FanDuel’s Week 13 Main Slate features 12 games and will kickoff at 3:30 ET.
The later start and reduction from 16 games to 12 makes preparation a bit easier this week. There are also fewer top options with many of the highest-scoring teams and players absent from the slate. Only two teams have implied team totals of more than 38 points and one of them (LSU) is favored by 44 points, capping the upside of their star players. We do have eight teams with team totals between 31 and 38 and the bulk of our top options will come from those teams. There is a lot of injury news to sort through and injuries should open up some nice value at wide receiver.
This slate breakdown will go position-by-position, highlighting the top options and giving an overview of the toughest choices we face this week. The top options are broken down into two categories. Players listed as Core Plays are those who you can play with high confidence in both cash games and tournaments. Players listed as Worth Considering are viable as cost-saving options in your main lineup or high-upside options for tournaments
Injury Situations to Watch
Every week there are some injury situations we want to watch but this slate will be much more heavily impacted by late-breaking injury news than most. There are a number of high-profile guys whose final status will have a real impact on how we want to approach the slate.
Here is a list of the injury situations to watch most closely:
- CeeDee Lamb was mysteriously held out of last week’s matchup against Baylor with what has only been described as a “medical issue.” There probably won’t be an answer until gamely. “CeeDee’s still going to be up in the air… It’s not a definite no, but certainly not a definite yes right now,” said Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley. Lamb is always a top GPP option if active. His status will also reduce the upside of Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense in general. His absence would provide a small boost to Charleston Rambo.
- Texas Tech ended last week’s game without their top two wide receivers, TJ Vasher and Dalton Rigdon. On Monday, head coach Matt Wells said that TJ Vasher was "day-to-day," but then called it "an indefinite suspension" for the tall wideout. Who knows? Rigdon took a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit last week and is in the concussion protocol. If either of these two is active, they will be strong options. If they both miss, the remaining wide receivers are all underpriced. RJ Turner looks like a top value option as the possible new No. 1 wide receiver.
- Rondale Moore is again listed as questionable for Purdue and it is unknown when exactly he will return from his hamstring injury. Comments from early in the week make it seem he is probably slightly to the doubtful side of questionable. The matchup is pretty awful and FanDuel didn’t make the mistake of pricing Moore at $5,000 again, so it may not be wise to have a ton of exposure even if Moore is healthy. Moore’s continued absence would help David Bell would be in play as a mid-priced tournament option with some upside should Moore miss.
- Maurice Ffrench of Pitt broke his jaw against Georgia Tech but may already be ready to return. Ffrench would be a solid play but his status may be most interesting in the impact it would have on No. 2 wide receiver Taysir Mack. If Ffrench is out, Mack would likely see a big bump in targets and he is priced very affordably.
- Wan’Dale Robinson is listed as questionable for Nebraska and didn’t practice on Wednesday. Last we saw Robinson, he was the chalkiest of chalk at wide receiver in his matchup against Purdue. He was banged up and left that game multiple times. Whatever the injury he suffered against Purdue, it was enough to keep him out last week. Robinson would be a strong option if we knew for sure he would be used as normal. That type of clarity is probably unlikely. His absence would be a boost to running back Dedrick Mills who would again have the backfield almost entirely to himself and wide receiver JD Spielman who would likely see a few more targets.
Quarterback
Positional Overview
Despite the smaller slate of games, this may be the least chalky week of the season at quarterback. There are plenty of quarterbacks worth playing in GPPs and none that really stand out as slam dunk cash-game plays. Jalen Hurts ($12,000) is always popular given his rushing upside. The slate is loaded with dual-threat options, which is why so many guys are legitimately in play. Nearly half the teams on the slate feature quarterbacks with rushing upside. Adrian Martinez ($9,000), Malcolm Perry ($9,900), Jett Duffey ($9,300), Skylar Thompson ($8,400), Hendon Hooker ($8,200), and Sam Ehlinger ($9,600) comprise only a partial list of the quarterbacks with GPP-winning upside due in part to their legs.
