Following a bit of a down week in college football aside from one headlining clash between SEC East foes Georgia and Florida battling for position atop the division, the week 11 college football schedule is loaded with battles between top-tier teams. Early Saturday afternoon, the Minnesota Golden Gophers play host to the Penn State Nittany Lions in a clash between undefeated Big Ten teams battling for positioning both in the Big Ten conference and the College Football Playoff rankings. Penn State enters this weekend ranked 4th in the first iteration of the rankings, while the committee showed Minnesota far less respect for their undefeated record, ranking them 17th in the nation. Minnesota's schedule has been a bit of a cakewalk through the first two-thirds of the season, but this weekend presents an excellent opportunity to prove their true talent against top-tier opposition. Then, heading back down south to the SEC, the number 2 and 3 teams in the nation face off when the Alabama Crimson Tide play host to the LSU Tigers in a game featuring a couple of comparatively strong offensive and weak defensive sides, relative to preseason expectations. This clash of top-flight offenses will not only have implications in the SEC and College Football Playoff rankings, but also in the Heisman race. Quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa enter this game as two mid-season frontrunners for the Heisman trophy, and a strong showing in a marquee matchup this weekend would work wonders for their respective campaigns. While all of this entertaining collegiate action is going on, let's try to make some money on the DraftKings main slate of games this weekend.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- LSU @ Alabama | Alabama -6, Total: 62.5
- Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech | Wake Forest -2, Total: 61.5
- East Carolina @ SMU | SMU -21.5, Total: 71.5
- Baylor @ TCU | Baylor -2, Total: 48
- Vanderbilt @ Florida | Florida -26.5, Total: 49
QUARTERBACK
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, $8,000
Tua Tagovailoa returns to action this weekend in what has been dubbed by some to be the "Game of the Century," when the Alabama Crimson Tide play host to the LSU Tigers. The Tigers enter the game ranked number-two in the country, while the Crimson Tide slot in at number three, according to the first iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings. While both teams are typically known as defensive stalwarts, in 2019, they are carried by uncharacteristically high-octane offenses. The total for the game sits at approximately 63 points, with Alabama checking in as a 6-point favorite. Tagovailoa missed Alabama's last game due to a high ankle sprain he sustained three weeks ago against the Tennessee Volunteers. Some may remember him being hampered in last year's College Football Playoff due to another high ankle sprain, but this is not a chronic or recurring injury that may increase worry-level, as it is his other ankle. On the season, Tagovailoa has posted at least four total touchdowns in every full-game he has played, and this weekend's clash with LSU's banged-up defense is primed for another offensive explosion for him and the Alabama offense. Expect Tua Tagovailoa to eclipse the 30-point mark on DraftKings this weekend in a high-volume and high-efficiency passing day against a potentially-overrated LSU pass defense. Tagovailoa is a strong play in all formats in week 11; however, concerns about the health of his ankle are legitimate. Given college football's general lack of quality injury reporting, the uncertainty surrounding this situation is unlikely to improve. If the worries about his mobility and health are too much to stomach in cash-games, there are other certainly formidable options at the position.
Shane Buechele, SMU, $7,700
Shane Buechele and the SMU Mustangs play host to the East Carolina Pirates this weekend after suffering their first loss of the season last weekend against the Memphis Tigers. Buechele attempted a season-high 54 passes in the game. While the offensive gameplan for the Mustangs will almost certainly include a heavier dose of run-plays this week, the projected offensive output is nearly identical. East Carolina fields one of the nation's worst defenses, ranking 106th in the nation in defensive SP+. The SMU offense is projected to total over 45 points this weekend, which gives Buechele one of the slate's highest ceilings of production. While his numbers have been inconsistent lately, there are two anomaly performances in his game log over the last month. In a mid-week trip to Houston, the entire SMU offense struggled in a way nobody had ever expected to happen. That day, Buechele mustered a just 203 passing yards and 14.52 DraftKings points overall. Then, in week 6 against Tulsa, the Mustangs tallied one defensive score and three rushing scores, leaving limited production for Buechele and the passing attack. On the day, Shane Buechele finished with 280 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 17.7 DraftKings points. This weekend, barring another anomaly from the rushing attack and other defense or special teams scores, East Carolina is unlikely to hold Buechele under 300 passing yards and 3 scores. At $7,700, this stat line would be suitable for cash games, but not tournaments. Buechele lacks rushing upside, and his passing upside has only been realized in games he has attempted 50+ passes. Still, he makes for a strong pivot away from Tua Tagovailoa in cash-games if the ankle injury is enough to scare you away.
