FanDuel’s Week 9 Main Slate features 16 games and will kickoff at noon ET.
One of the most notable aspects of this slate is how many teams are facing tough defensive matchups. 27 of the 32 teams have a Vegas team total lower than their average PPG this season and for 11 teams, the Vegas team total is more than 30% below their scoring average to date. Throw many of those fantasy PPG totals out the window this week.
Weather may also be a major storyline. Over half of the games are expected to be played in the rain. Sometimes wet weather is just a minor inconvenience but other times it is so extreme that it has a major impact on the passing game (like Kentucky-Georgia last week). For now, it may make sense to use this factor only to break ties between equal players. As we get closer to kickoffs on Saturday, we will want to monitor the weather and be ready to make some lineup changes at quarterback and wide receiver if conditions end up being extreme.
This slate breakdown will go position-by-position, highlighting the top options and giving an overview of the toughest choices we face this week. The top options are broken down into two categories. Players listed as Core Plays are those who you can play with high confidence in both cash games and tournaments. Players listed as Worth Considering are viable as cost-saving options in your main lineup or high-upside options for tournaments
Quarterback
Positional Overview
As is becoming customary, it all starts with Jalen Hurts ($11,800). He looks like a must play in cash games and a strong option for tournaments as well. The introduction to this week’s slate of games highlighted the huge amount of teams on the slate expected to score fewer points than normal. Included in that list are many teams featuring highly productive quarterbacks. Penn State (Sean Clifford), Notre Dame (Ian Book), Ohio State (Justin Fields), LSU (Joe Burrow), and Texas (Sam Ehlinger) each have Vegas team totals between 10 and 20 points below their season averages.
For tournaments, Burrow ($10,400), Fields ($10,300), and Ehlinger ($11,000) are still very much in play despite the high prices and tough matchups but not the cash game plays or top GPP options they typically are.
The quarterbacks boasting plus matchups on the slate are worth noting because there are so few of them. Trevor Lawrence ($9,500), Jett Duffey ($8,800), and James Blackman ($7,800) are facing bad defenses and on teams with Vegas totals higher than their season scoring averages. Each look like great tournament options. Lawrence and Duffey are also in play for cash, though we again are facing the QB vs. RB choice at Super Flex. While you could play both, teammates Lawrence and Travis Etienne ($9,200) are a good example of the QB/RB dilemma since only one of the two is likely to have a big game. We can go back to the well with three running back lineups for the second straight week.
Core Plays
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($11,800)
Lately, the write-ups for Hurts as a top play have felt almost like cut and paste from previous weeks. Let’s touch on the basics briefly before looking more closely at the matchup:
(1) Hurts is a fantastic play because he puts up the passing numbers you’d expect from a $9,000 quarterback (296 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns) and the rushing numbers of a $9,000 running back (101 rushing yards and 1.4 touchdowns).
(2) It is worth paying way up, especially in cash games, even though it makes things more difficult at other positions.
(3) Most weeks there is some blowout risk. This week is no different, with Oklahoma favored by 23.5 over Kansas State.
(4) Hurts will be something like 50% owned in tournaments, so even if he hits his ceiling game you aren’t separating from the pack.
There are a couple interesting things worth noting when digging a bit deeper. First, Hurts’ passing numbers have been incredibly consistent. He has thrown exactly three touchdown passes in every game but one (when he threw two). That’s 2.86 touchdowns per game with a standard deviation of 0.4. His passing yardage numbers have mostly been in a narrow range as well. Aside from one big game against Texas Tech, he has thrown for between 228 and 332 yards every game. Oklahoma’s team total (40.5) is a bit lower than normal this week and Kansas State is weaker against the run so the projection is something like 260 passing and 2.5 touchdowns. This is a spot where Hurts is likely to hit or exceed his average rushing yardage number (101) but the big determinant of whether Hurts ends up being a great play this week or merely a good one is how many rushing touchdowns he has. He’s had at least one against every FCS opponent this year and if he runs a couple in this week, he will be a must own player.
