SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- New England (vs Miami) – 33.25 points
- Baltimore (vs Ari) – 30 points
- Kansas City (vs Oak) – 29.75 points
- Los Angeles Rams (NO) – 28.5 points
- Hou (vs Jax) – 26.75 points
BANKROLL STRATEGY- Low Dollar H2H
This week, going to focus on a strategy that has been covered on the bankroll blog that we used to have. In cash games, the biggest mistake that is made is that people enter several 50/50’s or double-up. The reality and problem with that strategy is that the cash line is most of the time the same, so it often is an all-or-nothing proposition which can be great if you win, but can be a killer to the bankroll if you lose.
The strategy that can be best utilized is the strategy of diversifying your contests. Ultimately, what this means is join $1 or $2 head-to-head contests. The reason for this is that even in weeks in which you may not have cashed in the 50/50 or double-up, you still are likely going to win a few of the head-to-head contests and get some money back.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 1
Week 2 is always an interesting week in that Week 1 is always highly scrutinized and reactions are made that sometimes are true, and sometimes are not.
Some of the situations to be cautious with are below:
- High variance speedsters had massive weeks last week across the board. There is going to be a tendency to want to play these players (DeSean Jackson, Marquise Brown, Ted Ginn Jr, etc). The reality is that these players are high variance players and should not consistently be trusted for cash games.
- Damien Harris status. You are probably asking yourself why Damien Harris’ name is being brought up in this article, and it’s a fair question. The reality is by scouring the actives/inactives before the game time you can often get a glimpse into the coaches mindset as far as what they want to do. Harris was not active in Week 1, but if he is, it will mean the Patriots are dressing four running backs indicating that they may go with a classic Bill Belichick run the ball and attack the weak spot of the Miami defense which is the linebacking group.
Injury Unlocks Opportunity
- Tyreek Hill went down with a shoulder injury which should unlock opportunity for the entire offense in Kansas City. Sammy Watkins is going to be the popular play in cash this week as will Mecole Hardman. Hardman is a speedster out of Georgia and will play a similar role as Hill. The Chiefs liked Hardman enough to take him in the second-round back when it was unclear whether Hill would be suspended or not.
- Joe Mixon is questionable this week with an ankle injury. While it looks like he will be able to go, if for some reason he was not able to go, Giovani Bernard would be one of the top plays in cash games this week at a significant discount of just $5,700.
- Chargers Hunter Henry is out with a knee injury and Mike Williams is extremely questionable with a knee injury. If both of these players are out, expect a lot of the volume to go through both Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen as they will be the primary players in this offense and most of the targets should go through them. Playing both guarantees you a high floor.
- Tevin Coleman is out with an ankle sprain, this opens up an opportunity for Matt Breida who should be the primary ball carrier in this game.
THOUGHTS HEADING INTO THE SLATE
Start Patrick Mahomes II Until Further Notice
$9,000 is a lot to pay for a normal quarterback, but we have to realize that Mahomes is not a normal quarterback. In cash games, he offers a floor that no other player on the slate can provide. Mahomes in his 17 games as a starting quarterback has thrown for 300 yards or more in 11 of those games and is averaging 322 yards and 3.1 touchdowns per game which is just a different player than the rest of the NFL at the position. Until he either proves that he is unable to keep this pace or FanDuel prices him at a point where you essentially are unable to have a competitive lineup with him in, he is a must-play in cash game every week.
Key Cash Core
We already mentioned Patrick Mahomes II who should be a part of your cash game core, he is some other players that you should look at in building your core this week.
Week 1 saw the Rams continue to have linebacking issues that we have seen the last couple of seasons. This is a team that is designed to stop the pass, and with Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews as two of their three primary linebackers who are pass defenders explains why the team struggled last week against Christian McCaffrey allowing 128 yards rushing with two touchdowns and 10 receptions for 81 yards. This is a unit that is led by Cory Littleton who was an undrafted free agent in 2016 and has remained a below-average linebacker in the NFL so far. This is a situation in which Kamara should have a big opportunity to post a similar week to McCaffrey. He should be a staple in your cash game lineups.
The Chargers seem comfortable rolling with Austin Ekeler as Melvin Gordon continues to not be a part of this team. Ekeler is the definition of a dual-threat in that he is a player who will see 12-15 carries each week along with playing a significant role in the passing game as we saw last week with Ekeler catching six of his seven targets and once he gets into space he is near impossible to tackle as he had 96 yards receiving. This is a player going up against the Lions who are strong up the middle but struggle at the linebacking and safety groups against the run. Expect Ekeler to play a significant role in this offense with no Hunter Henry and possibly no Mike Williams this week.
Waller is the beneficiary of playing on the late Monday game with FanDuel unable to update his price based on the time that they release their lineups. With no Antonio Brown in Oakland, Waller made the most of his first game against Denver catching seven of his eight targets for 70 yards and appears that the team will rely on him going forward similar to how they relied on Jared Cook last season who caught 68 passes for 896 yards. We are looking for ways to save money this week and at $5,400 is a great option to do so.
It is strange to be building a core around two Oakland Raiders, but in a matchup against the Chiefs in a game that both Williams and Waller are too cheap as the pricing is released before the Monday Night game is finalized. With the departure of Antonio Brown, Williams is stepping up into the number one receiver in Oakland and we saw him shine in what is a tough matchup against Chris Harris and the Broncos secondary. Both Williams and Waller combined saw 58% of Derek Carr’s targets this past week and at just $5,900 for Williams, he should be the most popular play in cash games this week.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – Primary CASH- Chiefs Stack (PROJECTED POINTS = 132.2)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC- $9,000
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $7,500
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO- $8,700
- WR Tyrell Williams OAK- $5,900
- WR Keenan Allen, MIN- $7,400
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC- $7,400
- TE Darren Waller, Oak- 5,400
- Flex WR, Mecole Hardman- $4,700
- TD New York Giants- $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – CASH If Mixon is Out (PROJECTED POINTS = 134.4)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC- $9,000
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $7,500
- RB Gio Bernard, Cin- $5,700
- WR Tyrell Williams OAK- $5,900
- WR Keenan Allen, MIN- $7,400
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC- $7,400
- TE Darren Waller, OAK- 5,400
- Flex RB, Chris Carson, SEA- $7,400
- TD Cincinnati Bengals- $3,900
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Cash+ Higher Risk (PROJECTED POINTS = 132.0)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC- $9,000
- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC- $7,500
- RB Matt Breida, SF- $5,600
- WR Tyrell Williams OAK- $5,900
- WR Mecole Hardman, MIN- $4,700
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA- $6,700
- TE Travis Kelce, KC- $8,000
- Flex RB, Alvin Kamara, NO- $8,700
- TD Cincinnati Bengals- $3,900
