2019 Army-Navy Game Breakdown
This weekend, after conference championships, bowl games, and the playoff picture have all been decided, we are treated to one of the greatest traditions in college football. Army and Navy face off in the lone FBS football game of the week on Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, making it a true neutral-site game. Navy leads the all-time series 60-52-7, but Army is making a surge in recent years with a 3-game win streak (which also happened to come on the heels of a 14-game losing streak in the matchup.) This season the betting markets have Navy favored by 10.5 points, with the total set at 41 points and dropping.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have posted single-game contests for this storied matchup, with a $40,000 tournament on DraftKings ($10,000 to first) and a $15,000 tournament on FanDuel ($3,000 to first.)
THIS ARTICLE WILL BE UPDATED AS CRITICAL INFORMATION COMES IN LEADING UP TO KICKOFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALL UPDATES WILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE ARTICLE.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
Navy's Season
The Navy Midshipmen enter this game 9-2 after a strong campaign in the American Athletic Conference. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo followed up his first losing season in charge of Navy's football team with an ultra-impressive strength-of-record. According to Football Reference's SRS statistic, their 9-2 mark is objectively the 19th-most-impressive season in FBS football, and only 18 other teams could have been expected to play as well or better than them, given their schedule and results. Overall, the Midshipmen's 2019 campaign has been a return to normalcy under Niumatalolo, as the team ranks 34th in the nation, according to SP+, entering this weekend's game.
Army's Season
The Army Black Knight's season has been a bit disappointing, as they will not be bowl eligible this season after a 5-7 campaign filled with injuries at key positions. Kelvin Hopkins, Jr., the team's returning starting quarterback, was spelled at times this season by a handful of backup quarterbacks due to both injury and performance. Although his passing prowess is masked in their triple-option attack, his drop from over 11 yards per attempt last season to 7.6 this year is a bit worrying. Overall, Army, coming off of an 11-2 record last season, has underperformed in 2019. As the 64th-ranked team in the nation, according to SP+, they are at a significant disadvantage this weekend.
Now, let's dive into the details of this specific game and develop a plan of attack for single-game DFS action.
Captain/MVP Analysis
Strategy
Allow me to preface this by clarifying some rules differences between FanDuel and DraftKings on this single-game slate. Aside from the different scoring systems, which I am not going to delve into here, the Captain/MVP position is one fundamental difference in lineup construction between the two sites. On DraftKings, each lineup's Captain scores 1.5x points; however, they also cost 1.5x their standard salary. On FanDuel, the lineup's MVP still scores 1.5x points, yet their price in the MVP slot is unchanged. This change adds another element of skill and strategy to lineup construction on DraftKings, as budgeting for top-priced players in the Captain spot can be difficult. On FanDuel, however, aside from normal game-theory decisions in tournaments, simply rostering the best player on the slate as a lineup's MVP is the optimal strategy.
Player Analysis
Note: Each player listed in this Captain/MVP section makes for a strong Flex option this weekend- they are not exclusively to be considered in the Captain/MVP positions.
Malcolm Perry
Last season, Malcolm Perry played running back for Navy, and he led the team in rushing attempts and yards on the season. Down the stretch, following a barrage of injuries elsewhere, he played some quarterback, attempting 25 passes on the season, but he was primarily a running back. In 2019, Ken Niumatalolo opted to maximize his rushing production by putting him under-center full-time in the team's triple-option rushing attack. On the season, Perry has surpassed 100 rushing yards in 8 straight games and 9 out of 11 overall. Perry's rushing volume is as secure as anyone's in this triple-option offense, and his status as the highest-priced player on the slate is well-earned. On DraftKings, the requisite value plays are available to allow players to roster Malcolm Perry in their captain slots. On FanDuel, he is the optimal captain choice for the slate, ignoring ownership numbers, but he is a bit tougher to fit into lineups.
In sum, Perry will likely be the most-rostered player on the slate, both overall and in the Captain/MVP slots, as his secure level of production is unmatched in this game. Expect Malcolm Perry to post another 20-carry and 100-yard performance this weekend with perhaps the highest touchdown-equity of anyone in the game.
Kelvin Hopkins, Jr.
Opposite Malcolm Perry, Kelvin Hopkins, Jr. is likely to start for the Army Black Knights under-center. However, keep tabs on his status leading up to kickoff, as he left the team's last game early due to an injury. No public statement regarding Hopkins, Jr.'s status has been made. Based on various social media outlets and posts, he seems likely to play this weekend, but it is still worth keeping an eye on because if he doesn't play, the outlook on this matchup changes dramatically from a fantasy perspective. Kelvin Hopkins, Jr. has tallied the second-most rushing attempts on Army's team this season, ranking second behind their fullback, Connor Slomka. However, on a per-game basis when he is active for the team, Hopkins, Jr. is the team's number-one rusher. Additionally, Hopkins, Jr. flashed last season as a proficient passer with 11.0 yards per attempt on the year. This season, he has been far less effective, at just 7.6 yards per attempt, but based on his 2018 numbers, the potential for a stronger passing day is undeniable. Typically, Army's triple-option offense elects to run the ball in heavy volume (on the season, they've run the ball approximately 85-percent of the time.) However, against Navy's susceptible pass defense with Army expected to play from behind for the majority of the game, Hopkins, Jr. could feasibly reach his ceiling of passing production. For reference, he aired it out 24 times for 170 yards and a score in the team's Week 6 42-33 loss to Tulane.
