As many of you know I do the ownership projections here at Footballguys in addition to this article. Last week on Twitter I did a couple of polls asking my followers what they thought the ownership range would be for a couple of key ownership questions for the week. They were Auden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Deshaun Watson. If you aren’t following me on twitter be sure to do so @SteveBuzzard These were all for DraftKings Milly Maker
The reason I wanted to do this poll is that we often see a player or two that just really picks up steam and is way higher owned than I would have ever thought using the metrics that I currently do. I wanted to see if a wisdom of the crowd's experiment would help identify the outliers.
How did it work? First of all, I did a poor job of identifying the players for the poll as it was David Johnson that the public fell in love with and was owned 31% when I only had him projected at 18%. The second player that jumped up high was Auden Tate as he ended up at 29% competed to my projected 24%. The crowd nailed this pretty well with 59% predicting a number higher than mine and 41% going under. Additionally, 33% said he would be 30%+. So he didn’t blow up but this was a good showing.
However, the poll failed with McCaffrey. McCaffrey ended up at 25% owned vs my 29% projected ownership. Again, the public projected 59% over my total and 41% under. But the big item here was 40% voted for 35%+ This would have been the exact type of response I was interested in and I thought might lead me to believe that he had the potential to go way higher owned. Of course, as mentioned above, he went under my projected total.
The rest of the polls ended up being somewhat inconsequential so the results are inconclusive after one week with one mild success and one big failure. I will try to continue to work on ways that improve our best in the industry ownership projections. On to this week: