The dynasty staffers at Footballguys will have regular Dynasty Roundtables throughout the offseason. This installment is focused on players available for the 2020 NFL Draft.
Most have Tua and Herbert as the top quarterbacks eligible for the 2020 Draft. Which one do you like better and why? Who is your next best quarterback?
Hindery
I view Tagovailoa as the better prospect. His adjusted passing yards per attempt (AY/A) last season was 12.8 and he completed 69% of his passes compared to Herbert’s 8.3 AY/A 8.3 and 50% completion percentage. Context matters and Tagovailoa definitely benefitted from playing with elite teammates, but the gap in productivity is way too high to simply chalk it up to the difference in surrounding talent. Herbert has slightly better raw tools than Tagovailoa and theoretically more upside but unless he makes a huge leap in his senior year, Tagovailoa should be the top quarterback.
Jake Fromm is the other quarterback who should go in the top half of the 2020 1st round. He flies slightly under the radar because he doesn’t have any elite physical traits. However, he does everything well and seems to have fantastic intangibles in terms of leadership, work ethic, and on-field poise. He may not be an impact fantasy quarterback in the NFL but he is a good bet to at least be a long-term starter, which still has real value in Superflex leagues.
Wood
They should be considered the top two prospects entering the year, but as my colleagues have said, there are a few other contenders who could change the narrative with strong seasons. First, let’s discuss the two favorites. Herbert was atop most draft lists entering last year, but he had a “down” season at Oregon while others vaulted into prominence. But Herbert can push for the top spot again with a bounce back year, which will have to include raising his completion percentage into the mid- to high-60% range. Herbert has a massive build, and the athleticism to make throws out of the pocket and under pressure. However, he’s a victim of his system in that he’s rarely asked to make more than one or two reads, and that’s going to remain a question mark for NFL personnel executives no matter what his year-end numbers look like. As for Tua, he’s very close to a can’t-miss prospect. The only reason there even an inch of doubt about his spot at 1.01 is because he played hurt much of last year, and that opened the door for Clemson to manhandle Alabama in the national championship game. But let’s be clear – Trevor Lawrence is a once-in-a-generation talent, and will be the 1st overall pick in 2021 barring a major injury. Being the 2nd-best quarterback in college behind Lawrence – who is rightfully compared to Peyton Manning and John Elway in terms of pedigree – is no small feat. Tua can make any throw he’s required to, and unlike Herbert, he’s shown the ability to make complex reads.
I agree Jake Fromm will be a 1st rounder next year, too, and if Georgia has the kind of season they’re capable of, it could be Fromm who goes first overall. While I don’t think he’s likely to overtake both Herbert and Tua, it’s not impossible given his pedigree and the pro-style system he’s played in at Georgia. Jacob Eason at Washington and K.J. Costello are equally capable of moving into the first round with strong seasons.
Waldman
I haven’t performed a lot of quarterback evaluations for 2020, but I watched enough of Herbert last year to know that I prefer Tagovailoa. The Bama quarterback is a more advanced pocket player and handles pressure with greater maturity.
Tefertiller
I, too, have Tua Tagovailoa ranked highest … and by a decent margin. His effortless arm strength will help in the transition to the NFL. I like Jordan Love as a player to watch. He plays at Utah State and has a live arm He and Herbert gain the benefit of playing against weaker defenses most weeks, especially in comparison to Tagovailoa.
The list of running backs eligible next year is impressive. Who are your top three or four?
Hindery
D’Andre Swift- Swift has the perfect game for the modern NFL. He has just enough size and toughness to be an early-down back and should be a major weapon on third downs due to his receiving ability. You can reasonably compare his fantasy upside to Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey because of his potential to be an 80-catch per season guy in the right NFL system. Swift might not have quite the athleticism of those elite NFL backs but is close enough to think he could quickly emerge as a top-10 fantasy back in PPR leagues if he continues to improve and lands in a good situation.
Travis Etienne- As a pure runner, Etienne is as good as any recent college prospect. He is just so explosive and has an uncanny ability to run through arm tackles and maintain his balance. Etienne should test really well and could run in the 4.40 range. His elite long speed should get him drafted early. The only hesitancy with going all in on Etienne is that he hasn’t shown much at all as a pass catcher. He’s only 20-years old and was less polished than a lot of other top prospect entering college, so maybe the receiving skills will come in time. If he doesn’t develop more in that area, he might be more of a two-down back in the NFL, which would limit his fantasy upside a bit.