Quincy Patterson II or Hendon Hooker, Virginia Tech, $5,900: KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AN UPDATE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS SECTION
First and foremost, the Virginia Tech quarterback situation is one that requires attention throughout the afternoon on Saturday. Their game against Wake Forest kicks off after lock at 3:30 PM ET, but the late-swap capabilities on DraftKings allow for users to update lineups after lock pending news. Hendon Hooker missed last week's game due to a knee injury, and while he does possess the dreadful red "D" designation on DraftKings, he is questionable for this week's game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Some outlets have even reported that Hooker is likely to play this weekend. Still, even if he does not, Quincy Patterson II is the likely starter at an identical price, and he is an acceptable play as well. Both Hooker and Patterson II provide significant rushing floors, which increases their respective values drastically as bargain-bin quarterback options. Across Patterson II's 1.5 games as Virginia Tech's quarterback, he attempted 40 rushes for nearly 200 yards and 1 touchdown. Over Hooker's last 2 full games as Virginia Tech's quarterbacks, he attempted over 30 rushes himself. Hendon Hooker is also the better passer of the pair, which helps compensate for his inferior rushing production.
This weekend, regardless of which quarterback ends up under-center for the Hokies, he will face off with Wake Forest's weak and relatively-untested defense. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played one of the nation's easiest schedules, yet they have still posted mediocre pass-defense numbers. On the season, Wake Forest has allowed 244 passing yards and over 2 passing touchdowns per game, both ranking near the bottom of the leaderboards amongst all power-5 defenses. Whichever quarterback starts for the Hokies will be a strong play in all formats this weekend; Quincy Patterson II's incredible rushing production along with any passing production whatsoever will almost certainly be enough for the cost this weekend. On the other hand, Hendon Hooker's inferior, but still impressive, rushing production is complemented by significantly more passing production, making him a strong cash or tournament play as well. This article will be updated to reflect any news that comes in to provide clarity regarding which quarterback will get the start for Virginia Tech. Still, whoever it is will be playable in contests of all formats.
SECONDARY OPTION
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech, $6,600
Jett Duffey and the Texas Tech Red Raiders head up to Morgantown, West Virginia this weekend as nearly three-point favorites over the West Virginia Mountaineers. Duffey's season-long production this season is far more efficient than one year ago, with a nine-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio through six games compared to an eight-to-six ratio in seven games last season. Over his last four games, Duffey has faced two sub-par opponents and two above-average opponents. In the 2 games against soft opposition, Duffey averages approximately 37 DraftKings points per game, while in the 2 tougher games, he averages about 17 points per game. This weekend, he faces off against West Virginia's horrific pass defense. The Mountaineers rank second-worst on the slate in both adjusted yards per attempt as well as attempts per first down allowed through the air. Now, Duffey and the Red Raiders enter this week 11 bout with an extra week to prepare to shred a defense that is obviously vulnerable through the air. Duffey grades as a second-tier option at the quarterback position on a slate featuring elite options both on the top and bottom shelves of the player pool. Target Jett Duffey in tournaments this weekend, where he will be a low-owned and high-upside candidate to erupt in a game against one of the nation's weakest pass defenses.
RUNNING BACK
Xavier Jones, SMU, $7,200
While quarterback Shane Buechele posted season-high passing totals last week for the SMU Mustangs in their loss to the Memphis Tigers, Xavier Jones saw his lowest-volume and lowest-yardage game of the 2019 season. It was an outlier performance from both the passing and rushing attacks, and Jones' production will almost certainly bounce back this weekend against East Carolina's horrific defense. This season, the East Carolina Pirates are allowing over 200 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game on the ground, the worst totals on the slate in both aspects. Jones has run for 15 scores this season, the 4th-most in all of FBS college football. Throughout the first 9 games of his senior season, Jones has either topped 100 yards on the ground or found the end zone in all 9. His floor of production is nearly unmatched, as he still posted 13.2 DraftKings points last week in SMU's only loss of the season, a game that he saw approximately half of his typical rushing volume. This weekend, SMU is overwhelmingly likely to win, as they are favored by over three touchdowns, which will almost certainly lead to a high-volume rushing day for Xavier Jones. At $7,200, Jones is an elite option in both cash games and tournaments this weekend. He will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but his floor and ceiling of production this weekend are nearly unmatched at the running back position.
