Cracking FanDuel: Week 3

A weekly overview on cash game strategy, bankroll strategy, and sample cash game lineups.

Sunday Morning Cash Lineup Update:


Nelson Agholor
With Alshon Jeffery looking like he is out, Nelson Agholor jumps into our cash game core plays at $4,800. He was already in the lineup as a salary relief player. This was a play that looked like it might happen early in the week, and then it looked like Jeffery would play later in the week.

Mark Andrews

It appears that the Mark Andrews injury is much worse than anyone had anticipated earlier this week when he was labeled as questionable we all sort of ignored it. Adam Schefter tweeted that there is a 50/50 chance he plays this game. At this point, it's safer to move off of Andrews and move on to Zach Ertz for just $100 more. Some people may ask, but I'm not worried about starting two Eagles in this game, the targets should funnel through both of them, and they are cheap enough to pay off.

Updated lineup as of 10:25AM EST



SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

    • Dallas (vs Mia) – 34.25 points
    • New England (vs NYJ) – 32.5 points
    • Kansas City (vs Bal) – 31.0 points
    • Tampa Bay (vs NYG) – 27.25 points
    • Green Bay (vs Den) – 25.75 points

BANKROLL STRATEGY- BRAIN OVER HEART

One of the things that we have all done throughout the history of DFS is that a lot of DFS players want to be right so they can look smart with their friends or Twitter, or whomever they interact with. By doing this, oftentimes they take bold calls and fall in love with those proclamations so much that they end up taking these bold calls and building them into their cash game. This could be dismissing a player because of the defense that they are facing that week, it could be falling in love with a mediocre role player because of a matchup. Point being, try as much as you can to eliminate any narratives that you are creating in your head.

One example this week is Chris Carson. There is a lot of love going to Chris Carson this week as a lot of people think that he’s still going to be the 19-22 carry player that we saw in 2018. The reality is that in cash games he’s incredibly risky, as he’s likely one fumble away from being benched. Chris Carson’s snap counts last week went from 77% in Week 1 down to just 54% in Week 2. He’s still a great GPP play, as the chance is that he could bounce back, but in cash, Rashaad Penny has looked great and may continue to see significant time.

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 3

Week 3 is an interesting week as we start to balance what we have seen on the field and what we had thought we knew in the preseason. The reality is that we need to start transitioning to eliminating some of those pre-season thoughts and start moving on to what we see on the field. With that said, we need to put things in context for what we are seeing. For example, any defense that has faced the Chiefs offense is going to have significantly worse overall stats than a team that has faced the Dolphins.

SOME OF THE SITUATIONS TO BE THINKING ABOUT ARE BELOW

  • The real question we all have to ask ourselves this week is who is Lamar Jackson? Is he an MVP candidate or is he the beneficiary of having played two of the worst defenses in the NFL this season in Miami and Arizona. Kansas City so far this season with a reinvigorated pass rush has looked better against the pass than they have in recent seasons, but with his price being as high as it is, do we fully trust him this week?
  • What can Brown do for you? There is a perception that John Brown and Marquise Brown are the traditional Mike Wallace/DeSean Jackson speedsters, but so far this season they have been much more than that. Marquise Brown had 13 targets last week, and John Brown is averaging 9 targets per game. This is a situation in which both players are still too cheap if you can get over the narrative that they’re highly volatile speed players. We will find out if that narrative is true, but for now, it’s looking more as if they’re players who will continue to see production.
  • Packers rushing offense. This is a huge question heading into this week as Aaron Jones is coming off of one of his best games as a professional rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown against a good Vikings defense. Mysteriously, Matt LaFleur came out this week and said that he wants to balance the touches between Jones and Jamaal Williams. This on the surface could just be coach speak and it makes zero sense why they would do this. However, if they do limit his carries and there is a chance that they do, Jones is not a cash viable play this week even in a Broncos defense that has allowed 125.5 yards rushing per game.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY

