If you are drafting this weekend, you don’t have the luxury of waiting to see what happens with holdouts, injuries, position battles, or potential breakout candidates. You have to make a call on when to select those players based upon the imperfect information we have as of today. The goal of this article is to update you on the absolute latest information you need to know and help figure out where these players should be drafted as of this weekend.
We will go position-by-position to look at some of the toughest decisions you will have to face in drafts this weekend, including:
-When to draft Andrew Luck
-What to make of the early preseason returns on new offenses in Arizona, Baltimore, New York, and elsewhere
-How to attack the Kansas City, Seattle, and Miami backfields
-When the reward outweighs the risk on holdouts Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon (and their backups)
-The mid-round and late-round wide receivers who you should move up your board
-The latest intel on the breakout candidates at tight end
This article is geared specifically to 12-team best ball leagues on DRAFT and uses DRAFT ADP from the last 48 hours. However, the information and most of the draft strategy discussed should be just as pertinent to any season-long draft taking place this weekend.
Quarterback
When to Draft Andrew Luck
We will have an answer on whether Andrew Luck (ADP: 89) will open the season as the Week 1 starter for the Colts by August 25th according to head coach Frank Reich. "Ideally, the more time you have the better. But by the end of the third preseason game (August 24th), I think we just have to know something," Reich said. "We have to be able to make the call and move from there, whether we’re full speed with Andrew or not after that third preseason game. Or at that point, are we going to go with Jacoby (Brissett). So we’ll make that decision when that time comes."
Anyone drafting between now and August 25th is going to have a tough call to make with limited information because so much is currently unknown regarding what exact injury Luck is dealing with and when he might return. His ADP has fallen 20 spots in recent weeks, so the injury news is being priced in already and the only question is whether it is fully priced in yet or if Luck should be falling deeper into drafts.
Our own Jene Bramel broke down what is known and what is still unknown on Wednesday.
Andrew Luck: More Questions than Answers
— Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel) August 14, 2019
Colts still aren't confident in diagnosis, Luck wasn't comfortable at last practice two weeks ago, descriptions of condition and plan remain confusing.
Tough to project a healthy Luck for Week 1.
More here ~https://t.co/qgoXYQcmq4
Dr. Bramel's bottom line:
Consider Luck questionable -- at best -- for Week 1. While I don't believe we're seeing a reprise of 2017, when Luck went quiet and eventually missed an entire year while rehabbing a shoulder injury, it will be difficult to confidently project a timetable for his return until we see him return to practice or hear him clarify his own status.
This is a situation where it makes sense to try to calculate risk versus reward through the lens of projected points per game instead of just looking at the fact that Luck’s ADP was QB3 prior to the injury. Our David Dodds projects Luck for 19.3 PPG (DRAFT scoring). He has Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger each projected to score between 17.8 and 18.7 PPG. If you draft Luck over one of these aforementioned quarterbacks and Luck ends up being fine, you project to come out 0.6 to 1.5 PPG ahead in the bargain. Approximately 1.0 PPG is something, but it also isn’t much of a potential reward considering what feels like an ever-growing level of risk that Luck misses regular-season games. The lingering injury also negatively impacts Luck’s fantasy ceiling due to the potential he will be less mobile and the fact he has barely practiced over the past three months.
If drafting this weekend, there are 12 other quarterbacks whose fantasy potential excites me enough to pass on Luck’s considerable upside. The time to stop Luck’s fall (if he slides) should be different for every drafter. Slot him in on your draft board behind the last quarterback you feel has elite upside and ahead of the next tier.
Young quarterbacks in new offenses
We have to take any information gleaned from preseason action with a major grain of salt. However, when we are trying to figure out which young quarterbacks are most likely to take a leap forward, every data point helps. This is especially true when trying to figure out what these players will look like in new offensive systems. Let’s look at the early returns:
Sam Darnold (ADP: 161) has seen his ADP start to creep up, which is understandable. He looks like the highest-upside option outside of the first 12 rounds based on the strength of back-to-back impressive preseason performances. He is worth targeting a round early. The early returns on Darnold could also potentially impact overall draft strategy. There is less of a desire to lock in a QB2 in the 10th or 11th-round range with Darnold lurking as an attractive option a few rounds later.
