DFS Roundtable: Regression Mindset

The DFS team discusses their mindset about regression for lineup building

How much does 'betting on regression' play into your DFS calls for a given week especially midseason and beyond? If a core contributor for an offense has not found the end zone or received much goal-line work, etc. does that fuel a target recommendation or play?

Does the opposite work as well when a notable 'hot player' is seeing ridiculous volume or a sky-high touchdown rate? Does it need to correspond with a positive matchup? Do any players fit your regression criteria for Week 9 or the coming weeks in general?

Justin Bonnema

It’s easy to say “he’s due” regarding a player that hasn’t scored a touchdown or hasn’t performed well in several games, but regression doesn’t necessarily work like that. A full NFL season is already a tiny sample size, betting on regression from just a few games seems shaky. That said, we can identify when the volume is failing to lead to positive results. If a good player is seeing a lot of targets each week and isn’t logging a lot of yards, chances are that eventually, those targets will lead to yards, which then lead to touchdowns.

For Week 9, the obvious regression candidate that everyone has been chasing for weeks is Leonard Fournette. On the season, he ranks fifth in DraftKings scoring, sixth in targets per game, second in red zone opportunities among all players, and has only one touchdown to show for it.

James Brimacombe

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