J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State, $7,400
J.K. Dobbins and the Ohio State Buckeyes' offense has had no trouble posting impressive offensive numbers against the toughest of defenses the Big Ten has to offer this season. Now, in week 10, they play host to the Maryland Terrapins in a game they are projected to win by over 42 points. Maryland's defense is atrocious on all fronts this season, but their run defense has been especially poor against quality rushing attacks. The Terrapins have allowed nine rushing touchdowns over their last three games, and as Ohio State's bell-cow running back, J.K. Dobbins is poised to capitalize on this weakness in a big way. Dobbins has posted at least 100 rushing yards in every game against power-five competition, with at least 1 touchdown to go along with the impressive yardage totals in all but 1 outing. Dobbins averages over 20 carries per game this season against power-five opponents, and this weekend should be no different, as the Buckeyes will likely turn to another run-heavy offensive approach in an expected blowout. Dobbins' top-end price of $7,400 will not be easy to fit into lineups, but he is likely to approach 30 DraftKings points this weekend, making him one of the strongest plays on the slate. J.K. Dobbins and Xavier Jones highlight an especially impressive top-tier of running backs on the week 11 slate. Dobbins is an elite play in all formats this weekend, and he will likely be one of the most popular options at the running back position.
Lamical Perine, Florida, $5,900
Lamical Perine's rushing totals throughout the first eight games of the 2019 season have been relatively unimpressive. The Florida Gators have faced one of the nation's toughest schedules this season, and their only blowouts aside from a mid-September throttling of the Tennessee Volunteers have come against FCS opposition. This weekend, against the Vanderbilt Commodores' horrendous run defense, Perine projects an uptick in both volume and efficiency on the ground. Perine's backup, Dameon Pierce, is questionable for this weekend's game due to a head, and if he misses the game, Perine will see nearly 100-percent of the 1st-team offensive snaps. Perine is an exceptionally talented running back that has been contained by elite SEC run defenses this season. The Vanderbilt Commodores, however, field one of the nation's weakest run defenses. So far, in 2019, the Commodores are allowing over 200 rushing yards per game on approximately 5.2 yards per carry. Week 11 is an elite opportunity for Lamical Perine to register season-high carry and reception numbers, as it will be Florida's first opportunity in nearly two months to dominate a football game against a formidable opponent. Expect Perine to stay on the field this weekend and dominate the carries and touches in Florida's backfield, much like he did last week against Georgia. While his nine touches last week seem unimpressive at first, in the context of the matchup, his involvement, and playing time totals tell the story of a true number-one running back in his respective situation. Perine tripled any other running back's touches in the game, and this weekend a comparable share of the carries and receptions in Florida's backfield would likely lead to over 20 touches against a horrific Vanderbilt defense. Lamical Perine will likely be a low-owned option at running back, but at $5,900, he is one of the best value plays at the position. Perine is an acceptable cash-game play this weekend; however, he is an especially strong tournament option, where he will be contrarian way to gain exposure to an offense that is projected to score over five touchdowns.