Beyond the top two, I have an extremely tough time differentiating and ranking the next tier. The three I probably feel most confident in are:
Eno Benjamin- He seems similar to David Montgomery in terms of strengths and weaknesses. He is a workhorse at the college level and is also an above-average receiver, which makes him intriguing as a potential 3-down back at the next level. As with Montgomery (who fell to the middle of the 3rd round in 2019), I’m not sure if Benjamin is athletic enough for a team to use a 1st or 2nd-round pick on him. Plenty of 3rd-round backs have fantasy success, so it isn’t a major concern. However, Benjamin might be more landing-spot dependent than some other prospects. If it doesn’t require a premium pick to acquire him, he could land behind an established young starter.
Cam Akers- Akers also has the well-rounded skill set to emerge as a top fantasy back in the NFL and was one of the top overall recruits in the nation two years ago. He is hard to evaluate because the Florida State offense was so atrocious last season. Akers was consistently hit in the backfield before he even had a chance to make a move.
Jonathan Taylor- Taylor is also somewhat difficult to evaluate but for the opposite reason — he regularly had big holes to run through in Wisconsin’s running back-friendly offense and he was often able to build up a nice head of steam. Plus, his shortcomings as a receiver are even more concerning than Etienne’s because we know Taylor made improving as a pass catcher a major priority after his freshman season and he still struggled as a sophomore.
Beyond those five, J.K. Dobbins, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, and Kylin Hill each look like solid bets to go in the first three or four rounds of the draft as well. My favorite sleeper is Notre Dame’s Jafar Armstrong, a converted wide receiver in the mold of C.J. Prosise.
Wood
I’m not sure I see the 2020 running back class as particularly dynamic. There are always good backs available and 2020 will have its share, but I would push back on the notion it’s an unusually strong crop of tailbacks.
I respect Dan’s analysis, so it’s eyebrow-raising to see him so high on D’Andre Swift. While Swift’s film is impressive, there isn’t exactly a lot of it yet. Georgia is somewhat of a football factory, and Swift hasn’t done anything his stablemates haven’t done in recent seasons. He does appear to have great vision, and patience to let his blockers do their jobs. But he hasn’t been given a heavy workload yet, and I need to see him thrive in a full-time role before putting him atop my dynasty prospects. I’m not saying he can’t figure into the top-3 when the season’s over, but he’s too green right now to earn that by reputation. For me, the two most intriguing running backs are Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor. I know it’s de rigueur to knock Wisconsin running backs as system guys, but Taylor shows explosiveness and power at the point of contact that translates to the NFL level. Etienne is a do-everything back who can make plays inside and outside the hash marks. He’ll be a 3-down starter at the NFL level regardless of system.
Waldman
I dove into the running back class early and Swift stands out. I am not sure he has the top gear—he can beat safeties and threaten some angles of corners but he is nowhere near Etienne’s realm of long speed—that usually vaults skilled runners into the top round of the NFL Draft, but he has everything else you want at the position.
Swift has impressive burst, mature judgment between the tackles, an effective low-center of gravity, and excellent hands and pass tracking.
Etienne improved his functional strength as a Sophomore, and it raised his game. I like his pad level and creativity in tight spaces. He could be the best prospect Clemson has produced at the position since Terry Allen.
One thing I believe stands out about the Rookie Scouting Portfolio’s analysis of running backs is its ability to effectively judge a player’s abilities independently from his supporting cast. Taylor’s value will be questioned because of his line but it shouldn’t. He’s a skilled decision-maker with good vision to read multiple levels of the defense. While the depth of his vision is strong, the best NFL backs also see the width of the field. I need to see more of Taylor’s width of vision. Still, I am confident that he will be a good fit somewhere in the NFL and offer some team a game with similarities to Nick Chubb.
Trey Sermon has a curvilinear style of movement that’s a deceptive archetype for many evaluators. He will look good on tape but there’s a risk his workouts will stop his stock because the expectations of times that scouts apply drills aren’t realistic for Sermon’s archetype—think Dalvin Cook, Darrel Henderson, and CFL-leading rusher James Wilder, Jr. Still, Sermon has game. There are several backs with a chance to overtake him in terms of desirability in this class, but he’s worth pointing out at this stage and remembering if and when the more primitive aspects of the evaluation game earn too much focus in late February.
Tefertiller
I like Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor tops. Etienne has blazing speed and is short – but definitely not small. He uses good pad level and is able to run through tackles. Taylor displays outstanding vision and the burst to slip through holes between the tackles. I have Swift third at this time.
Most rankings have Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) tops for the wide receivers. Do you agree? Who are your top candidates to drafted high in next year's NFL Draft?
Hindery
I believe Jeudy deserves to be the top-rated receiver in the class. He doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses. Jeudy has decent size, elite playing speed and quickness, impeccable technique, and excellent hands. He’s also been extremely productive at a young age in the SEC. I will be surprised if he isn’t a Top-10 overall draft pick next spring.
