DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 12

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • This week’s marquee game is Tampa Bay at Atlanta (over/under 51.5). Expect to see plenty of Matt Ryan stacks (with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, or both) run back with either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. If you want to take the road less traveled to gain exposure to Buccaneers or Falcons players, consider targeting the starting running backs -- Ronald Jones II and Brian Hill. Other common team stacks will include the Browns, Saints, and Seahawks.

  • As much as 50% of the total quarterback ownership could settle on Ryan ($6,700), Jameis Winston ($6,200), Russell Wilson ($6,800), and Drew Brees ($6,600). There are a handful of sub-$6K signal-callers with attractive matchups (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, and Jeff Driskel to name a few) but it’s a safe bet most of our opponents will spend up at quarterback.

  • Christian McCaffrey will draw his usual ~20% ownership, but his salary is prohibitive alongside a stack of pricy Atlanta and Tampa Bay wide receivers. Alvin Kamara ($8,200) looked all the way back to his pre-injury form last week and should be the most sought after RB1. Look for moderate spending at RB2, with matchup plays Derrick Henry ($6,900), Phillip Lindsay ($5,200), and Miles Sanders (assuming Jordan Howard scratches again) leading the way.

  • Ridley’s fair salary ($6,500) and huge Week 11 (31.3 DraftKings points) could make him an even more popular stacking partner for Ryan than Jones. Using Ridley rather than Jones also makes it easier to run back a highly-correlated game stack with Godwin ($7,200) or Evans ($7,300). Most entrants will bargain hunt for a WR3, which should inflate the ownership of DeVante Parker ($5,200), who has back-to-back 10-target games since Preston Williams was lost for the season.

  • An overall lack of value at running back and wide receiver leaves little room for premium tight end spending. Zach Ertz ($6,000) and Darren Waller ($5,700) will be popular standalone plays, but look for the crowd to gravitate towards Dallas Goedert ($3,700) with Philadelphia short on healthy pass-catchers and facing a vulnerable Seattle secondary.

  • After Ryan Finley fluttered one interceptable pass after another against Oakland last week, Pittsburgh’s defense ($4,000) will cause an ownership pileup. The majority of lineups, however, won’t have the leftover cap space for a luxury purchase at DST. Mid-priced options like the Bills ($3,400), Saints ($3,300), and Lions ($3,100) will appear more frequently in common roster builds.

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