Others to Consider
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech ($8,800)
Duffey has a great matchup against Kansas. The Jayhawks are giving up 472 yards and 33 points per game. They are equally vulnerable through the air and on the ground. Duffey projects to have a nice floor for a sub-$9K quarterback simply on passing volume. In his three starts, he is averaging 46 passing attempts per game. The question of upside is trickier because Duffey isn’t running as much as he did last year. Duffey played over half the snaps in six games last season and rushed for 80 or more yards in four of those games. He has yet to top 24 rushing yards in any game this season. We can play Duffey for the passing floor and hope some of the rushing upside shows up.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($9,500)
Clemson has the highest implied team total on the slate (46 points). The Tigers will be at home, under the lights, in front of a raucous home crowd facing a bad Boston College defense. They will also benefit from Boston College’s uptempo offensive pace. Only two defenses on this slate are giving up more passing yards (288 per game) than Boston College. It looks like a spot where Lawrence could put up huge numbers. However, we have felt that way in past weeks and he has put up solid but unspectacular fantasy numbers for a variety of reasons. The Clemson defense has been dominant the last two weeks, which has caused the Tigers offense to take their foot off the gas early. That is a major concern again this week with Clemson favored by 33.5 points. We also have to worry that Clemson will simply do most of their damage on the ground. These fear factors knock Lawrence out of the core play category but he still looks like a strong GPP option. If BC can put up some points to force the starters to play most of the way, Clemson is more than capable of scoring 7+ offensive touchdowns in this one.
Running Back
Positional Overview
Players like Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard are always in play for tournaments to some extent but there are too many talented backs with much better matchups and much more manageable salaries to pay all the way up for either of those guys.
The low-$9K range is especially loaded this week. Breece Hall ($9,000), Pooka Williams ($9,100), and Travis Etienne ($9,200) each look like great plays. Just a bit higher on the salary scale, Cam Akers ($9,800) and Najee Harris ($9,500) stand out as excellent options as well.
The one super salary saver on my radar is Bentavious Thompson ($5,700). He is the third string runner for UCF behind Adrian Killins and Otis Anderson and isn’t likely to have a big workload. However, both Killins and Anderson are smaller backs. Thompson will see an expanded role due to Greg McCrae’s injury and should get most of the goal line opportunities.
Core Plays
Travis Etienne, Clemson ($9,200)
Etienne looks like the top play on the slate. Clemson has a massive 46-point team total and projects to score 3.3 rushing touchdowns as a team in their matchup against Boston College. Etienne has a good chance for multiple scores. He could put up a gaudy yardage total as well. Over the past two weeks, he has produced 357 total yards, with 227 of those coming last week against Louisville. Based upon the matchup and recent results, Etienne looks to be underpriced by at least $1,000 and makes for a relatively affordable RB1 with a strong floor and huge upside.
Cam Akers, Florida State ($9,800)
Akers usage has been slightly inconsistent this season but Florida State has shown to be willing to feed him in close games. He has had 32+ touches in three different outings, including a 34-touch outing last week against Wake Forest. In that game, Akers put up 199 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Florida State is a 10-point home favorite with a 34-point team total against Syracuse. With rain in the forecast, FSU could again lean on a run-heavy game plan featuring Akers. Syracuse’s defense has been solid (49th in SP+), so it won’t be a walk in the park for Akers. However, with an expected workload of 25+ touches, it is hard to see him failing in this spot. If the underperforming Syracuse offense (90th in SP+) can’t get anything going, it could lead to an ideal game script for Akers and give him a legitimate shot at 30+ carries.
Others to Consider
Najee Harris, Alabama ($9,500)
Harris has massive potential with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Alabama is a heavy favorite (32 points) and Vegas pegs them with a 44-point implied team total. There should be plenty of touchdowns to be had and, unlike most weeks for Alabama, a big chunk of those scores could come on the ground. Backup quarterback Mac Jones looked shaky after entering the Tennessee game and this will not be the same offense with him at the helm. Alabama took some pressure off of him by going with a run-heavy approach, which included feeding it to Harris for a career-high 25 touches. He could easily surpass those numbers this week. In terms of upside, Harris is near the top of the list this week. The biggest concern is that the Crimson Tide might rotate the backs pretty heavily, especially if they jump out to a big early lead.
Pooka Williams, Kansas ($9,100)
With Khalil Herbert out for the season, Williams has taken on a true workhorse role of late. In his last two outings, he has had 48 carries and 9 catches for 372 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Kansas is a 4-point home underdog in a potential shootout against Texas Tech. This is a spot where Williams should see 25+ touches for the third straight week. Texas Tech has allowed 186 rushing yards per game. The Red Raiders were destroyed by Breece Hall last week to the tune of 256 total yards and 2 touchdowns.
Breece Hall, Iowa State ($9,000)
Hall has been nothing short of spectacular the last two weeks. He has rushed for 315 yards and 5 touchdowns and added another 78 yards as a receiver. His price took a massive jump from $6,000 last week to $9,000 this week and he’s probably still underpriced. Hall looks locked into a workload of 20+ touches per game and has a fantastic matchup against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys gave up 224 rushing yards to Baylor last week and are allowing 178 per game on the season. The Cyclones are 10.5-point home favorites and the game script should set up nicely for Hall again.
