DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 13

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • With three games already played on Thanksgiving and two more scheduled for prime time, the main slate features only 11 games this week. Some of our favorite offenses to target -- Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, and Seattle -- are off the board, leaving Oakland at Kansas City (over/under 51) as the marquee game for stacking purposes. Contrarian ways to gain access to the high total include LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams for the Chiefs, and perhaps Zay Jones or Keelan Doss for the Raiders with Hunter Renfrow nursing a punctured lung. Other popular matchup-based offenses to stack include Green Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville.

  • Patrick Mahomes II ($7,400), Lamar Jackson ($7,000), and Jameis Winston ($6,300) should top most entrants’ quarterback wishlists, yet we appear headed for Andy Dalton ($4,700) chalk week. The news Dalton would be back behind the wheel for the Bengals broke after DraftKings released Week 13 pricing, leaving him with a backup salary in a matchup against the Jets’ talent-deficient secondary. Dalton and his cheap stacking partners make it easy to splurge on Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), which will vault all parties involved to inflated ownership levels.

  • Spending up to McCaffrey should have lots of folks searching for a low-to-mid-range RB2, though Derrick Henry ($7,600), Leonard Fournette ($7,500), Saquon Barkley ($7,400), and Josh Jacobs ($6,900) will be popular standalone plays. The most common cap-saving options include Phillip Lindsay ($5,000), Jonathan Williams ($5,300), and Miles Sanders ($5,400).

  • A look at the top wide receiver choices makes it clear why the majority of the field will shop for a thrifty RB2. Tyreek Hill ($8,900), Chris Godwin ($7,700), Mike Evans ($6,900), Davante Adams ($7,00), and D.J. Moore ($6,800) each have highly-exploitable matchups. Tyler Boyd ($5,500) will be chalky as a mid-range WR2 whether he’s stacked with Dalton or not, which is where common roster construction will begin to diverge.

  • A portion of the crowd will be tempted to pay a premium for Travis Kelce ($7,200) and Zach Ertz ($6,700) at tight end, while others will assume Jack Doyle’s ($3,300) production will rise with Eric Ebron now on injured reserve. Kelce/Ertz lineups are most likely to have a dollar-store WR3 like Auden Tate ($3,800) or Allen Hurns ($4,00), while those who punt with Doyle can get up to guys like Adams, Evans, and D.J. Chark Jr ($6,600).

  • Common roster construction rarely features heavy spending at DST and this week should be no different. The Panthers ($3,800) will attract the crowd against Washington as 10-point home favorites, but $2.5-$3K is the maximum budget most people will allocate to the position. Cleveland ($2,600), Baltimore ($2,800), and the LA Chargers ($3,100) look like the usual suspects.

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