Lamar Jackson (ADP: 115) has also seen his ADP rise nearly a full round over the last couple weeks. Expect that rise to continue on the heels of another strong preseason performance. The highlight-reel touchdown run may have the biggest impact but we shouldn’t move him based upon that play. We already knew he was a special athlete. The real news has been that, to these untrained eyes, the ball looks to be coming out of his hand cleaner and with a bit more zip. The arrow is pointed up here and Jackson looks like a go-to DRAFT target in the 10th round. It is even worth considering him in the 9th-round because his rise in ADP should continue.
Kyler Murray's (ADP: 89) ADP saw a very slight bump after a relatively impressive preseason debut. Expect it to drop a half dozen spots off of a brutal showing by the Cardinals' starting offense in front of a national audience on Thursday Night Football. There is no reason to panic considering it is preseason and the Cardinals are running a vanilla offense. However, determining how much of a problem pass protection will be for this offense is a key variable for Murray’s projection and the early returns are not promising on that front. At the least, there should be less of a desire to reach for Murray ahead of ADP given our newest data point.
Running Back
The Chiefs Backfield
For those drafting right now, any breadcrumbs dropped by the Chiefs coaching staff as to the likely breakdown of snaps are worth analyzing and strongly considering before doing your draft.
Why is this backfield situation so important to try to get a grasp on?
Without getting into too much detail here, I do a projected weekly value add for each player on DRAFT and I also went back and calculated how many PPG each player would have added to a good best ball roster (DRAFT 0.5 PPR scoring) last season. These numbers provide important context for this discussion.
Kareem Hunt added 11.2 PPG worth of value in his 11 games. In six starts (playoffs included), Damien Williams added 12.0 PPG worth of value. Both of these numbers were right in line with the elite backs who are being drafted at the very top of the draft. Last season Saquon Barkley’s valued-added PPG was 12.2, Alvin Kamara’s was 12.0, Christian McCaffrey was 11.8, and Ezekiel Elliott’s was 10.4. More specific to Williams and his current draft position, Mike Evans and T.Y. Hilton both had weekly value-added PPG of just 5.6 last season despite highly productive seasons.
In short, Damien Williams (ADP:23) is being drafted in the part of the draft where you can reasonably expect one player to add 5-to-6 points to your weekly best ball score. He and Kareem Hunt both doubled that number last season, so we cannot act as if there is no upside here. The question then becomes how likely Williams is to approach that elite upside.
Matt Waldman went very in-depth on that topic in his recent Gut Check article:
The Gut Check No.480: Parsing the Chiefs Backfield https://t.co/lMHzHKkj6d by @MattWaldman pic.twitter.com/8O0ZX5BriA
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) August 16, 2019
You should have an opinion on how you think this backfield is most likely to play out before drafting this weekend. The latest news seems to justify the ADP of Damien Williams based upon his high-risk but potentially high-reward profile.
So according to Chiefs RB coach Deland McCullough, the Damien Williams start-o-meter is back toward “full-time.” pic.twitter.com/CEIarc1Zjo
— Dave Richard (@daverichard) August 13, 2019
Williams makes for a nice target at the top of the 3rd round if you aren’t scared to take on the risk.
However, the real value in this backfield if you are drafting this weekend is Darwin Thompson (ADP: 163). His ADP has shot up nearly 40 picks over the last week but he still looks like a relative bargain given the upside inherent in this Chiefs offense. Plus, while Carlos Hyde generated some relatively positive headlines early in camp, there continue to be drumbeats that he may not even make the roster.
Nate Taylor, Chiefs writer for The Athletic did not have Carlos Hyde on his projected 53-man roster on Thursday, saying the following:
Analysis: The only certainty with this group is that Damien Williams is the starter. Carlos Hyde is not on the roster since he still needs to prove that he’s capable of making the Chiefs’ offense better. Hyde’s two rushing attempts for two yards, albeit with one touchdown, against the Bengals didn’t reveal much. Hyde can find his way back on the roster with a good performance against the Steelers. And the group welcomes Smith, the kickoff returner who will get more attention from Reid in the regular season after switching from cornerback early in camp.
