Tracking ADP Risers and Fallers is one way we can try to stay ahead of the field in Best Ball this offseason as we will have a better handle on ADP and where to find values as the news comes in. I will continue this process throughout the NFL offseason to help us in our Best Ball drafting leading up to the start of the season. In this report we can compare players ADP pre- Free Agency to post Free Agency as most of the Risers and Fallers are a result of landing spots by specific players.
The process in coming up with ADP Risers and Fallers is rather simple as in this example below I took ADP numbers from DRAFT on 3/8 and 3/19 and found the difference either +/-. The players who scored a lower ADP on 3/19 would be in the Risers category and the players who scored a higher ADP on 3/19 compared to 3/8 would be in the Fallers category.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. Happy Drafting!
Top 10 ADP Risers
1. Carlos Hyde RB +88.5 ADP -- Before the Chiefs picked up Hyde he was going at the end of drafts as an after thought and now that he is on the most explosive offense in the league his ADP has shot up 7+ rounds.
2. Devin Funchess WR +88.0 ADP -- Funchess was another player that was left for dead at the end of drafts and now that he landed with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis his ADP is also up 7+ rounds as he makes for a nice end of roster buy in best ball leagues.
3. Latavius Murray RB +72.9 ADP -- Much like Hyde and Funchess, Murray also found himself in the perfect landing spot in New Orleans in the Mark Ingram II role. Murray was being underdrafted before the signing regardless of where he signed and now you are going to have to almost overdraft him if you want to have ownership in best ball.
4. Mike Davis RB +63.8 ADP -- This one is interesting as Jordan Howard is still sitting on the Bears roster so the big jump in Davis' ADP is assuming that the Bears will move on from Howard. Next to Cohen in this offense, Davis would be a solid RB4 or RB5 on any best ball team.
5. Donte Moncrief WR +62.2 ADP -- With the exit of Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, the passing offense is wide open behind JuJu Smith-Schuster so it makes sense that a minor signing such as Moncrief would give him a big boost in ADP. The job for the WR2 spot on Pittsburgh is wide open now with both James Washington and Donte Moncrief set to battle it out.
6. DeSean Jackson WR +45.5 ADP -- The rumors of Jackson returning to Philadelphia have been in full swing since last season, and now the hype is pointing to Jackson being the missing piece for Carson Wentz down the field. Jackson's ADP rose nearly 4 rounds with this signing and could continue to rise a couple of more rounds as the hype builds.
7. Jesse James TE +42.1 ADP -- Jesse James was second fiddle to Vance McDonald last year and now he goes to Detroit on a big money deal. The tight end position is already hard to predict in general and adding a name like James to the player pool for an increase in usage is the reason why his ADP went up.
8. Derek Carr QB +33.7 ADP -- This rise is because of the additions to Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams and the fact that the Raiders have plenty of ammo to add even more weapons on offense in the upcoming draft. Carr's ADP was extremely low before the trade for Brown but now he makes a nice QB3 or a QB2 option if you have one of the top QB's.
9. Jamison Crowder WR +30.3 ADP -- Crowder was one of my favorite late round targets before he signed on with the Jets. Now with his role with the Jets and a rise in ADP I will be careful with my exposure but will still consider him as a solid option in a WR6+ type of role on my teams.
10. Adrian Peterson RB +23.8 ADP -- Interesting that Peterson cracked the top 10 for risers as he signed on to stay with Washington in a backup role. Peterson showed last year that he still has some gas left in the tank but with a healthy Guice in front of him any more of an ADP rise would have to be a big avoid for me.
|Mark Ingram II||BAL||RB||54.0||40.6||13.4|
|Odell Beckham Jr||CLE||WR||21.2||14.0||7.2|
Now let's dive into some of the ADP Fallers over the past 2 weeks. Interesting fact that 15 out of the top 30 fallers were all quarterbacks last time I ran this report, and now this time around only 4 out of the 30 are quarterbacks. It was both the running back and wide receiver positions that all took big hits over the past couple of weeks.
Top 10 ADP FALLERS
1. Elijah McGuire RB -52.1 ADP -- No escaping this fall for McGuire as Le'Veon Bell is coming to town and going to demand 20+ touches per game. McGuire is now reduced to a handcuff type of play now, which doesn't work so well for best ball.
2. Kenneth Dixon RB -48.4 ADP -- Before Mark Ingram II signed you were taking late round stabs at both Dixon and Edwards in the Baltimore backfield. Now that Ingram is in town it is an avoid situation for both Dixon and Edwards in best ball.
3. Gus Edwards RB -34.2 ADP -- Edwards ADP was sky high before the Ingram news so I expect his ADP to continue to slid down to the point where he is almost undraftable.
4. Spencer Ware RB -34.1 ADP -- Ware is still on the market with no suitors yet, but once a team signs him and his name is in the news his stock will start to slid the other way.
5. Robert Foster WR -29.2 ADP -- The Bills wide receiver depth chart is now crowded but this slide down for Foster might not be justified. He still has plenty of upside as a last round pick in the best ball format.
6. Antonio Callaway WR -28.6 ADP -- With the Beckham shocking trade, Callaway's value took a big hit. It will be hard to click on Callaway's name now with so many big names in front of him on the depth chart.
7. Matt Breida RB -23.9 ADP -- The 49ers are a true RBBC right now and trying to guess how this 4-RB deep backfield is going to break is a cause for a headache. Breida has plenty of talent and was one of the lone bright spots for the 49ers last season. Bet on Breida's talent and having him as your best ball RB5 at a discount now might make a lot of sense.
8. Zay Jones WR -20.9 ADP -- Zay Jones took a big hit with the John Brown and Cole Beasley signings but entering his third season he could still have some late round appeal as he is coming off a 56/652/7 season.
9. Nelson Agholor WR -18.1 RB ADP -- The decline in Agholor's ADP is a combination of the DeSean Jackson signing and the fact that people are scared that he could either be cut or traded with all the recent rumors of his large contract. The fact is both could actually help him as Jackson will help open things up and if he did get traded or landed with a new team he would still be one of that teams top targets.
10. Quincy Enunwa WR -17.7 ADP -- Coming off a season where he only caught 1 touchdown and now Jameson Crowder taking over his role, Enunwa will likely continue to slide down the draft boards.
|Duke Johnson Jr||CLE||RB||153.5||164.7||-11.2|
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