Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 4

Weekly Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread). NFL Office Pool Cheat Sheet

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? Eighteen Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most-confident pick gets 16 points, and the least-confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an overall consensus on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered).
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and will not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last-minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly.
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games.

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Dave Larkin had an excellent week, only missing three games and finishing with 112 confidence points. Despite losing 14 points on the Eagles' surprising loss to Detroit, Larkin still finished at least a couple of points ahead of every other staffer in the contest. Having 13 correct picks was also at least two more correct picks than anyone else in the contest. Excellent week for Larkin.

Road Team
TEN
ATL
DET
MIA
OAK
CIN
NYJ
DEN
BAL
CAR
NYG
NO
HOU
PIT
LAR
CHI
Home Team
JAC
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
CLE
WAS
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Larkin
JAC
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
CAR
NYG
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
WAS
31
112
8
7
14
15
10
12
16
13
11
4
2
9
3
5
6
1
Brimacombe
JAC
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
40
110
6
5
12
16
13
11
15
14
10
4
9
1
3
8
2
7
Wimer
TEN
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
42
106
6
5
4
15
13
16
14
12
11
3
10
2
9
8
7
1
Hicks
JAC
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
CAR
NYG
SEA
HOU
PIT
CLE
CHI
41
102
2
7
12
16
11
8
15
13
14
6
5
10
9
1
4
3
Gray
TEN
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
NYG
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
38
101
3
4
8
16
9
14
15
10
11
7
1
13
2
12
6
5
Wood
JAC
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
CIN
NE
GB
KC
CAR
NYG
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
45
100
9
10
13
16
11
1
15
8
7
3
2
12
4
6
14
5
Buzzard
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
40
99
1
2
10
15
14
8
16
13
12
5
11
6
4
9
3
7
Grant
TEN
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
36
98
3
8
13
15
12
9
16
14
10
1
6
7
2
4
11
5
Haseley
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
NYG
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
40
98
6
10
11
15
12
9
16
3
8
14
4
5
2
7
1
13
Garda
TEN
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
40
97
10
9
5
16
14
6
15
13
11
1
4
7
3
2
12
8
Miglio
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
47
97
4
2
14
15
11
10
16
13
9
3
6
12
1
8
7
5
Roberts
TEN
ATL
DET
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
WAS
39
95
6
4
1
15
7
12
16
14
9
5
11
13
3
10
8
2
Knotts
JAC
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
45
94
1
7
12
16
13
8
15
14
9
2
6
10
5
11
3
4
Davenport
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
38
94
8
1
9
15
14
13
16
11
5
6
7
12
3
10
4
2
Pasquino
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
CAR
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
44
93
9
3
11
16
13
10
15
14
8
1
12
7
4
5
2
6
Tuccitto
TEN
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
49
92
10
6
4
15
5
12
16
13
3
8
2
11
9
14
7
1
Settle
JAC
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
CIN
NE
GB
KC
CAR
TB
SEA
HOU
SF
LAR
CHI
32
89
7
10
13
16
11
12
15
6
9
1
8
4
3
5
14
2
Bitonti
TEN
ATL
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
LAR
CHI
48
87
2
1
16
15
10
9
14
13
6
7
8
12
3
11
5
4
Away
TEN
ATL
DET
MIA
OAK
CIN
NYJ
DEN
BAL
CAR
NYG
NO
HOU
PIT
LAR
CHI
Total Pts
68
65
1
0
0
13
0
0
0
15
14
0
42
1
112
78
Home
JAC
IND
PHI
DAL
MIN
BUF
NE
GB
KC
ARI
TB
SEA
LAC
SF
CLE
WAS
Total Pts
33
36
181
278
203
167
276
211
163
66
100
153
30
135
4
3
Tot Conf Pts
101
101
182
278
203
180
276
211
163
81
114
153
72
136
116
81

While teams with the highest confidence points allocated all brought home wins, there were a couple of upsets that hurt most of the board. Keith Roberts was the only person who picked Detroit to beat the Eagles, and that decision cost everyone else 181 confidence points. The losses by Seattle and Tampa Bay took down another 250 confidence points from the board.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Larkin's big win this week moved him to the top of the leaderboard. James Brimacombe hasn't finished 1st in any of the first three weeks, but his strong, consistent performance is also starting to pay off. He is in second place, less than 1 confidence point per week off of Larkin's pace.

Staff Member
Wk01
Wk02
Wk03
Wk04
Wk05
Wk06
Wk07
Wk08
Wk09
Wk10
Wk11
Wk12
Wk13
Wk14
Wk15
Wk16
Wk17
Total
Larkin
111
93
112
316
Brimacombe
109
95
110
314
Miglio
115
97
97
309
Garda
115
94
97
306
Davenport
108
101
94
303
Buzzard
105
98
99
302
Grant
103
100
98
301
Knotts
113
93
94
300
Pasquino
113
92
93
298
Roberts
113
90
95
298
Gray
100
97
101
298
Haseley
104
94
98
296
Settle
112
92
89
293
Wimer
91
95
106
292
Wood
103
82
100
285
Tuccitto
105
87
92
284
Bitonti
101
87
87
275
Hicks
81
78
102
261

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week. The MNF column is each person's predicted total points scored for this week's Monday night game.

