DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 7

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

  • Ownership will concentrate on a handful of games this week, but none more so than Rams at Falcons and its slate-high 54-point over/under. Matt Ryan ($6,300) and Austin Hooper ($5,300) have barely budged in price despite their elite season-to-date production. Both are clear chalk. Julio Jones ($8,000), Calvin Ridley ($5,300), and Devonta Freeman ($5,400) will also draw moderate-to-high ownership on Atlanta’s side.

  • The Rams offense went bust-o in a tough matchup against San Francisco last week, but the crowd should forgive them in this spot. Cooper Kupp ($7,400) will be a popular correlation play in Ryan-Hooper stacks, while Robert Woods ($5,900) and Brandin Cooks ($5,400) are priced fairly enough to command attention as well. The only leverage play on Atlanta’s side is probably to fade their offense entirely (not advisable), while Gerald Everett ($3,700) is a less obvious way to invest in the Rams.

  • Three other potentially close games opened on the 50-point over/under borderline -- Cardinals at Giants (49), Colts at Texans (48), and Ravens at Seahawks (50.5). Game stacks should inflate the ownership of the key contributors on all of these teams, except for possibly New York where Daniel Jones ($6,100) and the returning Saquon Barkley ($8,900) are relatively expensive. Outside of bargain-priced T.Y. Hilton ($5,900), Indianapolis players shouldn’t attract much attention either.

  • It’s a safe assumption at least 50% of the crowd will choose a quarterback from one of the aforementioned games. Without Patrick Mahomes II on the slate (get well soon), Deshaun Waston ($7,000) is the QB1, but the salaries of the top plays at the position are clustered tightly together. Only $700 separates Watson from the QB7 (Ryan). Whether your opponents choose Watson, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, or Ryan, they will be spending a fair amount at quarterback. Punting the position with a sub-$6K option is one easy path to creating a unique build this week.

  • Spending in common roster builds should be heavy at RB1 and RB2. Leonard Fournette ($7,000) profiles as super-chalky in a dream spot vs. Cincinnati’s swiss cheese run defense, Dalvin Cook ($8,000) gets a soft matchup against the Lions, David Johnson ($7,800) has scored less than 18 DraftKings points in a game just once all year, and Chris Carson ($6,500) has officially graduated to bell-cow status after handling 80% of Seattle’s backfield touches over the last four weeks. Fewer will spend all the way up to Barkley in his return from a two-game absence, but even priced a full 10% above the RB2 (Cook), he still gives the field another expensive running back to consider.

  • Spending at quarterback and running back should suppress ownership of the premium wide receivers a bit, especially since Jones and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) haven’t performed up to expectations recently and Michael Thomas ($7,900) has a tough draw on the road against the Bears’ secondary. Kupp looks like the highest crowd-exposure among the wide receivers over $7K. Most of the ownership at the position should settle in the $5K-$6K range, where Hilton, Kenny Golladay ($5,800), Tyler Boyd ($5,600), Allen Robinson ($5,500), John Brown ($5,500), Cooks, and Ridley are all priced to move. Lineups built around a core of two wide receivers who cost $7K or more will stand out this week.

  • Assuming stock builds include a mid-priced wide receiver or a value running back like Josh Jacobs ($5,000) or Kerryon Johnson ($5,100) in the flex spot, there is enough room left over for Austin Hooper ($5,300) or Mark Andrews ($4,900) at tight end. Many will also be tempted to chase Hunter Henry’s ($4,000) 33-point game from last Sunday Night, leaving more room to spend at running back, wide receiver, or defense.

  • The Bills ($4,300) are the reason to splurge at DST. They’re 17-point home favorites against the hapless Dolphins and had an extra week to prepare for the game. At the other extreme, DraftKings has once again lowered the salary floor at defense, which led to the Jets appearing on 18% of rosters in last week’s Milly Maker. This week’s punt candidates are the Colts ($2,000), Redskins ($1,700), and Dolphins ($1,500), with Indianapolis the likely front runner.

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