Cracking FanDuel: Week 16

A weekly overview on cash game strategy, bankroll strategy, and sample cash game lineups.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions

Update #1 8:28 AM EST.

Adam Schefter tweeted out about an hour ago that Derrick Henry is not expected to play.

With that said, I'm rolling out this lineup this week. One thing to call out a little bit is to expand on Tyler Eifert. This is more of a bet against the top end players that will be popular such as Darren Waller who is in a tough matchup against the Chargers and they shut down Waller the first time holding him to just 3 receptions for 40 yards. Zach Ertz is the one that worries me, but he is also $2,200 more than Eifert.

The way I look at it is this. There are three options for me this week, Carson/Eifert/Thomas, Freeman/Ertz/Thomas, Carson/Ertz/DeVante Parker. I think as of now, the safest trio is the first one with Carson/Eifert/Thomas. Ertz has tremendous upside, but his historical performances against Dallas have extremely binary. Since 2017, Ertz has played five games against Dallas. In those games, he has one huge game and four disappointing games. He is going to be highly owned, so there is a lot of risk here, but I think, you could get away with not playing him.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

  • Seattle (vs Arizona)- 30.25 points
  • Baltimore (vs Cleveland)– 29.5 points
  • Atlanta (vs Jacksonville) – 26.75 points
  • Indianapolis (vs Carolina) – 26.75 points
  • New Orleans (vs Tennessee) – 26.25 points

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK-

If you were following along with the lineup posted last week, you were in for a fun ride. After falling behind early due to Phillip Lindsay’s poor performance and Saquon Barkley being so highly owned, Chris Conley scored two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter to firmly place the lineup above the cash game line with 148.5 points.

This was a bit lucky as there were several mistakes made on this slate most notably not being on the Chiefs defense, Saquon Barkley had a big second half that made him a tremendous play, A.J. Brown at 41% continued to exceed value, and while Eli Manning reached value, Ryan Tannehill was excellent in the second-half making him one of the top quarterbacks last week and was 31% owned.

ROADBLOCk

General Tips- Week 15- The Rake

For the past couple of weeks, FanDuel has changed up its rake strategy for head-to-head contests at the $100 price point and higher. For a lot of people, this won’t matter, but if you are playing higher stakes, this could have a significant benefit to you by moving your volume over to Head to Head instead of playing 50/50’s.

Contest Size

Head to Head Payback %

50/50 Payback %

$1

90%

90%

$2

90%

90%

$5

90%

90%

$10

90%

90%

$25

90%

90%

$50

90%

90%

$104 H2H/$109 50/50

96.2%

91.7%

$260 H2H/$270 50/50

96.2%

92.5%

$515 H2H/$535 50/50

97.1%

93.5%

$1030 H2H/ 1,065 50/50

97.1%

93.8%


CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 16

Lamar Jackson or Christian McCaffrey?

This week, based on the smaller slate with three games on Thursday, a Sunday night game, and a Monday night game, it leaves fewer options for value on FanDuel. FanDuel has also done a better job pricing compared to some weeks when it seemed obvious plays were far too cheap.

With that said, based on the lack of value on this slate, it is going to be near impossible to find a cash game lineup that you like with both Jackson and McCaffrey included in them. So the question is whether you should play Jackson or McCaffrey this week. If you listen to the DFS Power Grid, you’ll know that I am a big fan of McCaffrey this week, however, that is a much bigger play on DraftKings this week than FanDuel. On FanDuel this week, I’m going in a different direction at the running back position (more on that later), simply because while I think that McCaffrey will see a large volume of receptions, there is a real chance that the Panthers offense is a disaster with Will Grier starting and they have a large number of short possessions.

Lamar Jackson this week is in another great spot, while Cleveland’s passing defense is one of the better units in the league and Marquise Brown will have his hands full with one of the few cornerbacks who can match his speed in Denzel Ward, where Jackson should excel is on the ground. Cleveland’s run defense for most of the year has been a disaster. While they held Jackson to 66 yards rushing in their first appearance, that was back in Week 4 when Jackson and the offense were still figuring things out and he was trying to be a passer. The Browns have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and have allowed four rushing touchdowns on the year to quarterbacks which is the fifth-most in the NFL this season.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Not a lot of injuries this week. Very limited value.

