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After last weekend's much-hyped "Game of the Century" between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers lived up to the hype, this weekend's slate of games featuring multiple games with big-time playoff implications has some extremely large shoes to fill. One of the two games that could have a lasting impact on the College Football Playoff picture is a clash between two SEC rivals: Auburn and Georgia. This game, which is on the DraftKings main slate of games, features two of the nation's most talented defenses, and with a total of just north of 40 points, it should be a true barn-burner. The Georgia Bulldogs slipped up against an unranked South Carolina Gamecocks team earlier this season, but they control their own destiny. If they win-out, including the SEC Championship game, they are practically guaranteed a berth in the College Football Playoff; however, one more falter could put a definitive end to their 2019-2020 College Football Playoff dreams. The other game with big-time playoff implications is going down in Oklahoma, where the Sooners play host to the undefeated Baylor Bears. The College Football Playoff ranking committee has shown the Baylor Bears very little respect by ranking them 13th in the nation entering this week, behind multiple 2-loss teams despite their status as 1 of the 5 remaining undefeated teams in FBS college football. On the other hand, Oklahoma will need to run the table in impressive fashion from here on out to make a case for their bid in the College Football Playoff this year. Following an upset loss to the Kansas State Wildcats, the Oklahoma Sooners will have their work cut out for themselves convincing the ranking committee that they deserve to be ranked as one of the four most-deserving teams in the nation. Whichever teams wins this battle atop the Big 12 standings will add a signature win to their resume, while the loser's hopes of making their way into the College Football Playoff this season will be all but dashed.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Kansas @ Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State -16.5, Total: 67.5
- Memphis @ Houston | Memphis -10, Total: 69
- Texas @ Iowa State | Iowa State -7, Total: 66.5
- Stanford @ Washington State | Washington State -10.5, Total: 63
- Georgia @ Auburn | Georgia -3, Total: 40.5
- Michigan State @ Michigan | Michigan -14, Total: 44.5
Quarterback
Brock Purdy, Iowa State, $8,200
Fresh off of a near-comeback against the cream of the Oklahoma Sooners, Brock Purdy, and the Iowa State Cyclones play host to the struggling Texas Longhorns this weekend. Texas entered this season with sky-high expectations; however, due to an underperforming defense, their preseason aspirations are no more than a pipe dream at this point. The Longhorns are without multiple opening-day starters at the back-end of their defense. Arguably their most-talented healthy defensive back, Jalen Green, is suspended for the first half of this weekend's game due to a targeting penalty he committed late last week. In Purdy's 5 non-blowout conference games this season, he averages 31.61 DraftKings points per game, including multiple performances of more than 40 points. This weekend, quarterbacking Iowa State's offense that is projected by the betting market to score nearly 40 points, Brock Purdy is poised for another offensive eruption. Texas' defense has allowed an average of 32.72 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks over their last 5 games, including 4 performances of at least 31.12 points during that span. At $8,200, Purdy tops the charts as the quarterback position thanks to his rushing and passing capabilities, and he's viable in both cash games and tournaments against a porous Longhorns secondary here in Week 12.
Max Duggan, TCU, $6,300
Max Duggan, TCU's freshman quarterback, is one of the most reliable and consistently-underpriced quarterbacks on Week 12's main slate of games. Over his last 4 games, Duggan is producing 13.23 DraftKings points per game on the ground, including 1 100-yard performance, and 3 rushing touchdowns. While his passing totals have been sub-par, this weekend, he faces off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders' struggling secondary. Texas Tech ranks dead-last on the Week 12 main slate of games with 308.6 passing yards allowed per game. While these totals may be a product of volume in some cases, the Red Raiders' efficiency metrics are not much better, ranking fourth-worst on the slate in adjusted yards per attempt allowed and attempts per first down allowed through the air. Although Duggan has posted an average of 23.51 DraftKings points per game over the last 4 games, his price has barely moved. The Horned Frogs enter this game as 3-point favorites on the road, and they are projected to score nearly 30 points on the day. There should be no shortage of scoring opportunities for Duggan and the TCU offense against the Red Raiders, who rank as one of the fastest-paced teams on the slate. At $6,300, Max Duggan is one of the strongest and safest value options on the entire slate, regardless of position, and he is a strong cash-game or tournament option, especially in lineups lacking a high-priced quarterback option elsewhere, like Brock Purdy.
