We are nearly halfway through the season already! At this point in the season, we can start relying on some key statistics like playing time for those teams that have been fairly healthy. However, there are a lot of teams that have had to deal with injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers.
One thing that is really easy to get into the habit of is looking at full-year statistics at this point in the year. But if a team has a new quarterback or receivers that are missing time you really need to take a look at what the team is doing with these new personnel packages. Something that looks good for the full year may not be good this week. It’s always better to identify changes before the rest of the public does, even if you are wrong more often than you are right. Because when you are right it will pay off with big tournament-winning results. Don’t be afraid to trust your gut and what you see. The public is wrong all the time.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
The chalk at quarterback looks to be between Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. Both look like pretty solid chalk too. Of the two I am currently preferring Watson. I talked about all the issues that the Falcons defense has had last week. That trend continued last week as Goff righted the ship for 291 passing yards and 2 passing TDs. So, I don’t have any problems chasing Wilson. His floor is going to be high and has big upside.
However, I rather go with Watson. Watson’s matchup against the Raiders is similarly favorable. For the year the Raiders have allowed the 10th most passing yards. But what a lot of people don’t consider is that they have only played 6 games when many teams have played 7. If we look at net yards per pass we find that the Raiders are averaging 8.2 which is tied with the Falcons for the 2nd worse in the league. The matchups are closer to equal than most people will imagine so what pushes me more towards Watson is the Seahawks reluctance to pass the ball. Based on my metrics which take into consideration how often a team passes in a game neutral situation the Seahawks rank 2nd to last. They are more likely to take the ball out of Wilson’s hand than the Texans will be who rank more toward the middle of the pack. As such, when choosing between the two I favor Watson.