  • Josh Jacobs will miss this week with a shoulder injury which makes DeAndre Washington the top value running back on the slate and he should be near 100% owned.
  • Jordan Howard remains doubtful, which will make Miles Sanders once again in play. Sanders’ price has increased to $7,400, and while he is seeing consistent volume with 19 touches or more in his last three games, the Giants run defense has been solid since Week 8 only allowing one running back to top 60 yards in that timeframe.
  • D.J. Chark Jr is a game-time decision which if he plays he is a nice GPP play at $6,300. If he does not play, Chris Conley once again is in play at just $5,800 after seeing eight targets last week.
  • Kerryon Johnson might return from injured reserve this week after suffering a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 8. It is hard to see a scenario where they bring Johnson back and he sees the full workload as the Lions have nothing to play for and no reason to push him.
  • The Titans have downgraded Derrick Henry to questionable after the Texans beat the Buccaneers to secure the AFC South. While the Titans still have a chance at a playoff spot, it is curious timing that they would downgrade him. If he is unable to go, Dion Lewis at $4,800 would be the value that we are all seeking. The Titans game this week means virtually nothing, as in order for them to make the playoffs, they need the Steelers to lose a game and they need to win their game against the Texans next week in order to have the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. The only way that it matters is if Pittsburgh would lose both games, then Tennessee theoretically could clinch by winning this game and losing next week, but the easier path is to rest Henry and win next week.

KEY CASH CORE

Chris Carson- $7,400

Chris Carson is in another fantastic matchup this week going up against a Cardinals team that has struggled mightily when facing good competition at the running back position. On the year, the Cardinals have allowed seven running backs to rush for 90 yards or more and are coming off of a game in which Nick Chubb had 148 total yards. Where the Cardinals struggle is up the middle as Joe Walker is one of the worst middle linebackers against the run and Jordan Hicks is having a down season. This should be an opportunity for Carson to once again have another fantastic game as we saw last week where he had 133 yards and a touchdown. His price has come up, but at $8,200 it is still a fair price for a running back who should have 20+ touches. Expect ownership to once again be high for Carson who was 95% owned in 50/50’s last week.

Julio Jones- $8,000

This one is a tough one simply because I would much rather play Michael Thomas, but Julio Jones is going to be the highest owned player in FanDuel cash this week. With Calvin Ridley out last week, Jones saw 20 targets of which he caught 13 passes for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. At a discount of $1,000 compared to Thomas, Jones should once again see 15 targets in a game against the Jaguars who have all but given up defensively. While Julio’s floor is not as high as Thomas, his ceiling is just as high if not higher and we wrote in a tip earlier this season that sometimes you just need to accept that a player is going to be so highly owned that you try to differentiate elsewhere.

DeAndre Washington-$5,600

This week, the core is likely going to be similar for most people assuming Derrick Henry does play and doesn’t open up the value of Dion Lewis. With Josh Jacobs out, DeAndre Washington’s price is simply too good not to play him at $5,600. With no Jacobs two weeks ago, Washington saw 20 touches. The matchup is far from a great one, but it is not terrible as the Chargers have allowed a running back to top 50 yards in four of their last five games. With the lack of value across the board this week, all we are looking for is 50 yards rushing with 4-5 receptions for another 20 yards and a touchdown and he easily reaches value.

Tyler Eifert- $4,700

Remember Tyler Eifert? The oft-injured tight end who always had talent, but could never stay healthy. Don’t look now, but he has back-to-back games of 40 yards or more since Auden Tate has gone out with injury. This is a Bengals team that outside of Tyler Boyd does not have a consistent secondary receiving option and is facing a Dolphins defense that while they are in the middle of the pack against the tight end position, their schedule against tight ends has been very poor. They have faced three tight ends in the top 15 in the NFL this season and have allowed 108 yards and a touchdown to Mark Andrews, 54 yards to Jason Witten, and a combined 90 yards to the Eagles duo of tight ends. Eifert is not great, but at $4,700 in a game that the Bengals should be competitive in, and with no great tight end options this week is a value play that allows you to do a lot of things with your lineups.

Key Fade:

Alvin Kamara- $7,200

Alvin Kamara is likely going to get some love this week simply because at $7,200 in a game that should be high scoring, he will see a high number of touches and has big name recognition. Here's the problem, in a half-point PPR setup, we are relying on touchdowns and opportunities to score a touchdown. Kamara inside the five-yard line has just four carries on the season, and just 11 carries inside the ten-yard line with Latavius Murray having 12 carries inside the ten. This is a problem for several reasons, first and foremost something seems off with Kamara as he doesn't have the full burst that we have seen the past few seasons particularly as a receiver as he is averaging just 6.6 yards-per-reception compared to 9.5 yards-per-reception in his first two seasons. The matchup is a good one against Tennessee who have ninth-most FanDuel points to opposing running backs and have struggled against receiving backs as Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey all had big games against them, but this is a scenario in which he's a fine GPP play, but too risky to play in cash.

LINEUPS

ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.7)

ROSTER 2 ($60K) – LINEUP 2 If Henry is Out (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.6)

ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ NO/TEN GAME STACK (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 123.0)

Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.

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