DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 14

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • No games on the main slate (or even the primetime slates) have an over/under exceeding 48 points this week. Kansas City at New England is a marquee game for real-life purposes but probably won’t get piled on too heavily for DFS. The most popular team stacks are more likely to come from huge home favorites in Green Bay (-13 vs. Washington) and Houston (-9 vs. Denver). Full game stacks from Carolina at Atlanta (over/under 48) and Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (over/under 47.5) should also be common.

  • With Patrick Mahomes II ($7,000) disappointing in each of his last two games and headed into a difficult matchup in Foxborough, the crowd will look to Lamar Jackson ($7,400) first at quarterback. Game environments will boost the popularity of other pricy options, including Aaron Rodgers ($6,800), Deshaun Watson ($6,500), and Jameis Winston ($6,400), but ownership at the position should be especially flat this week with matchup plays like Baker Mayfield ($6,300), Sam Darnold ($6,000), and Ryan Tannehill ($5,800) also available further down the board.

  • Common roster construction hinges on Dalvin Cook’s availability in a cupcake home matchup against the Lions. While Cook (shoulder/chest) says he’s playing, we’ll have to stay glued to the news cycle for hints about his usage right up until kickoff. If it becomes clear he’ll be out or limited, Alexander Mattison ($4,500) becomes one of the chalkiest plays of the season. Playing Mattison would make spending on Christian McCaffrey ($10,300), one of the top quarterbacks, and a high-end WR1 much easier. Should Mattison remain in his usual backup role, we may be looking at more Patrick Laird ($4,100) lineups than anyone ever thought possible.

  • Davante Adams ($8,000) should lead the way at wide receiver after he delivered a multi-touchdown game for 28% of Milly Maker entrants last week. Michael Thomas ($8,300), Chris Godwin ($7,300) and Mike Evans ($7,200) will also command some attention in the top salary tier, but lineups with more than one receiver priced over $7K will be the exception. Look for significant ownership to settle in the $5K-$6K range, where Courtland Sutton ($6,400), Tyler Boyd ($5,900), and Robby Anderson ($5,100) stand out for their recent production. Despite disappointing all season long, Odell Beckham Jr’s ($6,300) low salary, brand name, and a cushy matchup against the Bengals make him a fit in stock roster builds at a similar price point.

  • Tight end is another position where an injury-replacement could open up spending at other positions. Assuming Greg Olsen scratches due to the scary concussion he left with last week, Ian Thomas ($2,500) will appear in a ton of lineups. Even if Thomas doesn’t catch on for some reason, spending at the position should remain moderate with Jack Doyle ($4,600) continuing to operate as Indianapolis de facto WR1.

  • There should be enough cap space left for most entrants to splurge at team defense. The Packers ($4,000) and Vikings ($3,800) are the most attractive options with Cleveland ($3,600) and Houston ($3,300) following closely behind.

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