  • Devin Singletary is going to miss this week with a hamstring injury. This is a prime spot for Frank Gore who had 19 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown last week. If you need salary relief, he’s a risky play, but should see 15-20 carries this week.
  • Quarterbacks- Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Sam Darnold are all out this week, which leaves Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, and Luke Falk as starting quarterbacks on this slate. While all of these quarterbacks are cheap, you probably should not go with this approach this week. If there was a guy out of this group to go with, it would likely be Allen who we’ve seen perform in Week 17 last season throwing for 228 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a touchdown.
  • Damien Williams is out this week with a knee injury. There is going to be some people who gravitate towards LeSean McCoy or Darwin Thompson, but the reality is in a tough matchup this is probably unnecessary on a 0.5 PPR site. If you’re playing on a full PPR site, and want to go with Thompson due to his upside in the passing game that’s fine, but both of these players seem like a fade in FanDuel cash this week.
  • The Eagles are incredibly banged up with DeSean Jackson out with an abdomen injury, Alshon Jeffery is questionable with a calf injury, and Dallas Goedert is questionable with a calf injury. This should open the field for Nelson Agholor who had 8 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown last week and if he could have held on to the final target last week would have won the game with another long score. At just $4,800 even if Jeffery plays, should be a primary target for you this week.

THOUGHTS HEADING INTO THE SLATE

START PATRICK MAHOMES II UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

Weather concerns and the matchup are going to have some people concerned, but in reality, unless the Las Vegas line drops which as of this article on Saturday has not, you should not be afraid of the weather. Damien Williams is looking like he will miss this game which should only increase this offenses upside. Even with Tyreek Hill out, Andy Reid and Mahomes were able to take advantage of their speed in Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson to shred the Raiders last week as Mahomes threw for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns last week.

KEY CASH CORE

We already mentioned Patrick Mahomes II II who should be a part of your cash game core, he is some other players that you should look at in building your core this week.

Emmanuel Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders’ pricing is an absolute mystery. Sanders is $5,700 this week on FanDuel and all he has done the past two weeks is show that the torn Achilles tendon that he had last season is no longer an issue as he is averaging 92 yards and a touchdown this season. He faced the Bears in a tough matchup last week and caught 11 passes which only solidifies that he is the top player in this offense. Sanders moves around as much as any receiver in football but will see the most time against Jaire Alexander who has been targeted the most amongst this secondary.

Dallas Defense

At this point, we are changing course based on how bad the Dolphins offense is at this point. The Dolphins are moving to Josh Rosen who threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2018 with the Cardinals and so far this season has completed just 38% of his passes with two interceptions on 21 attempts. This is a situation where this Dolphins offense may be historically bad and we may be looking back at this $5,000 price point on FanDuel as simply too cheap. Dallas is a 21 point favorite in this game and has the talent at all three levels in Demarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, and Leighton Vander Esch/Jaylon Smith to shut down this Dolphins offense.

Mark Andrews

On FanDuel, the tight end pricing, for the most part, is fairly tightly grouped with Travis Kelce at the top by himself, and then a bunch of players within $1,000 of each other and then a significant drop-off to the bottom end players. What this does is encourages you to take the top player within that second group. This week, that player is Mark Andrews who has been outstanding for the Ravens so far this season averaging 8 receptions for 110 yards and has scored a touchdown in each of his two games. Look for the Ravens to target Andrews early and often in this game.

Ezekiel Elliott

After a Week 1 in which Elliott only saw 13 carries after missing the pre-season and training camp due to a hold out, Elliott came back in Week 2 with a performance we have grown accustomed to seeing rushing for 111 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. This week, Elliott gets the Dolphins who are allowing a league-high 194.5 yards rushing and have one of the worst linebacking groups in the NFL led by Raekwon McMillan. The Cowboys are 21 point favorites in this game and should see a heavy volume on the ground with Elliott. The only risk here is that they get out too far ahead and sit him in the second half, but if that is the case he should have at least found the end zone once.

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (PROJECTED POINTS = 138.4)

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – CASH+ BALTIMORE/CHIEFS GAME STACK (PROJECTED POINTS = 138.6)

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE CASH + - SPEND DOWN AT DEFENSE (PROJECTED POINTS = 136.1)

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