SECONDARY OPTION
Cam Akers, Florida State, $7,800
Florida State relieved underperforming head coach Willie Taggart of his duties earlier this week, promoting associate head coach Odell Haggins to the role of interim head coach for the remainder of the year. The impact it will have on the team is unknown, but two things are known: the program fell well short of expectations with Taggart at the helm, and the last time Haggins was promoted to lead the Seminoles as the interim head coach, they rattled off 2 immediate victories by at least 39 points each. The combination of one underperforming leader and another who inspired two incredible performances in similar circumstances just two years ago leads one to believe that the Seminoles may be in for a bounceback performance in week 11 against the Boston College Golden Eagles. The Golden Eagles turned in their most impressive performance of the season last weekend, but their defensive metrics, especially against the run, remain worrying, to say the least. Boston College's up-tempo offensive attack leaves their defense on the field for over 76 plays per game, the second-most on the slate behind only the Florida State Seminoles. Boston College allows over 185 rushing yards per game on approximately 4.5 yards per carry, both wildly unimpressive numbers. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have faced one of the nation's easiest schedules- when adjusting for their soft schedule, Boston College's run defense ranks amongst the worst in the nation. Cam Akers is a true bell-cow running back for the Seminoles, averaging over 25 touches and over 1 touchdown per game against non-Clemson opponents this season. This weekend, in an up-tempo matchup against an especially poor run defense, Cam Akers should run wild in Odell Haggins' 2019 coaching debut. He will be a low-owned option this weekend thanks to the other secure top-end options on the slate. Akers is a poor cash play this week, as his similarly-priced peers offer stronger floors of production at slight discounts; however, he is an elite pivot in tournaments where he has a similar ceiling coupled with a lower expected-ownership number.
WIDE RECEIVER
Collin Johnson, Texas, $5,400
Unfathomably, after a 7-catch, 101-yard performance by Collin Johnson against TCU, one of the toughest pass-defenses on his schedule this season, the DraftKings pricing algorithm decided to decrease his price for week 11. Johnson entered the 2019 campaign with sky-high expectations following a strong 2018 season coupled with the departure of the Longhorns' leading receiver, Lil'Jordan Humphrey. While Johnson opened the season priced above $6,000, he injured his hamstring in week 2 and watched from the sidelines until week 7 against Oklahoma. Since returning to action, Johnson averages 12 targets per game and 17.3 DraftKings points per game, some of the highest marks on the entire slate at the wide receiver position. A price tag of just $5,400 for that level of involvement and production is a gross pricing error on behalf of the DraftKings pricing algorithm. In a matchup against Kansas State's average defense, Collin Johnson jumps off of the page as arguably the best cash-game option on the slate at any position. He will likely be the most-rostered wide receiver on the slate in all formats, and for good reason: his production resembles that of a $7,000 player more than it does a $5,400 player on this slate of games. There is no debate to be had here: Collin Johnson should be the first name locked into cash-game lineups on week 11's main slate of games.
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, $6,500
After posting at least 27.6 DraftKings points in 3 out of the first 4 games of the 2019 season, expectations for Jerry Jeudy's 2019 campaign sky-rocketed. Then, following a disappointing string of games in weeks 7 and 8, Jeudy's price dropped down to just $6,600 in week 9 when Mac Jones filled in for Tua Tagovailoa against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Jeudy got back on the board with a 7-catch, 103-yard, and 2-score performance, posting 32.3 DraftKings points in the process, yet somehow, his price also dropped heading into Alabama's week 11 game. Jeudy is undoubtedly one of the nation's most-talented pass-catchers, but it is tough to stand out in a crowded Crimson Tide receiving corps that features four potential first-round picks in the next two NFL Drafts. Jeudy's price is unlikely to drop this low ever again in his collegiate career, and a high-scoring matchup against LSU's defense that allowed over 400 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to the Texas Longhorns earlier this season, the only passing attack that measures anywhere close to that of the Alabama Crimson Tide, he is primed for another eruption in week 11. Jeudy's eruption last time out is also encouraging because it was with backup quarterback Mac Jones under-center. Since Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a high ankle sprain, his mobility may be limited in week 11. The offensive gameplan with a less-mobile Tua Tagovailoa will likely resemble what the Crimson Tide used with Mac Jones at the helm; the primary difference will be the arm-talent of the quarterback distributing the ball. At a surprisingly-discounted price, Jeudy will likely be one of the more popular wide receiver options on the slate. He's a great cash and tournament option this weekend, as his projections far outpace that of the typical $6,500 player, and, as he has shown this season, his ceiling is as high as any wide receiver in the nation.
