Best Ball: DRAFT ADP Risers and Fallers

Looking at DRAFT ADP and expanding on the risers and fallers from March 19 to April 2.

Tracking ADP Risers and Fallers is one way we can try to stay ahead of the field in Best Ball this offseason as we will have a better handle on ADP and where to find values as the news comes in. I will continue this process throughout the NFL offseason to help us in our Best Ball drafting leading up to the start of the season. In this report we can compare players ADP pre- Free Agency to post Free Agency as most of the Risers and Fallers are a result of landing spots by specific players.

The process in coming up with ADP Risers and Fallers is rather simple as in this example below I took ADP numbers from DRAFT on 3/19 and 4/2 and found the difference either +/-. The players who scored a lower ADP on 4/2 would be in the Risers category and the players who scored a higher ADP on 4/2 compared to 3/19 would be in the Fallers category.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. Happy Drafting!

Top 10 ADP Risers

1. Isaiah Crowell RB +65.7 ADP -- Crowell is an easy one as the biggest riser as he signed with the Raiders in a backfield that has little depth right now.

2. Mike Davis RB +61.9 ADP -- With Jordan Howard being shipped off to Philadelphia, the Bears backfield is now down to two competitive backs and Davis looks to be slotted into the Howard role which produced 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons.

3. Ryan Fitzpatrick QB +30.1 ADP -- The Dolphins may be in tank mode but signing Fitzpatrick will keep them competitive on offense as he showed last year in Tampa Bay that he can make big plays down the field.

4. Donte Moncrief WR +30.0 ADP -- Moncrief is the new receiver in Pittsburgh and will compete with James Washington as the WR2.

5. Malcolm Brown RB +27.9 ADP -- Todd Gurley continues to have question marks and the path behind him on the depth chart is Malcolm Brown.

6. Kenny Stills WR +27.2 ADP -- With the addition to Fitzpatrick at QB, the Dolphins are suddenly relevant once again and everyone on the offense is getting a boast.

7. Devin Funchess WR +23.8 ADP -- The Colts spent some big money on Funchess for a 1-year prove it deal and with Andrew Luck throwing the ball Funchess is bound to improve upon his 2018 numbers.

8. DeVante Parker WR +23.5 ADP -- Just like Stills, Parker is going to benefit from the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

9. Randall Cobb WR +20.2 ADP -- It will be interesting to see how much Cobb has left in the tank but the Cowboys gave him a 1-year contract and he will serve as the teams WR3.

10. Latavius Murray RB +20.0 ADP -- Murray continues to see a rise in ADP as the Mark Ingram II role opposite of Alvin Kamara in New Orleans is one of the most relevant roles in the league.

Risers just missing the Top 10: Adrian Peterson +19.9, Jared Cook +18.8, DeSean Jackson +17.7, Geronimo Allison +17.2, Ronald Jones +16.1, Tyler Eifert +15.6

ADP Risers

3/8 3/19 4/2
Player Team Pos ADP ADP ADP Diff
1 Isaiah Crowell OAK RB 214.7 214.6 148.9 65.7
2 Mike Davis CHI RB 215.9 152.1 90.2 61.9
3 Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA QB 216.9 200.8 170.7 30.1
4 Donte Moncrief PIT WR 217.0 154.8 124.8 30.0
5 Malcolm Brown LA RB 217.0 217.0 189.1 27.9
6 Kenny Stills MIA WR 156.8 169.3 142.1 27.2
7 Devin Funchess IND WR 213.0 125.0 101.2 23.8
8 DeVante Parker MIA WR 214.3 190.6 167.1 23.5
9 Randall Cobb DAL WR 216.5 215.1 194.9 20.2
10 Latavius Murray NO RB 154.2 81.3 61.3 20.0
11 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 176.7 152.9 133.0 19.9
12 Jared Cook NO TE 86.6 88.6 69.8 18.8
13 DeSean Jackson PHI WR 164.3 118.8 101.1 17.7
14 Geronimo Allison GB WR 153.4 152.8 135.6 17.2
15 Ronald Jones TB RB 148.3 137.6 121.5 16.1
16 Tyler Eifert CIN TE 180.2 177.5 161.9 15.6
17 Trey Quinn WAS WR 215.9 210.0 196.8 13.2
18 Jesse James DET TE 216.2 174.1 161.0 13.1
19 Matt LaCosse NE TE 217.0 216.9 204.6 12.3
20 Peyton Barber TB RB 177.4 162.6 152.1 10.5
21 Sammy Watkins KC WR 79.4 75.5 65.3 10.2
22 Jordan Howard PHI RB 71.1 81.6 71.5 10.1
23 Jack Doyle IND TE 147.3 152.0 142.4 9.6
24 Demarcus Robinson KC WR 217.0 216.1 207.0 9.1
25 Phillip Dorsett NE WR 217.0 212.9 203.9 9.0
26 Delanie Walker TEN TE 140.1 141.6 132.7 8.9
27 Jamaal Williams GB RB 152.2 150.5 141.9 8.6
28 Carlos Hyde KC RB 181.6 93.1 84.7 8.4
29 Vance McDonald PIT TE 102.3 83.6 75.3 8.3
30 Austin Hooper ATL TE 99.3 103.2 96.0 7.2

Now let's dive into some of the ADP Fallers over the past 2 weeks. A lot of the names on this list are in regards to free agents not being signed yet or others that were directly effected by others signing.