Wide Receiver
Positional Overview
Last week was one of the lowest-scoring wide receiver weeks in recent memory. It shouldn’t be quite as bad this week but it again feels like a week to try to save as much cap space as possible at the position. We can do so without sacrificing too much upside because there are plenty of talented receivers with strong volume projections in the $6,500 to $8,100 range.
The optimal build probably doesn’t include any expensive receivers but that also means we are going to get all of the top pass catchers at lower than normal ownership rates in tournaments. Paying up for one or more of the expensive guys should be a contrarian move with the potential to pay off big.
Core Plays
Collin Johnson, Texas ($7,900)
Johnson remains underpriced due to the injury that cost him most of September. He has quickly returned to being a featured piece in the Texas passing offense, catching 8 passes for 96 yards last week. There was some speculation Texas wide receiver Brennan Eagles might be out this week after skipping a practice but he seems to have smoothed things over with the coaching staff. Still, Johnson is the clear 1B target in this Texas passing offense with Devin Duvernay the 1A. The price is what is so attractive here. We are getting a talented player who should see approximately 10 targets for less than $8K. He is also a real red zone threat, which gives him some upside in what should be a competitive game against a TCU defense that is a bit down this season.
Justyn Ross, Clemson ($8,000) and Tee Higgins, Clemson ($8,100)
Ross has been the featured target the past two weeks, scoring three touchdowns. Higgins missed most of the game two weeks ago and was very quiet last week. Ross feels like the safer choice here given how he has performed of late but Higgins may have more upside. This is a game where Clemson should be able to dominate as huge home favorites. Top coaches like Dabo Swinney know they have to keep their star players happy. Thus, it makes sense to expect Higgins to get a few extra plays drawn up for him given the recent lack of production. In a game where Clemson has a 46-point team total, every key piece of the offense looks underpriced.
RJ Turner, Texas Tech ($6,500)
Of the sub-$7K options on the slate, Turner stands out. He has racked up 18 catches for 214 yards over the last two weeks. Turner has shown great burst for a guy his size after the catch and is emerging as Tech’s go-to option on the quick wide receiver screens they run so frequently. He still has yet to score on the season and isn’t getting many deep targets so the upside is just okay. It is hard to argue with any receiver getting this much volume in this price range, however. Turner makes it easier to fit in Hurts and a pair of top running backs.
Others to Consider
Jalen Reagor, TCU ($7,200) and Taye Barber, TCU ($5,500)
TCU’s woeful passing offense showed some signs of progress last week. Reagor hadn’t caught more than five passes in any game this season before catching 8 for 85 last week. He is an extremely talented and dynamic athlete who seems due to break off a long catch. Given the tackling we have seen from the Texas secondary this season, the matchup sets up for him to potentially break out of his season-long slump. Barber was expected to be the #2 behind Reagor this season after a solid 32 catch true freshman season. He finally made his season debut last week and caught 4 passes for 37 yards. The numbers were modest but Barber is a talented young receiver who is vastly underpriced given what his role should be moving forward.
The Pay-Up Options
In tournaments, there are a number of strong pay-up options at the position. We will briefly highlight some of the most interesting:
Trishton Jackson, Syracuse ($8,700) Nobody on the slate has seen more targets over the past two weeks than Trishton Jackson’s 23. Florida State is a pass funnel defense and has allowed 293 passing yards per game and Syracuse is expected to be playing from behind.
Gabriel Davis, UCF ($9,900) The Knights had a bye two weeks ago else Davis would be the slate’s target king. In his last two outings (going back to Week 6), he has seen 35 targets. The $9,900 salary is tough to fit in but Davis is worth targeting given the recent surge in targets.
Justin Jefferson, LSU ($9,400) The matchup against Auburn is tough but Jefferson has had some of his best games against the best competition (Texas and Florida). He is a good bet for 100 receiving yards and a touchdown but it is unclear just how much upside he has against a very good Auburn defense.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma ($9,600) You never know what you are going to get with Lamb. Over the past four weeks, Lamb has two games with 40+ points and two in the 8-to-15 point range. He isn’t getting a ton of targets most weeks and is reliant on long touchdowns to even approach hitting his salary-based expectations. He is dynamic enough that he gets loose for long scores on a shockingly large percentage of his touches, however. Thus, his obvious slate-breaking upside.