Running back coach Deland McCullough also didn’t have much to say about an on-field role this week when asked what Carlos Hyde brings to the team:
What does Carlos Hyde bring to the #Chiefs? We asked the RB coach Deland McCullough. His answer was telling.
— 610 Sports Radio (@610SportsKC) August 13, 2019
We discussed what that answer could mean for Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson & Hyde's chances of making the roster today on #TheDrive.
PODCAST: https://t.co/sDtWoUkrsG pic.twitter.com/D9x6useaVf
A speculative bet that Hyde will be cut could be a very profitable draft strategy. Darwin Thompson would vault to an unquestioned top backup behind Damien Williams, which would give him weekly value with flex-level production. It would also put him right on the precipice of earning a huge role in the league's best offense should Williams get hurt or struggle. It is worth reaching for that type of upside in the 12th or 13th round.
The Dolphins Backfield
The Miami backfield featuring Kenyan Drake (ADP: 77) and Kalen Ballage (ADP: 98) was already one of the toughest to figure out and the recent foot injury to Drake only makes things more difficult. Both backs have reportedly impressed.
2) Another pleasant surprise had been the team's front-line RBs. Both Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage have been great, flashing their speed and versatility. They've pushed each other. They've gotten along with one another. The problem? Drake got hurt Tuesday, will be out a while.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) August 15, 2019
Early camp reports suggested this could be a nearly 50-50 backfield split with Kalen Ballage handling the early-down work and Drake playing more of a change-of-pace and third-down role. The first preseason game, both Drake and Ballage each played one full series with the first-team offense without any subbing based upon down and distance. It is unclear when exactly Drake will be back from his foot injury. “We take things day-to-day here,” Dolphins coach Brian Flores said when asked if Drake will be ready for Week 1. “The opener is down the road. He’s got a little injury. He’s just going to take it day-to-day. He’s got a great attitude about it. I think he’ll be OK.”
The added uncertainty hurts Drake’s stock slightly. It also gives yet another boost to Ballage’s stock. He now has a chance to open the season as a workhorse back until Drake returns and the additional practice reps he receives while Drake is out won’t hurt his chances either. Ballage’s ADP continues to skyrocket and he is now typically being drafted in the 8th or 9th-round. There is some upside here for both backs but it is fair to question whether this Miami offense is going to be good enough for either to really matter and whether it makes sense for two backs on this team to both have top-100 ADPs. Tampa Bay and Buffalo are likely to be better offenses and neither has a running back with a top-100 ADP. Peyton Barber (ADP: 118) and Devin Singletary (ADP: 135) may provide more bang for your buck.
Holdout Updates and Strategy
There has been no movement on Melvin Gordon (ADP: 32) and the Chargers are no closer to a new contract. It seems possible, maybe even likely, that this stalemate drags on into the regular season and Gordon's ADP properly reflects this reality. His draft stock has fallen almost far enough to where he may be a bargain. He should be back sometime this season and could be a huge contributor in those all-important playoff weeks in the DRAFT tournaments.
There was a short window where Austin Ekeler (ADP: 64) and Justin Jackson (ADP: 114) were bargains but it closed quickly. Both should have real value early in the season but that is a lot of draft capital for players who should end up in a backup (Ekeler) and bench (Jackson) role whenever Gordon returns.
Similarly, the Dallas standoff with Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: 6) continues to drag on. There is more optimism this will be resolved before any regular-season action is missed but with each passing day, the odds of him missing time grow. Even if you factor in just a 10-20% chance Elliott misses some games, it probably should push him down to 7th overall behind the top four running backs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams.
The public has finally caught on to Tony Pollard (ADP: 146). His ADP has shot up 30 spots in the last week. He is still slightly undervalued. While Gordon’s holdout is likely to last longer and Ekeler is a more proven commodity than Pollard, there are too many similarities when it comes to their floors and ceilings for there to be a gap in ADP of over 80 spots.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon Reinstated
**Friday night article update**
Josh Gordon was conditionally reinstated by the NFL and is eligible to play Week 1. The Patriots wide receiver corps has been hit by a rash of injuries, so the return of Gordon is good news for Tom Brady, who gets a value boost of up to a full round. He should probably be going in the 12th-round instead of the 13th.