Overall, Kelvin Hopkins, Jr. has a safe floor of rushing production this weekend. While he is not particularly close to Malcolm Perry in terms of projected fantasy scoring, Hopkins, Jr.'s ceiling of passing production could tip the scales in his favor, making him a strong candidate for either Captain or Flex roster spots.
Camden Harrison
In an unexpected twist to a Army-Navy game between two triple-option teams that run the ball on an average of 86-percent of offensive snaps, Camden Harrison jumps out as a sneaky option to Captain DFS lineups on DraftKings only. In a vacuum, Harrison's weekly volume through the air in Army's offense is uninspiring. However, as the team's number-one wide receiver in a game that the Black Knights are projected to lose by over 10 points, he could near his ceiling of receiving production this weekend. Harrison averages five targets per game this season, almost twice as many as any other player in this game on either side. In the team's 24-pass-attempt game against Tulane earlier this season, Harrison registered 10 targets on the afternoon. This weekend, Camden Harrison offers the highest ceiling of any player priced below $6,000 on DraftKings, making him an exceptional contrarian Captain option.
In total, at $3,600 on DraftKings, he is a strong option in all formats as either a Captain or Flex play. On FanDuel, at $10,000, he is not as strong of a play, but he still warrants consideration as a high-risk MVP for a tournament lineup.
Jamale Carothers
Jamale Carothers has taken a stranglehold on the starting fullback job in Navy's backfield down the stretch this season. After Nelson Smith opened the season as the team's starter, Smith's rushing volume has dwindled recently, with no more than five carries in any of his last four outings. On the other hand, Carothers has tallied at least eight carries in all four games. At the fullback position in the triple-option, Carothers' role in Navy's offense is extremely valuable around the end zone. Last time out, against Houston's horrific run defense, Carothers posted over 185 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. While he is unlikely to match these incredible totals, Carothers' role in the team's red-zone offense provides a massive ceiling of fantasy production. His likelihood of finding the end zone multiple times this weekend is as high as anyone in the game except, perhaps, Malcolm Perry, his quarterback.
Overall, Carothers warrants Captain and MVP consideration this weekend thanks to the discount relative to the two quarterbacks in this matchup, and his touchdown equity helps his ceiling approach that of both Malcolm Perry and Kelvin Hopkins, Jr.
FLEX POSITION ANALYSIS
Sandon McCoy
Sandon McCoy, as Army's number-one fullback, plays a large and vital role in the Black Knights' offense. McCoy is 3rd on the team in carries, but he enters this weekend's game just 18 carries behind the team leader. McCoy also leads the team with 10 rushing touchdowns this season, which encapsulates his valuable role in Army's red-zone offense. Since he effectively splits time with Connor Slomka at fullback, he has only registered 1 20-carry game this season, and without significant volume, he cannot be counted on as a potential Captain or MVP candidate in lineups this weekend.
In conclusion, in a game between two teams that typically spread production thinly across numerous players on a regular basis, lineups will be filled-out by simply the least-bad option. Sandon McCoy's floor of production and potential red-zone work for Army make him a great candidate for a Flex spot in lineups across all formats. In a vacuum, his projections are uninspiring, but in the context of this game, McCoy is viable in all formats this weekend.
DRAFTKINGS ONLY
Bijan Nichols
While drafting a $3,000 kicker in a single-game slate may sound uninspiring, a pricing error on behalf of DraftKings' pricing algorithm has opened up an unexpected value option. Bijan Nichols, Navy's kicker, is priced as the team's backup this weekend. While his ceiling is not high enough to warrant Captain consideration, his recent floor of production is much stronger than almost any other player outside of the few top-end options elsewhere. Bijan Nichols has scored at least 8.0 DraftKings points in each of his last 5 games, and at just $3,000, that floor of production is viable for all formats. His salary-saving price tag affords the ability to pay-up elsewhere, which is essential in a matchup with so much of the expected production concentrated with a few players atop the player pool.
At $3,000, Bijan Nichols offers a subtly-strong floor of fantasy production this weekend, as the starting kicker for a Navy team that is expected to win this game by over 10 points.
Wagering Analysis
For those that prefer a simple wager against the sportsbooks instead of entering single-game DFS contests, consider Army +10.5 (-110) this weekend. Army's 2019 campaign has been disappointing overall, but they've been quite unlucky throughout the season in many critical situations. Kelvin Hopkins, Jr.'s disappointing performance is a leading factor behind their struggles. However, against Navy's porous pass defense, Hopkins, Jr.'s passing prowess, should he return to his form of yesteryear, could be an unexpected X-factor this weekend. 10 is a key number in football betting, as games are decided by exactly 10 points almost as often as any number. This line should likely be closer to the one-touchdown range (Army +7,) but with the vital extra 3.5 points of value, Army +10.5 is worth considering on Saturday afternoon.
UPDATES
UPDATE #1 at 4:45pm ET on Friday: Army's first statements regarding Kelvin Hopkins, Jr.'s availability have made this situation an absolute nightmare. "We're going to go with the guys we have available" is effectively a non-answer, and we will have to monitor this situation very closely during pregame warm-ups to get a strong read on who will start at quarterback for the Black Knights.
UPDATE #2 at 2:45pm ET on Saturday: Kelvin Hopkins, Jr. appears to be the likely starter this afternoon, as he is working with the starting unit in warmups