Top 10 ADP FALLERS

1. Rob Gronkowski TE -116.6 ADP -- Gronkowski finally announced his retirement after rumors of it have been surfacing over the past two seasons.

2. TJ Yeldon RB -43.1ADP -- This one is a surprising no signing in FA. Yeldon looked to be a nice running back on paper but with no bites in free agency it makes you think there might be more to the story on him not receiving a contract.

3. CJ Anderson RB -41.0 ADP -- Now with the Lions signing him we will see Anderson's ADP start to slowly go in the other direction.

4. Gus Edwards RB -37.7 ADP -- The Mark Ingram II news has shook up the entire Ravens backfield as far as ADP goes. Giving Ingram big money makes for alot of question marks for Edwards and Dixon behind him now in Baltimore.

5. Zay Jones WR -28.4 ADP -- John Brown and Cole Beasley news continue to lower the ADP on both Zay Jones and Robert Foster.

6. Robert Foster WR -23.6 ADP -- Foster might lose some snaps now with the crowded WR corps in Buffalo but he could still have some appeal in the late rounds.

7. Antonio Callaway WR -22.4 ADP -- The Browns are now crowded with talent on offense and Callaway is now buried on the depth chart.

8. Jerick McKinnon RB -19.6 ADP -- The 49ers backfield is crowded right now and with McKinnon still recovering from his ACL injury the risk is too great right now to take a high draft pick on him.

9. Jay Ajayi RB -17.3 ADP -- As of today, Ajayi remains unsigned and if that remains the case going forward his ADP will continue to take a dip.

10. Doug Baldwin WR -16.4 ADP -- The news of Baldwin being banged up and require additional surgeries has people scared off at the moment.

Fallers that just missed the Top 10: Tyreek Hill -12.3, Adam Humphries -11.4, Elijah McGuire -11.4, James Washington -10.3, Kenneth Dixon -10.3, Chris Warren -9.2, Joe Flacco -8.8

ADP Fallers

3/8 3/19 4/2
Player Team Pos ADP ADP ADP Diff
1 Rob Gronkowski TE 97.1 96.5 213.1 -116.6
2 TJ Yeldon RB 141.7 153.2 196.3 -43.1
3 CJ Anderson DET RB 124.2 134.0 175.0 -41.0
4 Gus Edwards BAL RB 96.1 130.3 168.0 -37.7
5 Zay Jones BUF WR 116.6 137.5 165.9 -28.4
6 Robert Foster BUF WR 142.7 171.9 195.5 -23.6
7 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 124.5 153.1 175.5 -22.4
8 Jerick McKinnon SF RB 45.0 60.8 80.4 -19.6
9 Jay Ajayi RB 140.2 153.8 171.1 -17.3
10 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 67.2 73.7 90.1 -16.4
11 Tyreek Hill KC WR 8.9 16.1 28.4 -12.3
12 Adam Humphries TEN WR 144.2 139.5 150.9 -11.4
13 Elijah McGuire NYJ RB 140.8 192.9 204.3 -11.4
14 James Washington PIT WR 93.2 96.3 106.6 -10.3
15 Kenneth Dixon BAL RB 151.4 199.8 210.1 -10.3
16 Chris Warren OAK RB 206.7 201.9 211.1 -9.2
17 Joe Flacco DEN QB 198.8 195.1 203.9 -8.8
18 Josh Adams PHI RB 208.2 206.8 215.6 -8.8
19 Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR 171.9 189.6 198.3 -8.7
20 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 132.8 136.8 145.0 -8.2
21 Michael Gallup DAL WR 125.3 133.0 141.1 -8.1
22 Andy Dalton CIN QB 167.7 179.7 187.7 -8.0
23 Nick Foles JAC QB 168.9 166.6 174.2 -7.6
24 Spencer Ware RB 173.8 207.9 215.0 -7.1
25 Kareem Hunt CLE RB 82.1 83.1 89.4 -6.3
26 Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 77.6 85.9 91.8 -5.9
27 David Njoku CLE TE 66.4 68.7 73.9 -5.2
28 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 77.1 78.7 83.9 -5.2
29 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 112.8 111.1 116.3 -5.2
30 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB 87.8 87.5 92.6 -5.1