DraftKings GPP Domination: Conference Championships

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments on the Conference Championship Round slate.

Despite just two games being played this Sunday, DraftKings is still running huge tournaments, including the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire, which pays $1 million to first-place. Finding edges on a slate with so much roster overlap between entries is hard, but not impossible. As usual, it starts with game-scripting and leveraging projected ownership.

With those two goals in mind, let’s get to the games and the players with the best chances of helping you win a GPP. Thanks to everyone for reading this year.

Titans @ Chiefs

Vegas Line 22.25 29.75
Predicted Score 17 30

Game Script

If someone had told you before the season Ryan Tannehill would be facing off with Patrick Mahomes II in the AFC championship, how would the game have played out in your head? While plenty has changed since Week 1, don’t be so quick to abandon your priors. The Titans have been extraordinarily lucky. They got past the Patriots despite scoring on only two offensive drives and all of their points against the Ravens came following turnovers. Patrick Mahomes II is back to playing at an otherworldly level and is unlikely to provide the Titans defense with many openings to be opportunistic. Handing off to Derrick Henry 30+ times is a luxury Tennesee shouldn’t be afforded in this matchup. Tannehill will be forced to prove his efficiency hasn’t been a fluke and he’ll finally fail in front of a hostile crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.

High Exposure Plays

Patrick Mahomes II ($7,700) - Mahomes is the mega-chalk on this slate but he’s also by far the most likely quarterback to appear in first-place lineups. When Kansas City lost at Tennesee in Week 10, Mahomes piled up 446 passing yards and three touchdowns (32.84 DraftKings points) despite missing the previous two games with a dislocated knee cap and being down two starting offensive linemen. Game theory is the only reason to consider a fade, but Mahomes’ median projection is roughly 40% higher than the next closest quarterback. Lock him into at least half your lineups and differentiate elsewhere.

Tyreek Hill ($7,200) - Maybe we’ll get a slight ownership discount on Hill after three consecutive games with five or fewer targets and last week’s Travis Kelce eruption? Despite the lack of recent production, Hill remains the most dangerous wide receiver in the game and the ultimate high-variance, high-ceiling GPP option. Hill posted season highs of 11 receptions and 157 receiving yards against Tennessee in Week 10. The Titans struggled to defend alpha-dog wide receivers all season and Hill’s speed presents a clear mismatch for most of their corners. Anything short of at least one reception of 40+ yards and a touchdown would be a letdown in this spot.

Damien Williams ($7,000) - DraftKings corrected Williams’ price, making him a little harder to trust this week. But if we’re operating under the assumption the Chiefs are going to roll over the Titans at home, the touchdown-dependent Williams is once again set up nicely for multiple scores. Anyone who worried Andy Reid was resting LeSean McCoy for the playoffs got dunked on by Williams in the Divisional Round. He played on 97% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps, handled all of their rushing attempts, received six targets out of the backfield, and scored three total touchdowns, giving him six over the previous three games. Williams’ rushing upside might be capped by Tennesee’s solid defensive front, but his usage in the receiving game and at the goal-line makes him worthy of a minimum 40% exposure.

Jonnu Smith ($3,400) - On a slate featuring Travis Kelce and George Kittle, punting tight end is the clearest path to creating a unique lineup. Assuming the Titans are forced into a (relatively) pass-heavy game script, Smith, who played on 95% of Tennesee’s snaps last week, should see four-to-five targets. In addition to quietly being one of the most athletically gifted tight ends in the league, Smith’s matchup makes him an excellent tournament option. Opponents targeted their tight end on 148 pass attempts against the Chiefs this season, the second-highest total in the league.

Also in the Player Pool

Player Pos Opponent Salary Proj. Own % Comment
Derrick Henry RB @KC $8,700 56% Game script be damned, he's a mismatch for the KC DEF.
Sammy Watkins WR TEN $4,600 32% Finally showed signs of life last week.
Demarcus Robinson WR TEN $3,300 12% Coming off awful game but on the field too much to ignore.
Mecole Hardman WR TEN $3,800 9% Thin due to playing time but upside for big plays and kick return TD.
A.J. Brown WR @KC $5,200 46% Affordable given ceiling and the game script fits.
Corey Davis WR @KC $4,000 26% Ceiling is only theoretical but capable of garbage time production.
Adam Humphries WR @KC $3,000 1% Sounds like slot man could return. Cheap source of 4-6 targets if active.
Travis Kelce TE TEN $7,100 42% Price increase, accumulating injuries make him a slight fade.
Blake Bell TE TEN $2,800 2% Plus athlete seeing the field more since Week 15.
Kansas City Chiefs DST TEN $3,100 26% Always in play at home. Should benefit from game flow.

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