Road Team
PHI
WAS
CLE
NE
OAK
CAR
TEN
KC
LAC
TB
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
CIN
Home Team
GB
NYG
BAL
BUF
IND
HOU
ATL
DET
MIA
LAR
ARI
CHI
DEN
NO
PIT
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Miglio
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
ARI
CHI
DEN
NO
PIT
49
12
7
11
13
8
10
6
9
14
15
1
4
3
2
5
Davenport
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
PIT
48
9
4
12
10
6
8
7
14
13
15
11
2
1
5
3
Garda
GB
WAS
BAL
NE
IND
CAR
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
PIT
40
10
4
9
11
13
3
7
14
15
12
8
1
2
5
6
Hicks
GB
WAS
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
JAC
DAL
PIT
44
3
4
2
7
5
6
8
10
15
11
12
1
13
9
14
Gray
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
JAC
DAL
PIT
45
9
8
12
10
15
14
5
6
11
13
7
3
2
1
4
Tuccitto
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
NO
PIT
49
11
10
13
4
6
12
2
5
14
15
1
8
7
9
3
Larkin
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
NO
PIT
44
9
10
6
8
12
4
5
11
14
13
15
3
2
1
7
Knotts
GB
NYG
CLE
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
PIT
46
11
8
5
12
9
10
7
14
15
13
6
1
2
4
3
Brimacombe
PHI
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
ARI
CHI
JAC
NO
PIT
45
1
6
7
10
12
11
9
13
15
14
2
5
8
3
4
Wood
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
DEN
DAL
CIN
53
8
11
10
12
7
6
4
15
14
13
9
3
2
5
1
Haseley
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
DEN
DAL
CIN
39
8
7
14
12
10
6
5
11
15
13
9
3
1
4
2
Pasquino
PHI
WAS
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
DEN
DAL
PIT
44
2
4
11
12
10
9
5
14
13
15
8
6
1
3
7
Roberts
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
CAR
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
JAC
DAL
PIT
41
10
5
8
9
12
1
11
13
15
14
7
4
3
2
6
Wimer
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
PIT
38
11
8
14
7
13
6
10
5
15
12
4
3
2
9
1
Bitonti
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
DEN
DAL
PIT
48
13
6
12
11
10
5
7
9
14
15
8
2
1
4
3
Settle
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
JAC
NO
PIT
40
7
10
11
15
9
6
8
13
14
12
5
2
4
1
3
Buzzard
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
CHI
DEN
NO
PIT
40
7
2
11
13
12
5
8
10
15
14
9
3
4
1
6
Grant
GB
NYG
BAL
NE
IND
HOU
ATL
KC
LAC
LAR
SEA
MIN
DEN
DAL
PIT
41
11
6
13
12
7
9
8
14
3
15
10
4
1
2
5
Away
PHI
WAS
CLE
NE
OAK
CAR
TEN
KC
LAC
TB
SEA
MIN
JAC
DAL
CIN
Total Pts
3
12
5
188
0
4
0
200
244
0
129
27
46
53
3
Home
GB
NYG
BAL
BUF
IND
HOU
ATL
DET
MIA
LAR
ARI
CHI
DEN
NO
PIT
Total Pts
149
108
176
0
176
127
122
0
0
244
3
31
13
17
80
Tot Conf Pts
152
120
181
188
176
131
122
200
244
244
132
58
59
70
83

HEAVY FAVORITES

Despite a relatively low line of favorites from Las Vegas this week, the staffers have some very strong takes on this week's games. New England, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Kansas City, The Chargers and The Rams were all unanimous selections by everyone on the staff. Green Bay, Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh are also heavy favorites by a majority of the board.

DUAL SUPPORT

Two games stand out as the toughest to call for this week - Minnesota at Chicago and Jacksonville at Denver. The Vikings and Bears are bitter rivals, and both teams have some glaring weaknesses that could easily tip the scales either way this weekend. Jacksonville and Denver are both teams that have a lot of question marks, and while the trip to Denver usually favors the Broncos, Jacksonville has their share of backers as well. Both of these games have less than 60 total confidence points and the Minnesota - Chicago game is almost dead even. If your pool allows for ranking your picks, it's probably a good idea to move these games to the bottom.

ODDS AND ENDS

This week is the first where NFL teams will be on a bye. With only two teams off, we lose the top confidence slot, making 120 the total possible confidence points for the week. Some pools will drop the lowest score, but ours will track the opposite since it makes every miss even more critical with the smaller point pool.

Good luck this weekend!