Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Which overtly strong and weak matchups are you using to influence your DFS lineups and exposure in Week 12?
Strong Matchups
- Falcons
- Raiders
- Colts
- Buccaneers
- Jets
Weak Matchups
- Cowboys
- Bills
- Patriots
- Panthers
JASON WOOD
Falcons
Julio Jones is one of the safest high-priced options this week given the matchup, and the Falcons' inability to run the ball now that they're down to Brian Hill in the backfield. Calvin Ridley is also enticing given his price, and the fact his target share is secure with Austin Hooper injured. Matt Ryan, by proxy, is a top-3 option this week.
Raiders
Darren Waller will be a chalky option every week, and it's justified. Tyrell Williams remains a better GPP option than cash option; he's just too inconsistent. Hunter Renfrow is another low-priced GPP option that frees up salary for investments elsewhere. I'm much higher on Derek Carr this week than consensus and see him as a top-5 option in both cash and GPP builds. Josh Jacobs is also a cash-game option but is probably better faded in GPPs if his ownership is high.
PHIL ALEXANDER
Strong Matchups
- Falcons - Julio Jones always seems to save his best for the Buccaneers. Matt Ryan-Jones-Calvin Ridley stacks are as good a way to start a lineup this week as any.
- Raiders - The best way to beat the Jets secondary is with deep speed. Tyrell Williams has it.
- Buccaneers - The return of cornerback Desmond Trufant for Atlanta makes the matchup slightly more difficult for Mike Evans on the perimeter but this is a bounce-back spot for both Evans and Chris Godwin, assuming Jameis Winston's knee checks out.
- Jets - Robby Anderson is going to go off one of these weeks, but I'm done trying to catch that wave. It's evident Sam Darnold prefers Jamison Crowder, who has reached a ~3x multiple of his current salary in each of his last three games (DraftKings).
- Cowboys - It's tough to get excited about a hobbled Amari Cooper facing shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore. If Gilmore locks down Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb could see some overflow targets but they face difficult matchups of their own. All three have tournament upside but none are high-exposure plays.
Justin Bonnema
Strong Matchups
Falcons – this is the most obvious and chalky spot of the week. It’s also priced up accordingly, making power stacks of Ryan, Jones, and Ridley with a Bucs receiver on the other side difficult.
Justin Howe
- Falcons – They’re the clear chalk, and Calvin Ridley is a cash staple. Weird to say for such an uneven producer, but the value is there.
- Raiders – Tyrell Williams faces a cherry matchup with the Jets’ reserve-level outside cornerbacks. Their slot man, Brian Poole, is fantastic, but Williams won’t see his coverage.
- Buccaneers – The Atlanta secondary has taken massive steps forward over the past two weeks. Between that, Jameis Winston’s injury, and the general inconsistency around this unit, I’m taking a week off.
- Jets – It’s gonna happen for Robby Anderson. At some point, it is, if only for a brief flash. He and Sam Darnold occasionally sync up on the deep ball, and a 4-100-2 game will tilt GPPs. Why not push in some chips when he’s facing Daryl Worley?
- Cowboys – All of these guys face poor matchups, but I don’t agree with Vegas’ low projection for the Cowboys (19.75). Gallup won’t draw more than 2-5% ownership, and there’s a better chance than that that (1) the Cowboys score 31 points in a semi-shootout, and (2) Cooper is locked down and erased by Stephon Gilmore.