Davis Mills, Stanford, $4,800
Stanford's normal starting quarterback, K.J. Costello, is doubtful for this weekend's clash with the Washington State Cougars. Their backup, Davis Mills, returned to practice in full this week after missing recent weeks due to a calf injury. Mills is an undeniably-talented passer, as he entered college as the number-one quarterback recruit in the 2017 class, which also featured players like Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm, and Sam Ehlinger. Although Mills has been inconsistent across his three starts this season, a matchup against Washington State's horrendous defense is impossible to ignore this weekend. The Washington State Cougars allow the second-most adjusted yards per attempt of any team on the slate this weekend. Opposing quarterbacks have scored more than 30 DraftKings points on the Cougars' defense in 3 out of their last 5 games. No matter what way you slice it, Washington State fields one of the nation's weakest defenses in almost every phase of the game. Their defensive line struggles to pressure opposing quarterbacks, even in obvious passing situations. Also, Washington State's secondary has failed to generate turnovers against respectable opponents this season, even given the exceptionally high volume they have faced through the air. At just $4,800, Davis Mills' price is unfathomably low on a slate that lacks many secure quarterbacks options at any price point. Expect Davis Mills to be one of the sharpest and most-popular quarterback options on the slate, and he is a strong play in all formats in Week 12.
Secondary Option
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, $7,800
After a disappointing start to the 2019 season production-wise, Trevor Lawrence, one of the most-hyped quarterbacks in recent memory, has found a groove in recent weeks. Lawrence has thrown for 3 touchdowns in 4 straight games while hovering between 218 and 276 passing yards in each game. Somewhat unexpectedly, Lawrence has proven to be an above-average rushing quarterback here in his sophomore year. Last season, Lawrence compiled 177 rushing yards on 60 carries and 1 touchdown over his 15 games. This season, Lawrence already has 321 rushing yards on 58 carries and a whopping 7 rushing touchdowns. Against FBS competition, the true sophomore quarterback is scoring 8.23 DraftKings points per game on the ground. This weekend, a soft matchup against Wake Forest's mediocre and untested pass defense is an elite opportunity for Lawrence to explode for a massive fantasy performance. He has neared the 300-passing-yard bonus on multiple occasions this season, and this weekend is a prime spot for him to finally eclipse that mark. If Trevor Lawrence can pair a 300-yard passing day with his typical rushing production, he could be in for a massive fantasy performance against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At $7,800, he is a sharp tournament pivot away from the other top-priced options like Brock Purdy.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State, $8,800
In his first season as the Oklahoma State starting running back, Chuba Hubbard has quickly made a name for himself thanks to uncanny consistency on the ground. Hubbard averages 28.5 carries per game this season, and he has posted at least 20 carries, 116 rushing yards, and 1 touchdown in every game against FBS competition in 2019. This consistent workload and production are exceptionally rare in college football, but Hubbard is by far the most reliable running back in the nation. This weekend, Hubbard and the Oklahoma State Cowboys play host to the Kansas Jayhawks, a team that has long been the laughing stock of the Big 12 conference. While Kansas is much improved this season, with as many wins through nine games as they totaled in the previous two seasons combined, their run defense still ranks amongst the worst in the nation. The Jayhawks have allowed a slate-worst 235 rushing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game this season. They're allowing a first down every 3.6 rushing attempts, which is also the worst mark on the slate, as well as over 5.0 yards per carry, which is second-worst on the slate. Oklahoma State's offense has been exceptionally run-heavy in 2019 while they ease a true freshman, Spencer Sanders, into the fold at quarterback. The Cowboys' new offensive coordinator, Sean Gleeson, is an extremely creative play-caller, and he is putting his schematic prowess to good use creating new ways to get Chuba Hubbard into space via the ground game. Even at his expensive $8,800 price tag, Chuba Hubbard is the strongest play on this slate, regardless of position. Confidently build lineups around Hubbard in all formats this weekend, as he is poised for another massive day against the Kansas Jayhawks' shaky defensive front.
