How much does 'betting on regression' play into your DFS calls for a given week especially midseason and beyond? If a core contributor for an offense has not found the end zone or received much goal-line work, etc. does that fuel a target recommendation or play?
Does the opposite work as well when a notable 'hot player' is seeing ridiculous volume or a sky-high touchdown rate? Does it need to correspond with a positive matchup? Do any players fit your regression criteria for Week 9 or the coming weeks in general?
It’s easy to say “he’s due” regarding a player that hasn’t scored a touchdown or hasn’t performed well in several games, but regression doesn’t necessarily work like that. A full NFL season is already a tiny sample size, betting on regression from just a few games seems shaky. That said, we can identify when the volume is failing to lead to positive results. If a good player is seeing a lot of targets each week and isn’t logging a lot of yards, chances are that eventually, those targets will lead to yards, which then lead to touchdowns.
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