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Best Ball: DRAFT ADP Risers and Fallers

Looking at DRAFT ADP and expanding on the risers and fallers from February 27 to March 8.

I posted my Best Ball DRAFT Cheat Sheet article which can be found here. Now I want to take the process a step further and look at some of the players that have been ADP Risers and ADP Fallers over the past couple of weeks. I will continue this process throughout the NFL offseason to help us in our Best Ball drafting leading up to the start of the season.

The process in coming up with ADP Risers and Fallers is rather simple as in this example below I took ADP numbers from DRAFT on 2/27 and 3/8 and found the difference either +/-. The players who scored a lower ADP on 3/8 would be in the Risers category and the players who scored a higher ADP on 3/8 compared to 2/27 would be in the Fallers category.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. Happy Drafting!

Top 10 ADP Risers

1. Ito Smith RB +26.3 ADP -- This is a huge ADP increase of almost 2.5 rounds for Smith. With Tevin Coleman leaving to free agency and Devonta Freeman coming back from injury it makes sense to see second-year Smith on the rise. He scored four touchdowns on 90 carries last year and should see a big increase in volume in 2019.

2. Peyton Barber RB +19.0 ADP -- This one is a bit surprising as Barber is unlikely to end up back in Tampa Bay as he is a free agent. Not knowing where Barber will end up and thinking he will be part of an RBBC it is hard to push for an increase ADP buy right now. Although he did post 871 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns last season on the ground.

3. Carlos Hyde RB +18.4 ADP -- Hyde is going super late in drafts right now and with the recent news of Jacksonville letting him walk, he will be looking for a new home. Depending on where he lands in free agency he could be a nice late-round buy.

4. Jamaal Williams RB +13.6 ADP -- Aaron Jones is the guy right now but Green Bay hasn't fully committed to a lead back, and all the talk is that they will continue to have an RBBC.

5. Quincy Enunwa WR +12.3 ADP -- At times last year when healthy Enunwa looked like quarterback Sam Darnold's favorite target. At such a low cost and lack of skill players in for the Jets right now, it is worth taking some late round shots at Enunwa.

6. Nick Foles QB +12.2 ADP -- Foles is the rare quarterback that actually had his ADP as a riser. We knew all along that Foles was going to get a shot to be a starter but now that the dust is settling and it looks as if he will end up in Jacksonville he is getting viewed as a starter and forcing his late-round ADP price to rise.

7. Ronald Jones RB +10.4 ADP -- This one is a head scratcher also but the rise in ADP might be more of lack of depth in Tampa Bay right now. Peyton Barber is set to walk and Jones was a high draft pick last year and surely should be given a bigger role this year.

8. Curtis Samuel WR +10.0 ADP -- Samuel finally stayed healthy and found the field in 2018 and showed some big-play potential with seven touchdowns (2 rushing, 5 receiving), now with Devin Funchess set to walk it will be DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel as the main targets in Carolina so Samuel is a buy at his current mid-round ADP.

9. Dede Westbrook WR +9.4 ADP -- The Jaguars wide receiver core might be the hardest squad to predict out of all the teams. We know that Nick Foles will be the quarterback in Jacksonville and that he likes to take shots down the field. Westbrook is now entering year three and is coming off a solid 66/718/5 season when the Jaguars team was free falling. His ADP should continue to rise as the modest hype in Jacksonville builds.

10. Jaylen Samuels RB +8.7 ADP -- Samuels showed at the end of the season that he could handle a full load of work and now will be playing side by side with James Connor to open the season. Samuels should be looking at 8-12 touches a game and if Connor were to ever go down he would be plugged in as the starter with ease.