We also have a few very strong pass-first options, led by Shane Buechele ($10,000) and Kedon Slovis ($9,300). Joe Burrow ($10,800) is also interesting for tournaments. You have to assume an early hook given the 44-point spread and a matchup with Texas A&M on deck but Burrow could get there in three quarters given how well he has been playing.
Core Plays
Adrian Martinez, Nebraska ($9,000)
You have to like a legitimate dual-threat quarterback priced down at $9K in what should be a great matchup. Nebraska has the 7th-highest implied team total on the slate (33 points) against a bad Maryland defense. The Terrapins have given up at least 34 points in every conference game this season except for Rutgers. Maryland has been outscored 163-31 in their last three games and even that doesn’t quite capture how poor things have been going. The average score at half-time of the last three games was 30 to 1. Defensively, Maryland ranks 72nd in SP+. Martinez has had some struggles against top defenses but fared very well from a fantasy perspective in nearly every game against defenses as bad as Maryland’s. He scored 33.2 against Colorado, 28.7 against Northern Illinois, 34.9 against Illinois, and 26.7 against Purdue. Martinez is as healthy as he has been in a while, which bodes well for his usage as a runner. In the last two games, Martinez has averaged 14 carries for 73.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($12,000)
In the last couple weeks, Hurts was written up as merely a solid play given the matchup and other pricing on the slate. The matchup isn’t a whole lot better this week against TCU and their 32nd ranked defense (SP+). However, it feels easier to fit Hurts in this week. There is more obvious value in the 7K range at both wide receiver and running back. Plus, there are fewer elite pay-up options at those positions. Last week against Baylor felt like almost a worst-case scenario for Hurts from a fantasy perspective. For the first time all season, he didn’t score a rushing touchdown. He also was without CeeDee Lamb and didn’t get the huge chunk plays through the air like he has most weeks. Hurts still put up 34.3 fantasy points. When 34.3 is the season-long floor (against FBS opponents), it just makes so much sense to lock in the big score at the top of your lineup in cash games. In tournaments, it is a little bit closer call because if Hurts doesn’t have one of those games where he scores 40+ then it is hard to win a big GPP with him given his pricing.
Others to Consider
Kedon Slovis, USC ($9,300)
Given FanDuel’s scoring setup, my focus is typically on quarterbacks with rushing upside. However, Slovis is worth making an exception for this week given his reasonable pricing, the lack of other elite options on the slate, the matchup, and how dynamic this USC passing offense has looked in recent weeks. Slovis has thrown for 400+ yards and 4 touchdowns in three of the last four games, notching 30+ fantasy points in each of those three. The only game he didn’t throw for 400 and 4 was against Oregon’s Top 15 defense (SP+). His matchup this weekend will give him a good shot at another 400 yard, 4 touchdown game. UCLA’s 81st-ranked defense is exploitable. Last week, the Bruins gave up 335 passing yards and 2 touchdowns to Tyler Huntley of Utah. That doesn’t sound too bad for UCLA until you note he put up those numbers on just 18 passing attempts. USC will likely throw it at least twice as many times. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s offense is based upon Mike Leach’s version of the Air Raid, which is notable considering that UCLA allowed 570 yards and 9 touchdowns through the air to Washington State earlier this season.
Malcolm Perry, Navy ($9,900)
The contrast between Perry and Slovis couldn’t be much more stark. While Slovis basically derives all of his fantasy value with his arm, Perry’s points come almost exclusively via his legs. Perry is averaging 84 passing yards and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game. He has put up monster numbers as a runner, however. Perry has rushed for 1,159 yards and 16 touchdowns. Perry has rushed for two or more touchdowns six times in nine games this season. The last time SMU traveled to Annapolis to face Navy, Perry ran the ball 33 times for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has serious upside in a potential shootout versus SMU. Navy has the 4th-highest implied team total on the slate behind only LSU, Oklahoma, and USC. The Midshipmen project for almost exactly four rushing touchdowns in this game. In the last three games against SMU, Navy has averaged 468 rushing yards per game and Perry has averaged 37% of the team’s rushing yards this season. It is not hard to see a path for 200 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns for Perry, which is why he is such a strong option for tournaments.
