DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 15

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • Several games on this week’s slate could go back and forth, but only Houston at Tennessee has reached a 50-point over/under. It’s somewhat underwhelming for a marquee game but will command heavy ownership nonetheless. Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins stacks run back with electric rookie A.J. Brown will be a common starting point for roster builds. The same holds true for Ryan Tannehill-Brown-Hopkins game stacks. Contrarian options who could play a larger than expected role include Houston’s running backs and both teams’ tight ends.

  • Only $1K separates the top-12 quarterbacks this week, which will lead to flat ownership rates at the position, as usual. In addition to Watson and Tannehill, the crowd will be drawn to Patrick Mahomes II ($7,100) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) in the top salary tier (despite their respective hand injuries). Kyler Murray ($5,600) is the only attractive punt option, which should leave the entire group of signal-callers priced from $6K-$6.3K lightly-owned. Due to the tightly-bunched pricing, quarterback won’t make much of a difference in this week’s common construction.

  • Rashaad Penny’s torn ACL and Seattle’s matchup against Carolina’s awful rush defense will conspire to make Chris Carson ($7,500) this week’s running back chalk. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) and Saquon Barkley ($7,700) should be neck and neck behind Carson in terms of popularity, which will leave most entrants searching for a bargain-priced RB2. Josh Jacobs is a lynchpin on this slate. If Jacobs plays (which seems likely as of this writing), we’ll see guys like Phillip Lindsay ($5,600) Raheem Mostert ($5,200), and Patrick Laird ($4,500) pick up steam, but if he misses a second-straight game, expect DeAndre Washington ($4,700) to get piled on in an enticing spot vs. Jacksonville. Regardless of Jacobs’ status, lineups built around two or more high-priced running backs will be the exception.

  • Hopkins ($8,000) and Chris Godwin ($7,700) are the main reasons why heavy spending at wide receiver will be more common than at running back. And despite being priced up for the matchup against Tampa Bay, Kenny Golladay ($7,200) gives the crowd another expensive option to consider with the news Marvin Jones Jr was placed on IR. It’s possible to get to A.J. Brown at WR3 in the common construction, but players in the $5K range like Christian Kirk ($5,500) and Darius Slayton ($4,700) fit more comfortably under the cap.

  • George Kittle ($6,200), Zach Ertz ($6,000), and Darren Waller ($5,500) each have exploitable on-paper matchups. They’ll be popular standalone options but spending up at quarterback, RB1, WR1, and WR2 doesn’t leave much room for a luxury purchase at tight end. Tyler Higbee’s price ($3,900) has been painfully slow to rise after back-to-back 100-yard outings and Ian Thomas ($3,100) is still cheap following an impressive start in relief of Greg Olsen last week. Assuming Olsen and Gerald Everett remain sidelined, Higbee and Thomas will be heavily-owned salary savers.

  • Most entrants will allocate about $2.5K-$3.5K at defense/special teams. On the low end, the Lions ($2,300) are mispriced relative to their upside playing against Jameis Winston at home. At the high end of that range, the crowd will (correctly) jump at the chance to roster the Eagles, who draw Dwayne Haskins playing at less than 100% health. The Giants ($2,700) and Packers ($3,000) are the logical mid-range options given their respective opponents.

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