One of the toughest things about NFL DFS is that it isn’t nearly as consistent as another very popular sport that is going on right now, the NBA. But surprisingly that hasn’t been the case this year. In years past there has been some inconsistency on how good, or bad, pass defenses are. At the beginning of the year, a team will be bad and throughout the year that team gets better as they focus efforts there, face better opponents, etc. However, this year we have seen the Buccaneers be consistently bad every week. If you just played the Buccaneers opponents every week you would probably own an island in the Caribbean by now. If you used the past precedents of the Buccaneers improving you might have had to take out a second mortgage. The same thing can be said for tight ends against the Arizona Cardinals who again continued their poor trend by allowing 2 more TDs to the intimidating Ross Dwelley last week. Of course, this also applies to the offensive side and we can’t forget Mr. consistency himself Christian McCaffrey who had another 191 yards plus 11 receptions again last week despite his team only scoring 3 points. Do we trust these trends to continue? Or like year’s past will they start to regress? This is a big week to find out as most of these consistent plays are some of the chalkiest plays of the slate.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
The chalk at quarterback is going to be centered around the game between the Buccaneers and the Falcons. Of course, this makes a lot of sense since those are the two defenses that the public has attacked week in and week out. Rightfully so, the Falcons are allowing the 6th most yards per attempt and the Buccaneers 10th most. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are allowing the most points per game and the Falcons are 7th. The Falcons points allowed has improved greatly over the last two weeks after allowing only 9 points to the Saints and 3 to the Panthers coming off their bye. The question is whether this is an anomaly or if their defense has turned a corner.