Running Back
Positional Overview
This slate is unique in that only one really big-name college fantasy back Jonathan Taylor is on the slate. Most of the guys we have been playing heavily at running back (Chuba Hubbard, Travis Etienne, AJ Dillon, Zach Moss, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, etc. ) are off of the Week 13 main slate. Taylor looks like a must-play for cash games (even priced at $10,600) in a favorable matchup against Purdue. He is going to be extremely chalky in tournaments but it feels unwise to fade him too heavily.
While he doesn’t have the name recognition of Jonathan Taylor ($10,600) and the other backs listed above, SMU running back Xavier Jones ($9,600) has been one of the most productive backs in the country and will be a somewhat popular pay-up option this week.
There are a couple okay plays in the mid-priced range but if you aren’t paying up for Jones and Taylor, then the best course of action is to really save some cap space at the position with one of the many strong value options. The two that really stand out are Jamale Carothers ($7,000) and Kennedy Brooks ($6,900). Dedrick Mills ($7,300) would be right in this conversation as well if we know for sure that Wan’Dale Robinson is out for Nebraska. There are actually quite a few GPP-worthy options in the $7K range, so it makes sense to try to build a balanced lineup with an inexpensive RB2.
Core Plays
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin ($10,600)
If you are reading this article in Week 13 of the season, you know all about Taylor so I will spare you the details of his resume and focus on the matchup. Purdue is likely to be severely overmatched on the road in Madison. According to Football Outsiders defensive line metrics, Purdue ranks 92nd nationally in power success rate. Wisconsin should be able to steamroll this front seven. That is what happened in Taylor’s two previous matchups against Purdue. He racked up 236 total yards and 1 touchdown on 31 touches as a freshman. Then topped that performance last year with 33 carries for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns as a sophomore. We know Taylor can smash in this spot but the bigger question is whether he will see enough carries. There is some blowout potential with Wisconsin a 24-point favorite and they will want Taylor fresh for the biggest game of their season next week at Minnesota. On the other hand, this is going to be the last home game of Taylor’s illustrious career and Wisconsin is pushing him for the Heisman. He probably isn’t going to get too early a hook regardless of the score.
Jamale Carothers, Navy ($7,000)
Navy projects for somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns against SMU. Quarterback Malcolm Perry has been the most productive runner for Navy but in recent weeks, Carothers has emerged as a strong second option. Since making his debut on October 12th, Perry has rushed for 396 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also has two catches for 57 yards and another touchdown. Aside from a very difficult matchup last week at Notre Dame, Perry has put up at least 65 yards and a touchdown in each game he has played this season. The sample size is small but it is impressive that his non-Notre Dame floor was 12.5 fantasy points. That is solid for a guy priced way down at $7K. However, we aren’t playing Carothers just because of his decent floor. He has a ton of upside as well. Three games ago against Tulane, Carothers had 185 total yards and 4 touchdowns (43 fantasy points).
Others to Consider
Xavier Jones, SMU ($9,600)
Jones is averaging 114.2 scrimmage yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game this season. The touchdown total is especially noteworthy, as is the fact that Jones has scored at least once in every single game this season. On a slate where very few of the backs have been consistently productive this season, Jones looks like a safe option with some touchdown upside. The matchup limits Jones to more of a GPP option. Navy is giving up just 3.3 yards per carry on the season and their slow-paced, run-heavy offense is going to shorten the game and limit the number of possessions for SMU.
Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma ($6,900)
Oklahoma has the 2nd-highest team total on the slate behind only LSU but is in the best fantasy spot overall considering LSU is likely to pull starters early. Just on a superficial level, it is an extremely attractive proposition to get the starting running back on the slate’s top projected offense for less than $7K. Brooks is now the clear go-to back for the Sooners with Trey Sermon out. Brooks didn’t log more than 10 carries in any of Oklahoma’s first eight games but had 15 and 18 the last two weeks. The Sooners should continue to feed him the ball considering his ridiculous 8.3 YPC career average. The matchup is difficult but not prohibitive. TCU is allowing 121.3 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game on the ground and got beat up on the ground by some of the better offenses they have faced (Oklahoma State, for example). It isn’t hard to project Brooks for 100+ total yards on Saturday. The only reason Brooks isn’t a core play is that Jalen Hurts is scoring almost all of the touchdowns for Oklahoma. Hurts has 28 through the air and 15 as a runner, while Brooks has scored just three total touchdowns on the season. Perhaps he is just due for a multi-touchdown game.