Najee Harris, Alabama, $6,400
Najee Harris has emerged as Alabama's go-to running back over the last four games after splitting backfield duties with Brian Robinson early in the year. Harris has tallied at least 19 carries in 3 out of the team's last 4 games, which he has converted into at least 20.6 DraftKings points in all 4 outings. During that span, he averages 29.3 DraftKings points per game thanks to improved rushing efficiency coupled with 4 targets per game through the air. Alabama's star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, is day-to-day with a high ankle sprain that had him hobbled throughout last week's loss to LSU. Tagovailoa had a noticeable limp after the adrenaline of such a high-profile game wore off, and he has been limited in practice all week. Head coach Nick Saban said Tagovailoa is day-to-day and a likely game-time-decision for Saturday's bout with the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Most reporters expect Tagovailoa to play, but he will undoubtedly be operating at less-than-100-percent if he does take the field. Expect the Crimson Tide to rely heavily upon their potent rushing attack in the game to preserve the health of Tagovailoa as best as they possibly can. Although Mississippi State fields a formidable run defense, Alabama's offensive line is one of the best in the nation, and they have dominated top-tier SEC defenses all season, and this weekend should be no different. Expect Najee Harris to continue to see significant volume both on the ground and through the air this weekend, as Alabama's rushing volume should increase from last week's totals in a game they are favored to win by over 18 points. Running behind an elite offensive line, Harris is a strong running back option in all formats this weekend, and he is the number one option in the $6,000 range at the position.
Breece Hall, Iowa State, $6,800
Since Breece Hall took over the starting role in Iowa State's backfield, he has been nearly unstoppable for the Cyclones. Hall is seeing considerable and consistent volume each week, registering at least 18 carries in all 4 starts, and he contributes 3.5 targets per game through the air as well. The true freshman averages 32.6 DraftKings points per game across his 4 starts, posting at least 21.3 DraftKings points in every game. Hall is one of the most consistent running backs in the country, and this weekend he and the Iowa State Cyclones play host to the struggling Texas Longhorns as seven-point favorites. As home favorites, their rushing volume should continue at a comparable level to what Hall has enjoyed throughout his first four starters. Also, with a projected team total of over 36 points, the Cyclones' offense is expected to light up the scoreboard in a clash between two teams jockeying for position in the middle of the Big 12 standings. Hall is one of the most likely touchdown scorers on the slate, especially considering he found the endzone multiple times in three of his four starts. At $6,800, Hall will not come cheap in Week 12, but he is as reliable as any running back below $8,000 on this slate. Hall is a viable cash or tournament option this weekend, and stacking him alongside Brock Purdy is a viable strategy to capture nearly 100-percent of the Iowa State Cyclones' offensive production against a sputtering Texas Longhorns' defense.
Secondary Option
D'Andre Swift, Georgia, $7,500
The following needs to be made very clear from the get-go: D'Andre Swift is a high-risk and high-reward tournament-only option here in Week 12. He should not be considered in cash-games, as there are much safer options at both slightly higher and lower price points. However, his sky-high talent level and usage trends make him a high-ceiling option against a stout Auburn Tigers defense this weekend.
On the whole, D'Andre Swift's 2019 volume has been inconsistent. The Georgia Bulldogs have regularly utilized multiple backs, including Swift, Brian Herrien, and Zamir White. As one of the top teams in the country, the Bulldogs have blown out many of their opponents this season. However, in their four close games this season, Swift, the most talented running back in Georgia's backfield, has dominated the battle for playing time and usage. Throughout the entire season, Swift averages about 16 carries for 102 yards and just over 0.75 touchdowns per game. In their four closest matchups, those numbers spike to 21.75 carries for 119 yards and 1 touchdown per game. All four of Georgia's closest games (against Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Notre Dame, respectively) rank as Swifts four highest-volume games this season. This weekend, against the Auburn Tigers, the Georgia Bulldogs are only three-point favorites, which should lead to a heavy dose of D'Andre Swift. Auburn's defensive-front is undeniably one of the nation's best, but the same can be said for Georgia's offensive line. In Auburn's 3 previous games against top-10 competition, they allowed C.J. Verdell, Lamical Perine, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire each to run for 5.4, 9.3, and 5,2 yards per carry, respectively, to go with 1 touchdown for all 3 players. D'Andre Swift's volume should increase dramatically in an SEC showdown between two of the best teams in the country, and, as one of the nation's most talented running backs, he is in a position to gash the Auburn Tigers defense and shine on the national stage once again. Consider Swift as a high-risk pivot away from the $8,000+ running back options in tournaments this week, but not in cash-games.
