KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:
- Kansas City at Detroit (54) and Tampa Bay at the LA Rams (50) are the only two games on the main slate with implied totals of at least 50 points. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,500) will be popular (as usual) and should boost the ownership of the Lions’ best offensive weapons -- Kenny Golladay ($5,900) and Kerryon Johnson ($5,400) -- by association. You won’t exactly be sneaking Rams players past your opponents, but Jared Goff ($6,300), Robert Woods ($6,100), Cooper Kupp ($6,500), and Brandin Cooks ($6,200) aren’t the flashiest players in the respective price ranges. Stacking LA’s passing game is shaping up as a sound tournament strategy
- With three weeks in the books and 2019 data beginning to stabilize, ownership will begin concentrating on offenses matched up against perceived poor defenses. Players from the Chargers (at Dolphins), Seahawks (at Cardinals), and Giants (vs. Washington) will be in high demand as a result.
- Quarterback roster rates could be as flat as they’ve been all year, with standout options at the top, middle, and lower price tiers. About 10% of entrants will pay up for Mahomes in any given week, Russell Wilson ($6,100) pops as the obvious mid-priced play, and Daniel Jones ($5,300) is too cheap relative to the 40-point upside he showed in last week’s debut. No individual quarterback’s ownership rate will be prohibitive in GPPs, but be prepared for several iterations of a common roster construction based on how heavily your opponents choose to spend at the position.
- Saquon Barkley is out for a while, Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott are off the main slate, and Dalvin Cook ($8,300) is in a tricky spot at Chicago, leaving Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) and Austin Ekeler ($8,000) to hog ownership at the top of the running back charts. Typical lineups should include one of McCaffrey or Ekeler, along with a sub-$6K RB2, to leave room for at least one pricy wide receiver. Kerryon Johnson and Chris Carson ($5,700) are the usual suspects. Barkley’s fill-in -- Wayne Gallman ($4,600) -- also profiles as a common RB2/flex in stock roster builds.
- Without many appealing top-shelf running backs, wide receiver spending should increase from last week. Keenan Allen ($7,600) is on a heater and primed to wreck the Dolphins’ beleaguered secondary, Julio Jones ($7,800) has reached 30 DraftKings points in consecutive games, and Mike Evans’ ($7,100) monster Week 3 performance will cause some entrants to point chase, especially if Chris Godwin is out or limited. Kenny Golladay ($5,900) and Tyler Lockett ($6,300) are likely WR2 options in the upper-middle tiers. Heavy spending at RB1 and WR1 will contribute to Washington’s Terry McLaurin ($4,600) getting piled on as a WR3 after his third-straight game with at least five catches and one touchdown.
- About two-thirds of the field’s collective tight end ownership will settle on Travis Kelce ($7,200), Evan Engram ($5,700), Darren Waller ($5,200), and Mark Andrews ($5,000). Punting tight end with a (non-Will Dissly) sub-$4K option is a simple way to force unique builds this week.
- It’s difficult to fit the Chargers ($3,800) under the cap, but 15% of the field played Dallas at $4,300 vs. Miami last week, so it’s a safe bet the crowd will find a way. Most lineups won’t be able to spare more than $3K or so at DST, which will raise the ownership of teams like Denver ($2,900 vs. Jacksonville) and Seattle ($3,300 @ Arizona).