Wide Receiver
Positional Overview
As with the quarterback position, wide receiver is deep. We have a huge number of solid options to consider without any real slam dunk value plays.
As mentioned in the introduction, injuries will be key to determining value. RJ Turner ($7,000) and Taysir Mack ($6,800) would jump to the front of the line in terms of value plays should the other top wide receivers on Texas Tech and Pitt be ruled out.
There are a slew of strong pay-up options at the top. The LSU stars, Ja’Marr Chase ($9,700) and Justin Jefferson ($9,200) are in play despite the likelihood they aren’t on the field in the fourth quarter. James Proche ($9,400), Michael Pittman ($9,000), Devin Duvernay ($9,100), and Denzel Mims ($8,700) each look like good plays as well.
Core Plays
James Proche, SMU ($9,400)
Proche sees an insane amount of targets every week. He has averaged 16.4 targets per game over his last five and hasn’t seen fewer than 14 targets in a game since way back in Week 5. With SMU’s other star wide receiver, Reggie Roberson, sidelined, Proche was targeted 37 times in the last two weeks. In those two games, Proche averaged 13.5 catches for 158 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. He has 12 touchdowns on the season and has scored at least once in nine straight games. He probably won’t see 18+ targets for the third straight week in a slower-paced matchup against Navy but he still has the highest target projection on the slate by a decent margin.
Michael Pittman, USC ($9,000)
The USC passing offense has been on fire. In their last four games, the Trojans have averaged 377 passing yards and 3.75 passing touchdowns per game. With a great matchup against UCLA on tap, there is no reason to think this will slow down. Pittman has had some big games of late. Week 9 he put up a 7-156-2 line. Week 11 he had 13-146-0. Last week, 11-180-1. That is three games with 146+ receiving yards in his last four, with the only down week coming in a tough matchup against Oregon. Pittman has benefited somewhat from Tyler Vaughn’s injured ankle that limited him the last three games. However, Vaughn may still be less than 100% heading into Week 13. Pittman has averaged 11.6 targets per game over his last five outings. His volume gives him a strong floor and his big-play ability gives him plenty of upside as well.
Taysir Mack, Pitt ($6,800)
It has been pretty much a two-man show for Pitt at wide receiver. Mack has 59 catches for 693 yards while his running mate Maurice Ffrench has 75 catches for 606 yards. Ffrench is very questionable after breaking his jaw a few weeks ago, so Mack should see a boost in targets. The floor should be fairly high in relation to his sub-$7K price, which makes him a nice option for cash games. The only concern with Mack is touchdown upside. He has scored just twice this season and Pitt’s implied team total of 21.3 points ranks 20th out of 24 teams on the slate.
Others to Consider
RJ Turner, Texas Tech ($7,000)
You will begin to notice a theme with the cap-saving options highlighted this week. Turner is another wide receiver who looks to be underpriced because injuries have bumped him up the depth chart. Texas Tech’s top wide receiver, TJ Vasher, is suspended indefinitely. One of the top secondary targets, Dalton Rigdon, took a huge hit last week and is in concussion protocol. If both Rigdon and Vasher are out, Turner becomes a great play (along with Erik Ezukanma) as the top remaining target for Jett Duffey. Even if one of Vasher or Rigdon suits up, Turner is a fine play.
JD Spielman, Nebraska ($7,700)
Spielman and Wan’Dale Robinson are the two main playmakers on the Nebraska offense. Robinson is questionable and if he misses another week, Spielman should benefit with a boost in his number of targets. Spielman hasn’t had quite the season most expected but has strung together some productive games. He has averaged 5 catches for 97 yards and 0.3 touchdowns over his last three. Nebraska has the 7th-highest team total on the slate and those points are going to have to come from somewhere, making Spielman a solid bet to find the end zone. The yards should be there against a bad Maryland defense that is allowing 269 passing yards per game.