Wide Receiver
Devin Duvernay, Texas, $6,800
Devin Duvernay is already one of the nation's highest-volume wide receivers as it is. This weekend, the Texas Longhorns will potentially be without their star number-two wide receiver, Collin Johnson, who has commanded an average of 12 targets per game over his last 3 appearances. Johnson missed extended time earlier this season due to a hamstring injury, and he tweaked his hamstring once again on the final drive of last week's game against Kansas State. Johnson reportedly received "aggressive treatment" for the injury all week in hopes that he would be good to go for a must-win game against the Iowa State Cyclones, but the outlook is bleak. A recurring hamstring injury does not bode well for Collin Johnson's chances of either (1) being at 100-percent for this weekend's game if he does manage to take the field or (2) getting through a full game without another recurrence of the injury. Without Johnson on the field over a three-game stretch earlier this season, Duvernay commanded at least 33-percent of all targets directed at wide receivers in the Longhorns offense. On top of that, this weekend is poised to be a high-volume passing day for the Texas offense, as they are seven-point underdogs. In Texas' 3 losses this season, their offense has thrown the ball 47, 38, and 48 times, respectively, which accounts for 3 of quarterback Sam Ehlinger's 4 highest-volume passing games this season. Should the Longhorns be playing from behind once again here in Week 12, as they are expected to, Devin Duvernay's already sky-high target totals should increase even more. At $6,800, Duvernay is a pricey pass-catching option on the slate, but he provides both an elite floor and ceiling of production here against the Iowa State Cyclones. Duvernay is a top-tier cash-game and tournament option this weekend, especially if Collin Johnson is unable to play or playing at less-than-100-percent.
Damonte Coxie, Memphis, $5,900
Damonte Coxie, Memphis' number-one wide receiver, has recorded back-to-back 100-yard receiving days for the Tigers over his last 2 outings, and now he is gifted an elite matchup against the floundering Houston Cougars' defense. Coxie has been a consistent fantasy producer this season, posting at least 10.4 DraftKings points in every game, and his involvement in Memphis' offense has spiked in recent weeks. Coxie averages 10.5 targets per game over his last 4 games, nearly 2.5 targets more than his average on the season as a whole. Houston's defense ranks dead-last on this week's main slate of games in adjusted yards per attempt allowed through the air, which provides an elite fantasy environment for all of Memphis' reasonably-priced pass-catchers. Houston has already allowed 6 different wide receivers to surpass 100 receiving yards this season, and Damonte Coxie is by far the most likely player on the Memphis Tigers' roster to add to this list here in Week 12. At $5,900, Coxie will not break the bank, and he stands out as the number-one wide receiver option on the slate in this price range. Consider Coxie as an option in both cash games and tournaments this weekend, as a soft matchup with the Houston Cougars' defense is as good as it gets on this slate.
Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State, $5,000
The Oklahoma State Cowboys lost their number-one receiver, Tylan Wallace, to a season-ending ACL injury last week in practice. Wallace was inarguably one of the nation's most-talented pass-catchers when healthy, and his loss changes the complexion of Oklahoma State's entire passing game. The rest of the Cowboys' pass-catching options pale in comparison to Wallace, but through the air, Dillon Stoner appears to be the most likely candidate to fill the role of being the team's most-targeted wide receiver. In the eight games when Wallace was healthy, Stoner was the second-most-targeted receiver in five of them. Last weekend, in Oklahoma State's first game without Wallace this season, Stoner led the team with seven targets, while the next-most-targeted player had just three. The Cowboys utilized an exceptionally low-volume passing attack, considering they had to reconstruct their entire offensive attack on extremely short notice, and they only threw the ball 15 times on the day. Still, nearly half of those pass attempts went Stoner's way. It will be nearly impossible for Dillon Stoner to continue to command nearly 50-percent of the total targets in Oklahoma State's passing attack, but he seems to be ready to emerge as the team's new number-one receiver. A Week 12 matchup against the Kansas Jayhawks will likely bring about at least a slightly-more-pass-heavy offensive attack from the Cowboys' offense. In which case, Stoner's volume through the air will almost certainly continue to impress, and at his $5,000 price tag on DraftKings, he makes for one of the safest value plays at the wide receiver position. On a slate that lacks secure bargain-bin options at wide receiver, Dillon Stoner will likely be one of the most reliable and most popular low-end options at the position. Consider rostering Stoner in all formats in Week 12, as there are few other cheap wide receivers worth considering on this slate.
K.J. Hamler, Penn State, $6,200
Even against top-flight defenses this season, K.J. Hamler has continually shined as the Penn State Nittany Lion's number-one pass catcher. Over his last 4 games, which are undoubtedly the 4 toughest games of Penn State's schedule to date, Hamler has scored at least 17.1 DraftKings points in each game. Hamler has posted at least 100 receiving yards or 1 touchdown in 6 straight games, and this week's matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers is another great opportunity for Hamler to prove that pricing him around $6,000 week-in and week-out makes very little sense. Hamler is Penn State's clear-cut number-one receiver, and their offense made a concerted effort to increase his volume in the passing attack about one month ago through an increased number of short targets, rather than almost exclusively downfield targets. Over the last month, Hamler is averaging 11.5 targets per game, up a full 3.5 targets from his season-long mark of 8 targets per game. The increased usage has done him well, and although this weekend's matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers looks tough on the surface, after peeling back the layers of their metrics, it is nothing to be afraid of. Through nine games this season, the Indiana Hoosiers have played one of the nation's softest schedules of opposing passing attacks. The lone above-average passing attack they have faced, the Ohio State Buckeyes, threw for 3 touchdowns on over 10.8 adjusted yards per attempt in their 51-10 blowout victory over the Hoosiers. Expect K.J. Hamler to continue to shine this weekend, as the Nittany Lions look to get their season back on track following last weekend's loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. At just $6,200, Hamler is underpriced once again this weekend. His increased volume in Penn State's passing attack provides a strong floor of production, and his big-play ability offers a massive ceiling. Consider rostering K.J. Hamler in all formats against the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 12.
Secondary Option
Whop Philyor, Indiana, $4,900
Whop Philyor is one of the few viable bargain-bin wide receivers this week alongside Dillon Stoner, but Philyor is much less reliable and in a much tougher matchup, which makes him a tournament-only candidate for Week 12 lineups. Philyor has one of the highest target ceilings of any wide receiver on this slate, with games of 12, 17, and 19 targets in his last 5 games; however, mixed in with those impressive totals are games of just 3 and 5 targets as well. This weekend, the Hoosiers face one of their toughest tests thus far this season, as they are two-touchdown underdogs to the Penn State Nittany Lions. As heavy underdogs, the Hoosiers will likely need to utilize their passing attack early and often in an attempt to mount a comeback. Unsurprisingly, Philyor's target totals correlate directly with Indiana's total pass attempt numbers each week, as his market share of total targets in the team's offense is consistently either first or second-highest on the team each week. Penn State's pass defense also grades as one of the strongest units on the slate, which does not bode well for Philyor's floor of production this weekend. However, massive target totals may trump these impressive efficiency marks and lead to another eruption out of the junior wide receiver. Philyor has registered at least 31.2 DraftKings points in 3 out of his last 5 games, and a high-volume passing game from Indiana's offense this weekend very well could make that 4 out of 6 games. Consider Whop Philyor as a low-priced, high-ceiling option in tournaments only this weekend. Against Penn State's formidable pass defense, his floor of production is extremely low compared to the other wide receivers listed above, and he is too risky of an option for sharp cash lineups in Week 12.