Photo: Rich Barnes, USA Today Sports
Which player-backfield-storyline is moving the needle on your Week 12 lineups?
- Christian McCaffrey lapping the field in salary, is he a fade due to cost or is the low-hanging fruit a cash-game must?
- Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt split with Chubb's receiving work decreases, but does it matter against Miami this week?
- Saquon Barkley coming off his season-worst game at Chicago. Any risk of him being rested in-game even if not missing full games down the stretch?
- Is LeVeon Bell a strong play with the Jets drawing the Raiders and Bell not a high-level salary?
- David Montgomery with quarterback questions and two down games in a row, promising Giants matchup in Week 12.
- Buying Bo Scarbrough at all against Washington after seeing starter touches for the Lions last week?
- Derrius Guice flashed in minimal playing time with his Week 11 debut. How does this backfield shake out down the stretch?
Jason Wood
- Saquon Barkley coming off his season-worst game at Chicago. Any risk of him being rested in-game even if not missing full games down the stretch?
Barkley isn't healthy, and the Giants don't have much left to play for, other than their coach's job and perhaps momentum heading into the offseason in terms of establishing where the truest needs are and where the roster is okay. As a Barkley owner in quite a few redraft leagues, I'm skeptical he'll be an asset in starting lineups down the stretch. And he's too important to risk damaging his 2020 value for some extra statistical milestones this year.
- Is LeVeon Bell a strong play with the Jets drawing the Raiders and Bell not a high-level salary?
I have difficulty buying into Bell as a must-start DFS asset. He's been largely ineffective all season, on a per-touch basis, and the Jets aren't going to have a positive game script very often. The Raiders are quietly a good team, with momentum, and an ability to control the game with Josh Jacobs. Bell is no longer matchup-proof because he's not getting the snap share or passing targets that always cushioned his floor in Pittsburgh.
- Buying Bo Scarbrough at all against Washington after seeing starter touches for the Lions last week?
Why not? The Lions have been searching for an offensive identity all year, and since Kerryon Johnson went on Injured Reserve, it's been a revolving door of failed experiments. Until last week, when Scarbrough got the start and ran hard in spite of being signed just a few days prior. With a week of practices under his belt and an incremental understanding of the playbook, Scarbrough projects as an enticing lottery ticket against a suspect Washington defense.
Phil Alexander
- Christian McCaffrey - Cash game roster construction should start with McCaffrey every week. He's expensive but you're essentially locking in 30 PPR points with the upside for 50.
- Both Hunt and Chubb are viable this week, but I'm more interested in paying up for Chubb. Despite Hunt capping his upside a bit, Chubb has still played 77% of the Browns' offensive snaps over the last two weeks and touched the ball 24.5 times per game. Assuming a similar workload, he should shred Miami's rush defense.
- Barkley profiles as a solid tournament play. He had a week to rest his balky ankle and faces a Bears defense that ranks bottom-10 in normalized fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last five weeks. With Pat Shurmur likely coaching for his job, the only way Barkley gets pulled is if the outcome of the game has already been decided.
- Bell looks like a fine play from a point-per-dollar standpoint but last week's 55% snap-share is a concern. His high floor/low ceiling production in his first year with the Jets makes him a better play in cash games.
- Scarbrough is an early-down grinder who can at least pick up what the Lions' solid offensive line blocks for him. With the Lions favored by more than a field goal at Washington, he should theoretically meet or exceed last week's 14 carries. He'll need to fall into the end zone to hit GPP value, but that isn't an altogether unlikely scenario. There are worse punts out there this week than Scarbrough.
Justin Bonnema
- Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt split with Chubb's receiving work decreases, but does it matter against Miami this week?
Chubb losing his role as a receiving back certainly dings his ceiling, but his volume and (to a lesser extent) his snaps counts have remained intact. In two games with Hunt, Chubb has handled 49 touches, including 27 carries last week. Both running backs have been used on the field together with Chubb logging at least 72% snaps (Hunt logged 55%last week). Unfortunately, we’re not getting a discount on his salary to reflect his downturn in targets. But that should also keep his ownership levels down and with the Dolphins on tap, he remains a viable GPP option.
- Is LeVeon Bell a strong play with the Jets drawing the Raiders and Bell not a high-level salary?
If you roster Bell, you’re banking on his contribution as a receiver. The Raiders field a decent run defense and enter Week 12 as three-point road favorites. Bell’s salary is too costly (at least on DraftKings) considering his lack of production and underwhelming ceiling. At best, he’s a contrarian option in large-field tournaments assuming his ownership projections come in low.
- David Montgomery with quarterback questions and two down games in a row, promising Giants matchup in Week 12.
Montgomery is an interesting option. His usage and production leave more questions than answers, but that could also be enough to chase the crowd away despite the soft run defense he faces in Week 12. Unless you believe the Giants will travel to Chicago and pull off an upset as six-point underdogs, which certainly could happen considering how poorly the Bears have played, Montgomery sets up as an affordable option that doesn’t need a monster day to payoff.
- Buying Bo Scarbrough at all against Washington after seeing starter touches for the Lions last week?
His price and matchup fit. But he strikes me as the kind of running back that lacks agility and need big holes to create yards (25 of his 55 yards came on one play last week where the Cowboys’ defense was busted wide open giving him a straight line of no defenders). He also has no presence in the passing attack, where McKissic truly shined last week (and looked much, much better than Scarbrough). Logic says this backfield will continue to be split with a “smash and dash” approach, requiring touchdowns for either player to hit value. Washington, of course, is the kind of defense that makes touchdowns possible. Still, I prefer Driskel and the passing attack if targeting this game.
Justin Howe
As Phil says, cash-game builds have to start with Christian McCaffrey. No doubt about it: there’s no better floor/ceiling combination in fantasy. But I understand the strategic fade in tournaments. You have to have exposure, of course, but you’re also banking on some wildly high efficiency numbers to stay wild.
DFS keeps trying desperately to pull us back in on LeVeon Bell, virtually cratering his salaries for Week 12. I chase volume first and foremost, so I get the appeal – Bell is the Jets’ entire backfield. But that doesn’t mean now what it meant 2-3 years ago. Bell’s offense now lags behind in play volume and touchdown opportunity, so Jets LeVeon Bell is looking awfully close to Bills LeSean McCoy. Besides, at some point, a sheer lack of effectiveness has to be treated as such, and Bell doesn’t look capable of overcoming the Jets’ crappy offense and line.
I’m mostly out on the Lions backfield. I was excited when Ty Johnson was set to take over; he looked poised to step into Kerryon Johnson’s three-down role and provide a few weeks of 15-20 touches at a low cost. But now, even at or near minimum salaries, I don’t see any realistic ceiling that belongs on a roster of mine. None of the factors are projectably there – high volume, lots of targets, good goal-line prognosis, etc. – that suggest they’re GPP candidates.
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