DFS Roundtable: Embrace the Unknown

The DFS team discusses the unknown and higher variance passing games around the NFL landscape

The 49ers passing game, along with A.J. Green being out, and jumbled depth charts like Miami, Washington, and Arizona offer situations to exploit in Week 1. However, the variance is high with outcomes of usage and overall strength of these units. Are there any underrated plays for cash or GPP lineups among them?

Dan Hindery

Let’s start by taking Tyler Boyd out of this cohort of unknowns. He is one of the surest things on the slate. Pencil him in for 8-to-10 targets and feel great about his floor. Boyd averaged 16.4 PPG on DraftKings last year and looks like a rock-solid WR2 again in 2019. He isn’t at the top of my list for cash games but he is at least in the conversation. Nobody else from these offenses makes my list for cash game consideration.

Miami and Washington look like bad teams in bad spots. There is too much value on this Week 1 slate to for me to take a big risk in these spots where the upside looks pretty minimal.

Arizona is a different story. This offense possesses the type of uncertainty that we typically love to target in GPPs. There is certainly upside and a wide range of realistic outcomes for this wide receiver group. It isn’t hard to envision someone like Christian Kirk showing out in Week 1, for example. The problem is that this offense isn’t sneaking up on anyone and the top options are going to come with heavy ownership, especially since we project Kyler Murray to be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks on the slate. In short, it makes sense to target Arizona wide receivers but the ownership is going to be so high that it probably won’t be the sharpest way to try to gain an edge on the field.

This is a thin play but I do want to throw a quick plugin for Damion Willis as a long shot GPP option at the minimum salary. Willis is a freaky size-speed athlete who has made plays on a consistent basis throughout camp for the Bengals. He has already been named the starter at the X-receiver spot in place of A.J. Green and looks like the second option in the Bengals passing game behind only Tyler Boyd heading into the season. If Cincinnati falls behind and is forced to throw aggressively, Willis has a realistic path to a big fantasy day.

Phil Alexander

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