Figuring out where to draft Gordon is extremely difficult. He probably projects as a mid-tier WR2 if you make the following assumptions:
- He can stay clean and play a full season for the first time in his career.
- After being away from the Patriots for nine months, he can quickly get back up to speed.
- 42-year old Tom Brady is still prolific enough to support two top-24 wide receivers (Julian Edelman and Gordon)
Gordon’s WR20 projection includes enough questionable assumptions that it doesn’t make sense to draft him in that range. How much discount is enough to make it worth the risk? This is one of those situations that is impossible to quantify so drafters will have to go with their guy. Expect him to be a popular pick in the 6th or 7th round this weekend. The risk seems too high for me to pull the trigger in that range but if you believe in the Patriots offense and Gordon’s chances of staying clean, he isn’t a reach once you get into the 7th-round.
Jets moving up
The Jets starting offense has marched down the field for opening-drive touchdowns in each of the first two preseason games. All signs point in the direction of Sam Darnold making a leap in his second season. If you believe that to be the case, there is some value to be had because it is crystal clear who the top wide receivers are.
Sam Darnold has played 24 snaps through #Jets first two preseason games. Anderson and Enunwa have played every snap. Crowder has played 22 snaps and aligned as the slot WR on 13 of those plays (59%).
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 16, 2019
Robby Anderson (ADP: 65) is holding steady as a strong 6th-round target. Jamison Crowder (ADP: 145) is going a couple of rounds earlier than he was but still looks undervalued. He could lead the team in catches from the slot. Quincy Enunwa (ADP:205) is the perfect late-round target given that he should be an almost every-down player. He will have a weekly floor, which is more than can be said about most 18th-rounders.
Buffalo Depth Chart
The early preseason usage confirms reports from training camp that it is John Brown (ADP: 135) and not Robert Foster (ADP: 211) who is going to be the top target and main downfield threat for the Bills. Foster has played zero snaps with the starting offense in the preseason. Even though Brown’s ADP has shot up, he still looks like a bargain who should be going a couple of rounds higher than he is now.
Maximum hype in Carolina?
Curtis Samuel (ADP: 74) has seen his ADP continue to creep up. At this point, you likely have to be aggressive and take him in the 6th round if you really want him because he isn’t sneaking up on anyone at this point. Our old friend Matt Harmon isn’t helping those hoping to target Samuel in the 7th-round with tweets like this:
Curtis Samuel is indeed "practically impossible to cover."
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 15, 2019
Last season he posted a 74.6% success rate vs. man coverage, which falls at the 94th percentile in #ReceptionPerception history. He also converted 73.7% of his contested catch attempts.
His 2018 route charts 👇 pic.twitter.com/rRsSwzLW50
A sixth-round pick is a steep price to pay for such an unproven player. However, the juice is probably worth the squeeze here in best-ball leagues. Samuel has elite speed and is exactly the type of talent who should break off some long touchdowns and post a few of the huge weekly scores needed to justify his selection in this range.
Tight End
Jordan Reed (ADP: 122) has been a big riser in recent weeks. Despite the rise, he still looks undervalued as a 10th or 11th rounder. Reed has reportedly been the best player on the field in camp for Washington and is as healthy as he has been in a long time. "I think he's back," NFL Network’s Charley Casserly said after observing a recent practice. "Jordan Reed is the most important player on offense because he's the one guy that the defense has to double cover."
Darren Waller (ADP: 175) is another big riser. His ADP has risen more than 20 spots over the past month. Given some of the reports out of Oakland’s camp, the rise looks more than justified. You can still get him in the 14th round most drafts but you may have to look at him a round earlier if you want to lock in his upside as your TE2.
1) I know I've said his name a bunch this offseason, and he didn't practice while I was there, but hard to overstate how high the Raiders are on TE Darren Waller, who they see as a freakish athlete for the position and good fit for the role vacated by the departed Jared Cook.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) August 9, 2019