C.J. Johnson, East Carolina, $5,500
As a true freshman, C.J. Johnson was eased into the East Carolina passing attack, but over the last four games, he has emerged into the team's undoubted number-one option through the air. Johnson averaged 13 targets per game of East Carolina's last four games, and this weekend's matchup with the SMU Mustangs projects to be another high-volume situation for the Pirates' passing attack. East Carolina enters the game as three-touchdown underdogs in a game projected total a slate-high 71 points between the teams. Johnson has posted at least 21.6 DraftKings points in 3 out of his last 4 outings, including 2 games of at least 33 DraftKings points. SMU's offense has been the driving force behind their impressive 7-1 start this season, as their defense is a middle-of-the-road unit at best. Against the run, they thrive, but against the pass, they grade as one of the slate's worst defenses. The Mustangs are allowing a slate-high 2.7 passing touchdowns per game this season to go along with nearly 280 yards on 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt through the air. In week 11, the East Carolina passing attack will be called upon early and often, as their run-offense is one of the least-efficient units in the nation. Look for C.J. Johnson to continue as the Pirates' number-one pass-catching option this weekend, with one of the highest projected target totals on the entire slate. At just $5,500, C.J. Johnson is a premier wide receiver option in week 11 in lineups in any style or format of contest.
Rashee Rice, SMU, $4,200
Filling in for the injured Reggie Roberson, Rashee Rice stepped up last weekend against the Memphis Tigers by hauling in 7 of his 11 targets for 122 yards and 26.2 DraftKings points. Roberson is "expected to play at some point again this season," but this phrasing certainly does not sound promising for his hopes of playing here in week 11. Assuming Roberson is sidelined once again, Rashee Rice's price of just $4,200 is far too low for his new role in the SMU Mustangs' offense. This weekend, the Mustangs' offense is expected to score over 45 points on the East Carolina Pirates' 106th-ranked defense, according to SP+. The Pirates are allowing a first down approximately once every three pass attempts this season, one of the worst marks on the slate. When adjusting for East Carolina's schedule, which has been the easiest of any team on the slate thus far this season, their pass defense measures as arguably the worst on the slate. On a slate that lacks value at the running back position, the wide receiver makes up for it with a plethora of mid-priced options listed above. Rashee Rice, on the other hand, stands out as the premier bargain-bin option on the slate. Rice's expected volume through the air in SMU's efficient offensive attack ranks him atop the list of players priced at or below $5,000 on this slate. Rice is viable in both cash games and tournaments this weekend if salary relief is needed. He will be a popular option thanks to his shockingly-high target total last weekend for a bottom-dollar receiver, but the ownership is warranted. There is no better option on the slate than Rashee Rice when digging for salary relief.
SECONDARY OPTION
Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State, $5,800
Brandon Aiyuk and the Arizona State Sun Devils' offense have been extremely inconsistent this season. While the PAC 12 does not field many top-tier teams overall, as they are unlikely to send a team to the College Football Playoff this season, they do sport a few top-end defensive units. This season, Aiyuk's two worst days have come over his last four showings, with a 1.7-point performance against the Utah Utes and a 5.1-point game against the California Golden Bears. Both teams, however, rank amongst the nation's toughest pass defenses. This weekend, against a floundering USC Trojans defense that just allowed nearly 300 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air to Oregon, Aiyuk is set up for a strong rebound after a tough stretch of games. USC's newly-installed up-tempo air raid offense has dramatically increased the number of scoring opportunities for both the Trojans and their opponents this season. This increased volume bodes well for Aiyuk, the number-one aerial target for Jayden Daniels, Arizona State's freshman quarterback. Aiyuk has led the Sun Devils in targets in five out of their eight games this season, and with his big-play ability, he can turn a good day into a great one in the blink of an eye. Aiyuk has at least one play of 40+ yards in half of the games this season, and he will have ample opportunity to add to that tally this weekend. Brandon Aiyuk's volume is less-consistent than the other top-end receiving options on the slate, making him a secondary, tournament-only option, but his ceiling is one of the highest on the slate. Against a similarly up-tempo opponent just 3 games ago, Brandon Aiyuk totaled 7 receptions for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns. While that is certainly an extreme outcome, his chances of repeating that performance are as high this week as they will be at any other point this season. Turn to Aiyuk as a viable candidate to finish off tournament lineups with a contrarian mid-$5,000 receiving option here in week 11.
