The chalk matchups for Week 10 include:
Colts (-10) vs. Dolphins
Ravens (-10) at Bengals
Saints (-13) vs. Falcons
How are you prioritizing or likely to vary your exposure to these running games in Week 10? Should the Packers (-5) vs. Panthers also be in consideration?
Jason Wood
The Colts defense and Marlon Mack are my top stack of the week. The game may be closer than the spread suggests, as Brian Hoyer likely gets the start, but the Colts defense and the offensive line should be enough to win the game particularly if they stay balanced. Mack should benefit from a terrific game script and opponent.
The Saints are a juicy option, too, but I need to see Alvin Kamara produce before investing in him for DFS purposes. And Latavius Murray is a fantastic option with Kamara out, but if he's back -- Murray is far too risky except in multi-lineup GPP builds.
Mark Ingram is underappreciated and in play versus the Bengals, but I like him much less than Mack because Ingram has to worry about Lamar Jackson running the ball, too.
Phil Alexander
I'm prioritizing the running games on the big favorites as follows:
- Saints - If Alvin Kamara is active, we should project him for about 65% of the backfield touches for the Saints. As 13-point home favorites, New Orleans should have plenty of running back touches to dish out and the quality of those touches has improved since the last time we saw Kamara on the field due to Drew Brees' return. Latavius Murray remains in the overall RB1 discussion if Kamara still needs another week to recover.
- Colts - Whether Brian Hoyer or a hobbled Jacoby Brissett gets the start at quarterback, Indianapolis should run their offense through Mack at home against Miami. He's explosive enough to return tournament value in any scoring system, even at an elevated price, but a lack of involvement in the passing game makes Mack a much better play on non-PPR sites.
- Ravens - Don't go into tournaments with zero Mark Ingram exposure, but also don't be surprised when the field likes him way better than you do. We saw this play out just a few weeks ago. Ingram was over 30% owned against the Bengals in the Week 6 Milly Maker and returned a 2.3x salary multiple. His snap-share isn't reliable enough to make him a great play, even in this matchup.
- Packers - Aaron Jones' involvement in the passing game dwindled in Davante Adams' return. As long as Jamaal Williams continues to carve out ~45% of the snaps, neither running back is more than a GPP dart, which is especially unfortunate for Jones given his price across the industry. He should find more space to operate against Carolina than he did last week, but the only path for Jones reaching value is a multi-touchdown game.
James Brimacombe
I actually don’t feel like the Ravens running backs will be chalk. I like Lamar Jackson as my one-off in that game as he continues to show that he can give you the safest floor out of all the top quarterbacks just based on his rushing ability alone. I do like the Colts rushing attack with Marlon Mack paired with their defense this week. The Colts are hurting right now in their passing game due to injuries so this could be a game where Mack sees 20-25 total touches with a couple going for touchdowns. As far as the Saints backfield goes we could see more of a committee with Kamara coming off of injury and Murray being one of the hottest ball carriers in recent weeks. I prefer to look at the Saints passing game in this one with Brees and Thomas looking to put up a big game against the Falcons.
Dan Hindery
I am probably going to be under the field on the running backs in each of these games. Marlon Mack is a solid option but I don’t love paying $7K on DraftKings for a back who has one target total over the last two weeks. He is very touchdown dependent. Mark Ingram is priced way up against the Bengals, also. I would be very interested in Kamara but for the fact that he is coming back from an ankle injury and Latavius Murray played so well in his stead. It is hard to predict exactly how they are going to split the workload between those two, so it is hard to pay huge money for Kamara with that much uncertainty.
