DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 8

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • We’ve reached the point in the season where how well we process injury information is almost as important as game theory, projections, or roster construction. The big injuries hanging over this week’s slate belong to Alvin Kamara and David Johnson. Much of what you’re about to read regarding common roster construction will shift if Latavius Murray ($5,800) and Chase Edmonds ($6,200) resume the respective workhorse roles they inherited in Week 7.

  • This week’s most sought after game environments are Seattle at Atlanta and Oakland at Houston, both of which opened with 51-point totals. The crowd just watched Aaron Rodgers put up a vintage performance against Oakland’s pass defense, which will inflate Deshaun Watson’s ownership despite his overall QB2 salary ($7,100). DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) got back on track last week but may not be Watson’s most common stacking partner, as the inexpensive Kenny Stills ($4,700) will replace Will Fuller V in the starting lineup. The obvious run-back option in game-stacks is Darren Waller ($5,900), fresh off his second 30+ point output on DraftKings this season. If you want to get sneaky with your exposure to the Texans, consider taking a strong position on Carlos Hyde ($4,700) with Houston favored by nearly a touchdown at home. Keke Coutee ($4,100) is a viable pivot off Stills at about half the projected ownership.

  • Like Watson, Russell Wilson ($7,200) is also priced way up to account for his matchup. The Falcons are allowing 32 points per game this season, which paves the way to heavy ownership for Wilson, Chris Carson ($7,000), and Tyler Lockett ($7,000). How the crowd reacts to the Atlanta side will depend upon Matt Ryan’s ($6,000) status. Assuming Ryan can play through an ankle sprain, Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($5,600), and Austin Hooper ($5,500) should reach moderate ownership, especially with the Mohamed Sanu trade opening up an additional six targets per game.

  • Watson and Wilson will be joined by Jared Goff ($6,800) in the top ownership tier. Goff, who faces the dismal Cincinnati defense in London, was surprisingly the highest-owned quarterback in last week’s Milly Maker. The high-priced trio could account for about 40% of the total ownership at the position.

  • As usual, expect heavy running back spending to be a common theme. Even if Murray and/or Edmonds open things up a bit, bell-cows like Leonard Fournette ($7,800), Chris Carson ($7,000), and Saquon Barkley ($8,900) will be in high demand. If the ownership of recent running backs playing against the Bengals is any indication, Todd Gurley ($7,400) will have some fans as well. Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) probably won’t dip below ~15% ownership but should provide some leverage on the other top-tier backs due to his price tag and perceived poor matchup in San Francisco. The entirety of the running back field between $5K and $6.9K should get largely glossed over (save for potentially Murray and Edmonds). If you’re aiming for a contrarian build, there are few better places to start.

  • While some will prioritize Hopkins or Michael Thomas ($8,000), splurging at quarterback and running back means most entrants will be looking for at least two wide receiver bargains. Stills (5-4-105-0) played the Fuller role well last week and gets to face the Raiders flammable secondary. Corey Davis ($4,400) was revived by competent quarterback play last week and gets another winnable matchup against Tampa Bay. At the low end, DaeSean Hamilton ($3,300) has renewed PPR appeal following the early-week trade of Emmanuel Sanders. WR1 options in stock roster builds will top out in the $6K range, where Allen Robinson ($6,000) and John Brown ($5,900) stand out as the usual suspects.

  • Thrifty spending at wide receiver leaves room for our opponents to play the tight end chalk. Waller, Hooper, and Hunter Henry ($4,900), whose price couldn’t be rising more slowly, will be the most popular options. Paying way up to George Kittle ($6,500) in a nice spot as a heavy home favorite or down to anyone below Gerald Everett ($4,300) will force a unique build.

  • DraftKings did a nice job pricing up the most attractive DST matchups this week. The Patriots ($4,300), Rams ($3,800), and Saints ($3,200) will be popular but most entrants will have trouble coming up with enough funds to squeeze them in. Look for the most ownership to concentrate between $2,400 to $3,200, where Carolina ($2,400), Detroit, ($2,800), Indianapolis ($2,900), and Jacksonville ($2,900) are priced well in plus matchups.

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