DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 16

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • New Orleans at Tennessee is the only game on the main slate that opened with an over/under above 50 points, but the collective ownership of Saints and Titans players should remain low-to-moderate (outside of Michael Thomas). Without a true marquee game to stack, we should expect the crowd to chase players from heavy home favorites in Seattle, Atlanta, and LA (Chargers).

  • Lamar Jackson ($8,000) remains atop the quarterback wishlist for most entrants but his price is finally bordering on prohibitive. Attractive matchups for Russell Wilson ($7,000), Dak Prescott ($6,400), and Matt Ryan ($6,200) should keep Jackson’s ownership in check. There will be less spending below $6K at quarterback, but Philip Rivers ($5,700), and the almost-free Will Grier ($4,300) give the crowd some inexpensive plays to consider.

  • Christian McCaffrey ($10,100) will probably draw his usual 15-20% ownership, but it will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to his potentially lower floor with Grier at quarterback. Due to the price savings, it’s likely Chris Carson ($8,500), Saquon Barkley ($8,300), and Leonard Fournette ($7,200) are the crowd’s main targets in the top running back tier. Juicy matchups for fairly-priced RB2s Joe Mixon ($6,600), Devonta Freeman ($6,000), and Melvin Gordon III ($5,600) will make them common selections, but with Josh Jacobs out, DeAndre Washington ($4,000) will be a go-to option for those looking to spend more at wide receiver or tight end.

  • Michael Thomas ($9,300) deserves to be priced above every non-McCaffrey running back and Julio Jones is coming off a 20 target, 41-point eruption in Atlanta’s first game without Calvin Ridley in the lineup. It’s safe to assume the majority of the field will be spending heavily on their WR1. If stock roster builds feature a quarterback over $6K, a high-end RB1, and Mixon at RB2, there won’t be much room left for a second high-end wide receiver. Matchup plays like DK Metcalf ($5,900), Tyler Boyd ($5,800), Christian Kirk ($5,600), Michael Gallup ($5,500), and Mike Williams ($5,000) should see their ownership inflated as a result. WR3 is a likely punt spot.

  • Zach Ertz ($6,400) will be a popular standalone play at tight end, but there isn’t enough value available elsewhere to jam him into common roster builds. Instead, look for the crowd to zero in on one of several thriftier options at the position. Austin Hooper ($4,400) appears mispriced by about $1K headed into a cakewalk matchup against Jacksonville. Jacob Hollister ($4,200) gets the Cardinals, who have somehow failed to stop a tight end all season. And Hunter Henry ($4,700) and Mike Gesicki ($3,600) are each locked into solid target volume in great matchups vs.Oakland and Cincinnati, respectively.

  • It can be argued Denver ($3,500 vs. Detroit) and Indianapolis ($3,300 vs. Grier in his first start) are the two defenses with the best matchups on the slate. As usual, there isn’t much reason to break the bank at the position. Looking lower, the Giants ($2,800) are another logical option in a matchup against mistake-prone rookie Dwayne Haskins.

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