The Week 4 slate is littered with ho-hum Vegas totals and the start of bye weeks (49ers, Jets). What stands out in terms of early-season storylines to apply to Week 4 lineups and roster building?
Phil Alexander
Kansas City at Detroit and Tampa Bay at the Rams should be prioritized but there are four other games on the main slate with implied totals of at least 46 points. In GPPs, it will be necessary to take a hard stand on whether these (slightly better than) middling games will go over or under their respective totals and construct your rosters accordingly.
Of those four games, Seattle at Arizona and Carolina at Houston are the most appealing. Both the Seahawks and Cardinals have terrible defenses and dynamic offensive weapons at the skill positions. There is a chance Seattle gets out to an early lead and slows the game down, but negative game scripts haven't prevented Arizona from running the third-most plays per game this season.
Carolina at Houston should also be played up in pace and both teams have shown cracks on defense. DeAndre Hopkins has underwhelmed in his last two games yet remains priced as the WR2 (DraftKings), making him an intriguing tournament play this week.
Jason Wood
History tells us prior-year metrics are more predictable than current season metrics until we get through Week 4; then the current season starts being far more predictive. So even though it feels like we've got a complete picture of things, we really don't. But we will soon.
As a result, this is a week to strongly consider regression candidates -- both positively and negatively.
As Phil noted, it's always smart to focus on the games with higher projected point totals, at least as a starting point for your roster construction.
James Brimacombe
Now with three weeks, worth of data I think we can start looking at trends at the different positions with what team gives the most fantasy points to each position. For quarterback it looks like you want to take whoever is playing against the fast-paced Cardinals as you will have more opportunities to gain fantasy points. Russell Wilson is that player this week. I think you can also target players against the Dolphins each week and this week all the Chargers will be getting a boost in possible production. Ekeler stands out at running back as the Dolphins have given up the most points to opposing running backs.
Will Grant
It's becoming obvious that there are certain teams where you want a piece of the offenses that are playing against them. Miami is the team that immediately jumps to mind, given they have only managed 13 points compared with giving up 120+ points over the first three weeks of the season. Teams playing Miami will be on the field a lot and will score a lot of points. This week, the Chargers fall into that category and while San Diego is in the unfavorable 'West Coast traveling East' position, you definitely want to have a piece of them of that offense in your lineups this week. Other offenses that are facing weak defenses that have given up a lot of points this week are Seattle at Arizona (88 point allowed this year) and Indianapolis at Oakland (78 points allowed this year).
One other interesting matchup this week is the New York Giants at Washington. Both teams have given up more than 90 points this season, and both are in 'must win' situations facing a division opponent who is also struggling. The key issue from DFS is who to take - with Daniel Jones looking like a great value option at quarterback and Wayne Gallman being severely underpriced with Saquan Barkley out. Both of these guys are potential possibilities to sneak into a lineup or two but have enough questions around their new roles to make you shy away from owning big shares of either. On the Washington side, you have guys like Terry McLarin, Trey Quinn and even Chris Thompson at bargain-basement prices, but could easily see a game script that has them reaching 3x-4x value this weekend.
Justin Howe
I think the simplest principle remains: buy the highly-projected games. In GPPs, stack them liberally and without overthinking. Don’t be afraid to cross-stack positions (QB-RB) and teams (QB1-WR1-WR2-TE1). Even when the big projections don’t hit - and they usually do - there’s generally enough to chalk to carry you near the cash line.
