DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 10

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • Most of the field will be fixated on two games this week — Arizona at Tampa Bay and Atlanta at New Orleans. The key contributors from all four teams will be mainstays in tournament lineups. If you’re looking for sneaky exposure to the 50+ point implied totals in each game, David Johnson, O.J. Howard, Ted Ginn Jr, and the returning Tre’Quan Smith have high enough ceilings and low enough projected ownership to qualify.

  • Quarterback ownership will be flat but bunched together at the top price tier, where Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes II will be among the most popular plays. We can safely expect the majority of our opponents to spend at least $6,500 at the position. Ryan Tannehill ($5,100) profiles as the most common punt option as he tries to keep up with Kansas City at home.

  • About 25% of the field in last week’s Milly Maker spent $10,000 of their cap on Christian McCaffrey in a poor on-paper matchup. After watching McCaffrey shred the Titans for 40.6 DraftKings points, it’s hard to imagine less than 30% of entrants squeezing him in at $10,500 this week. Saquon Barkley ($8,800) will join McCaffrey as high-priced chalk, leaving little room for spending at RB2. Common roster construction should inflate the ownership of low-to-mid price backs like David Montgomery ($5,300), Devin Singletary ($5,000), and Ronald Jones II ($4,300).

  • One expensive wide receiver will appear on most rosters, with Mike Evans or Michael Thomas the leading candidates. Heavy spending at quarterback, RB1, and WR1 means the majority of our opponents will be combing the $4K-$5K range to fill their other two wide receiver spots. Expect to see guys like Zach Pascal ($5,300), D.J. Moore ($5,200), Christian Kirk ($5,200), Jamison Crowder ($5,000), DeVante Parker ($4,800), and Curtis Samuel ($4,600) rounding out plenty of rosters this week. The easiest path to a contrarian lineup might be to build around multiple wide receivers in the $6K-$7K range.

  • Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Hunter Henry are missing from the slate and Travis Kelce’s production hasn’t matched his TE1 salary all season. Austin Hooper ($5,500) and Mark Andrews ($5,200) will attract significant ownership as a result, but this week’s stock rosters won’t have enough room to fit them. Bargain tight ends like Jack Doyle ($3,600), Greg Olsen ($3,600), and possibly even Mike Gesicki ($3,100) should command more attention than they probably warrant as entrants look for ways to keep their McCaffrey lineups under the cap.

  • Baltimore and Indianapolis jump out as high-priced defenses to target, but similar to tight end, DST is a difficult position to splurge on if you’re trying to fit McCaffrey, Evans/Thomas, and an expensive quarterback. Lower-priced options that should attract the crowd include the Rams ($3,000), Giants ($2,800), and Browns ($2,500).

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