Looking to dominate your office pool this season? Eighteen Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most-confident pick gets 16 points, and the least-confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an overall consensus on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:
- Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered).
- Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and will not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last-minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly.
- Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
|
Away Team:
|
GB
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
WAS
|
TEN
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
IND
|
DET
|
NYG
|
SF
|
PIT
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
|
|
Homes Team:
|
CHI
|
MIA
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Miglio
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
51
|
|
|
5
|
14
|
6
|
13
|
15
|
8
|
3
|
7
|
16
|
12
|
1
|
11
|
4
|
10
|
9
|
2
|
|
|
Davenport
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
34
|
|
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
12
|
16
|
7
|
6
|
3
|
14
|
11
|
1
|
15
|
2
|
10
|
9
|
4
|
|
|
Garda
|
GB
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
40
|
|
|
11
|
13
|
10
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
5
|
7
|
15
|
8
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
16
|
6
|
4
|
|
|
Hicks
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
44
|
|
|
13
|
10
|
15
|
7
|
16
|
12
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
1
|
14
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
|
|
Gray
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
PIT
|
NO
|
DEN
|
37
|
|
|
7
|
14
|
3
|
10
|
16
|
8
|
6
|
9
|
13
|
11
|
4
|
15
|
5
|
2
|
12
|
1
|
|
|
Tuccitto
|
GB
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
SF
|
PIT
|
NO
|
DEN
|
49
|
|
|
5
|
9
|
3
|
12
|
15
|
11
|
4
|
2
|
16
|
13
|
8
|
10
|
7
|
1
|
14
|
6
|
|
|
Larkin
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
44
|
|
|
10
|
14
|
7
|
9
|
16
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
15
|
12
|
5
|
11
|
2
|
8
|
13
|
1
|
|
|
Knotts
|
GB
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
45
|
|
|
6
|
16
|
4
|
15
|
14
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
13
|
12
|
3
|
9
|
2
|
11
|
10
|
1
|
|
|
Brimacombe
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
41
|
|
|
6
|
14
|
7
|
8
|
16
|
9
|
5
|
1
|
15
|
10
|
4
|
13
|
3
|
2
|
12
|
11
|
|
|
Wood
|
GB
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
43
|
|
|
8
|
10
|
9
|
2
|
16
|
11
|
7
|
6
|
15
|
14
|
5
|
13
|
3
|
12
|
1
|
4
|
|
|
Haseley
|
GB
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
42
|
|
|
6
|
13
|
9
|
14
|
15
|
12
|
11
|
2
|
16
|
7
|
4
|
10
|
1
|
5
|
8
|
3
|
|
|
Pasquino
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
47
|
|
|
6
|
15
|
4
|
12
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
7
|
16
|
10
|
1
|
11
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
2
|
|
|
Roberts
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
42
|
|
|
6
|
12
|
1
|
11
|
15
|
9
|
3
|
7
|
16
|
14
|
5
|
13
|
4
|
8
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
Wimer
|
GB
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
49
|
|
|
11
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
13
|
16
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
14
|
3
|
2
|
15
|
1
|
|
|
Bitonti
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
14
|
3
|
4
|
16
|
15
|
5
|
13
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
1
|
|
|
Settle
|
GB
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
38
|
|
|
2
|
16
|
9
|
15
|
11
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
1
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
|
|
Buzzard
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
DET
|
DAL
|
SF
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
48
|
|
|
8
|
13
|
5
|
6
|
16
|
9
|
7
|
1
|
15
|
14
|
4
|
12
|
3
|
11
|
10
|
2
|
|
|
Grant
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
MIN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
DEN
|
44
|
|
|
5
|
11
|
6
|
9
|
16
|
12
|
3
|
8
|
15
|
13
|
7
|
10
|
4
|
1
|
14
|
2
|
|
|
Away
|
GB
|
BAL
|
ATL
|
KC
|
WAS
|
TEN
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
IND
|
DET
|
NYG
|
SF
|
PIT
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
|
|
Total Pts
|
49
|
225
|
11
|
174
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
74
|
0
|
0
|
28
|
0
|
23
|
3
|
1
|
34
|
|
|
Home
|
CHI
|
MIA
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
ARI
|
DAL
|
TB
|
NE
|
NO
|
OAK
|
|
|
Total Pts
|
76
|
0
|
111
|
9
|
260
|
177
|
97
|
34
|
255
|
202
|
38
|
206
|
38
|
121
|
171
|
20
|
|
|
Tot Conf Pts
|
125
|
225
|
122
|
183
|
260
|
177
|
108
|
108
|
255
|
202
|
66
|
206
|
61
|
124
|
172
|
54
|
|
Note: Tot Conf Pts reflects the total confidence points that were placed on both teams. A higher total (E.G. 260 for the Eagles this week) indicates that the staff is very confident in the outcome of this game. A lower total (E.G. 54 for DEN-OAK) indicates that the staff is less confident in the game as a whole, and the majority of the staff did not risk a lot of points on this game either way.
HEAVY FAVORITES
It’s prudent to approach week 1 with a bit of caution. Some teams are clearly expected to have an easy win, but there are enough questions to make you wonder on several contests this week. First, let’s talk about the easy games. The staff is all behind Baltimore, Philadelphia, Seattle, the LA Chargers, Dallas (with Zeke now). These teams all received over 200 confidence points (more than 11 points per staffer) and all are heavily favored to win their games. These teams should be at the top of your leaderboard when it comes to expected wins.
Minnesota, Kansas City, Cleveland, the New York Jets, New England, and New Orleans are all expected to win their respective games as well. Some guys put a point or two on their opponents, but all averaged less than 1 point per staffer. It’s important to have a little differentiation in these type of contests, but the confidence in an upset for any of these games is very low.
DUAL SUPPORT
Tonight’s game between Chicago and Green Bay has the Bears with a decided home-field advantage. However, a good chunk of the staff sees the Packers as having the potential for an upset. These teams clearly hate each other, so it makes sense to move the game toward the bottom of the confidence pool either way. The Rams are expected to win this week as well, but the ‘West Coast Team traveling East’ facet of the game has some people picking the Panthers for the home upset. Arizona and Tampa are both expected to win, but Detroit and San Francisco both have their share of support as well. These games should be near the bottom of your confidence board.
The toughest game of the week to call is actually the last one – the Monday Night game between Denver and Oakland. This game received the lowest total confidence points (just 54) and the visiting Broncos are picked to win, but only have 34 confidence points on them in total. This game has an average of just 3 confidence points per staffer on it, regardless of who is the winner. This game should definitely be ranked near the bottom of your office pool.
ODDS AND ENDS
With a full 16 game slate this week, having a perfect score will give you 136 total points. As we move through the season, the maximum total will drop based on the number of teams that are on a bye.
As an additional reminder - these picks and confidence points were made on Wednesday night so that this article may come out well before the Thursday opener. These picks won't be updated either as the week progresses, so any late-breaking news will not change the confidence points. If your league allows you to change your picks right up until each NFL game starts, make sure to check the latest news before making your final selections.
Good luck this weekend!
