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1. The injury to Tyreek Hill (collarbone) should elevate his game in the coming weeks. Combine that potential with the presence of Patrick Mahomes and Watkins becomes a candidate to be the league's top receiver in the first half of the season. In years past, Watkins has had big games only to disappear for a week or two. Consistency has been a concern with him in the past, but this year, with Mahomes, and the injury to Hill, the sky is the limit for Watkins.
  
  
• Jamison Crowder, NYJ - The Jets may have found their possession receiver after Crowder totaled 14 catches on 17 targets for 99 yards. In PPR leagues, Crowder is someone who belongs in your lineup, but don't expect such lofty numbers every week. 5-8 catches is still solid, especially if he can get some scoring chances.
  
  
• Michael Gallup, DAL - The Cowboys top receiver is Amari Cooper, but Michael Gallup is making a case for being 1b. He caught all of his 7 targets for 158 yards and he appears to be a popular target for Dak Prescott in 2019. He may not see consistent production, but he's capable of making plays and should be viewed as a flex option going forward, if not higher.
  
  
• DeSean Jackson, PHI - Jackson has always been one of the league's best deep threat receivers and he also plays well in revenge games, which he had this past week against Washington. The return to Philadelphia should elevate his game, especially with a healthy Carson Wentz and his arm to make accurate downfield throws. It is unknown if he will be a consistent weekly fantasy threat, but the opportunity is there for him with the Eagles offense.

POTENTIAL RISERS - BUT NOT THERE YET

Players who scored a touchdown with 5 or fewer carries

• Wayne Gallman, NYG
• Dontrell Hilliard, CLE
• Alex Armah, CAR

SCORES ARE COMING?

Players who had 10+ targets but did not score a receiving touchdown

• Jamison Crowder, NYJ
• Allen Robinson, CHI
• Michael Thomas, NO
• Robert Woods, LAR
• Christian Kirk, ARI
• Tyler Boyd, CIN
• Odell Beckham, CLE
• Christian McCaffrey, CAR
• Julian Edelman, NE
• KeeSean Johnson, ARI
• Donte Moncrief, PIT
• Goerge Kittle, SF
• Chris Thompson, WAS
• Tarik Cohen, CHI
• Cooper Kupp, LAR
• D.J. Moore, CAR

TOP DEFENSES

Defenses with 5+ sacks

• 6 NO
• 5 CHI, DET, GB, TEN, SEA

We have witnessed players who are capable of success. The next step is continued production as we look to gain more clarity on which players are here to stay and which ones were a flash in the pan. Bring on Week 2.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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