It is wide open behind Jeudy and ranking the next few receivers is largely dependent upon what attributes you view as most important for a prospect entering today’s NFL. My personal view is that teams are now putting less of a premium on size and instead prioritizing deep speed, quickness, and the ability to gain yards after the catch. As such, I favor Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs III, and CeeDee Lamb a bit more highly than the bigger-bodied guys. Reagor and Ruggs are usually available a bit later in devy drafts than some of the other top prospects, which makes them especially attractive targets.
Of the larger receivers, Laviska Shenault Jr. stands out due to his freakish athleticism. He’s still raw but his upside is tantalizing. Tee Higgins also seems like a safe bet to be a top-40 pick. He’s not a burner but does seem to have above-average quickness for his size.
Overall, this wide receiver class looks like it could be the best to enter the NFL since the loaded 2014 group.
Bischoff
Dan, I’m going to talk about Laviska Shenault Jr. and in no way is this a rebuttal or am I disagreeing with your analysis. Just something that I think about when evaluating players at times.
Laviska Shenault Jr. is going to cause some disagreement when it comes to his evaluation entering the NFL. He’s going to get dinged as raw, but we need to be careful when it comes to putting the raw label on his game.
Colorado knows the best thing to do is to get the ball in Shenault’s hands and let him make plays, whether that’s throwing it to him, or handing it off to him. He displays a rare blend of size, speed, quickness and he runs like a powerful running back with the ball in his hands.
The Buffaloes do as much as they can to scheme him open, utilizing quick outs and screen passes to get the ball in his hands quickly.
Colorado will also motion him from out wide into the backfield to take quick handoffs when they need a few yards. It seems as if he is a gadget-type player without a well-rounded skill set. Sometimes it can appear as if Shenault can’t run routes like a conventional receiver, but that’s where we need to be careful
Shenault can run routes with precision and does so when asked, easily creating separation to get open. He can function outside, winning at the line of scrimmage and down the field.
We should not punish him as he is not always asked to function as a true outside receiver, even though he is capable on film. The raw label might not apply to Shenault even though Colorado uses him in that way. I’d have him as WR1 over all the others, but I’ll admit that his physicality is what sets him apart for me.
Wood
Anyone who doesn’t have Jeudy atop their receiver draft board is just trying to be contrarian. Things change over a college season and it’s possible Jeudy can fall off the perch, but if we were drafting right now there aren’t many, if any, general managers who wouldn’t take Jeudy first at the position. What more does he need to prove? He dominates against the best opposition in the NCAA, can run a full route tree, and is dangerous at the point of attack.
Waldman
Jerry Jeudy is the best receiver I have studied in this class. By the time this is posted, there will be a pair of plays from Jeudy’s freshman-year spring game that will be posted on the RSP site. They were so telling about his tracking and catching that I drafted Jeudy in every Devy league where freshmen were eligible.
The route running is what most will fawn over because it is outstanding, but what I saw from this pair of plays offers a glimpse into what separates a top player from a strong technician.
Jeudy is absolutely worth consideration as a 1.01 dynasty pick.
I like what I have seen from Laviska Shenault, Collin Johnson, Bryan Edwards, and several others. A player who really impressed me, but I don’t see much love for (yet) is Ohio State’s K.J. Hill. He is also a skilled route runner with a versatile game. Keep an eye on him.
In a 1QB dynasty league, who would be your top three picks if drafting today?
Hindery
The top three of D’Andre Swift, Jerry Jeudy, and Travis Etienne are so close that it makes sense to factor in team needs and the specifics of your league’s scoring in breaking what is essentially a tie. It also comes down to how much of a gambler you are. Jeudy is the safest pick in the class and one of the safer devy prospects in recent memory. Swift has the most upside given the extreme fantasy value of three-down, workhorse running backs.
Without factoring in team needs, and in a vacuum, I would take D’Andre Swift at 1.01. In each of the last three seasons, running backs have finished 1-2-3 in non-quarterback fantasy scoring in both PPR and standard leagues. The position also has less depth than wide receiver, so I have been breaking ties in favor of running backs in recent years. In PPR leagues, I am taking Jerry Jeudy at 1.02. I’ve gone back and forth on this over the last couple months but keep coming back to concerns about Etienne’s fantasy upside if he isn’t a true three-down back. That leaves Travis Etienne as the choice at 1.03. In standard scoring or leagues that give points per carry, I would flip flop Etienne and Jeudy.
You really can’t go wrong with any of these three, which is why potentially early 2020 rookie picks are so valuable.
Wood
- 1.01 – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
- 1.02 – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
- 1.03 – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
Waldman
At this point...
- 1.01/1.02 – Jeudy/Swift (close call for me and depends on league format)
- 1.03 – Etienne, but Tua is rising fast.
Tefertiller
- 1.01 – Jerry Jeudy
- 1.02 – Travis Etienne
- 1.03 – Jonathan Taylor