Risers just missing the Top 10: Gus Edwards +8.5, Jamison Crowder +8.5, Dallas Goedert +8.3, Vance McDonald +8.3, Tyler Eifert +7.8, Tyrell Williams +7.6

ADP Risers

Player
Team
PosRank
2/27 ADP
3/8 ADP
Diff
PHI
QB25
181.1
168.9
12.2
ATL
RB40
132.1
105.8
26.3
TB
RB58
196.4
177.4
19.0
JAC
RB59
200.0
181.6
18.4
GB
RB52
165.8
152.2
13.6
Ronald Jones
TB
RB50
158.7
148.3
10.4
PIT
RB34
96.5
87.8
8.7
BAL
RB38
104.6
96.1
8.5
MIN
RB54
160.6
154.2
6.4
LA
RB43
130.6
124.2
6.4
CLE
RB53
158.7
153.5
5.2
NYJ
WR64
184.2
171.9
12.3
CAR
WR47
134.4
124.4
10.0
JAC
WR44
122.2
112.8
9.4
WAS
WR67
200.2
191.7
8.5
LAC
WR50
135.1
127.5
7.6
SF
WR37
93.2
86.8
6.4
BAL
WR57
161.3
155.0
6.3
n/a
WR66
185.7
180.0
5.7
MIA
WR55
151.4
146.5
4.9
CAR
WR29
74.3
69.8
4.5
PHI
TE16
132.8
124.5
8.3
PIT
TE12
110.6
102.3
8.3
CIN
TE23
188.0
180.2
7.8

Now let's dive into some of the ADP Fallers over the past 2 weeks. Interesting fact that 15 out of the top 30 fallers were all quarterbacks as drafters are starting to shift more to wait for your quarterback approach.

Top 10 ADP FALLERS

1. Blake Jarwin TE -27.1 ADP -- Crazy to think that the Jason Witten un-retiring news affected Jarwin's ADP so much but it looks like it might have. Jarwin had one big game last year in Week 17 were he scored three touchdowns. I don't mind taking Jarwin as part of a three TE committee and the last pick in the draft but I can't justify pulling the trigger on him in any other circumstance.

2. Elijah McGuire RB -19.3 ADP -- The Jets backfield is still somewhat in limbo as to knowing who will be on the team. What we do know is that McGuire will be on the team and in 8 games last season he had a total of 469 yards and 4 touchdowns.

3. Josh Rosen QB -13.6 ADP -- With Arizona having the first overall pick it is tricky to know what to do with Rosen right now as all the draft day rumors have the Cardinals drafting Kyler Murray. Rosen is in limbo right now as he will either be the Cardinals starting quarterback or will be dealt to another team but it is something you have to wait until draft day to know the answer.

4. Kareem Hunt RB -11.0 ADP -- Before Hunt ended up in Cleveland his ADP was already somewhat out of control as others were speculating a better landing spot. With a six-game suspension likely, it is still hard to pull the trigger on Hunt at his current ADP.

5. Tom Brady QB -9.3 ADP -- With the quarterback position being one that is so deep and with little uncertainty at the position it makes sense to see all the quarterback's ADPs drop. Brady usually always starts the year at a higher ADP based on his namesake alone but now with age and with the Patriots pushing a rushing attack the value of Brady is quickly decreasing.

6. DeSean Jackson WR -8.4 ADP -- Jackson seems to keep going and going year after year but now that he is likely out of Tampa Bay and his future team and situation looks to be up in the air it is hard to even take late round shots on him. There are a lot of other wide receivers around his ADP that are just more appealing. Jackson is coming off a 41/774/4 season and might still have some best ball appeal when it comes to a spike game or two.

7. Daesean Hamilton WR -7.8 ADP -- The hope for Hamilton was that Sanders would be no longer with the Broncos. Well, Sanders will be back so Hamilton's ADP took a hit based on this news alone. Hamilton still should have some value as a late round guy as he is entering his second season and has an upgrade at quarterback in Joe Flacco.

8. Robert Foster WR -7.8 ADP -- In 13 games last year Foster caught 27/541/3 and went for a stat line of 19/285/2 over his last four games. He developed some rapport with Josh Allen to end the season and looks to be the only reliable pass catcher next to Zay Jones right now in Buffalo so his fall in ADP is somewhat surprising here.

9. Jay Ajayi R -7.6 RB ADP -- You are paying for Ajayi right now based on his name. Coming off an ACL injury and being a free agent makes me scared of Ajayi now, and apparently, others are starting to feel the same way as his ADP has fallen 7.6 spots over the last two weeks.

10. Philip Rivers QB -7.1 ADP -- This fall in ADP is based on position alone as the quarterback position, in general, was being over drafted. Rivers should be set to have another solid season so nothing to read into with his ADP fall here other than the lack of demand for drafting the position at a higher ADP.

Fallers that just missed the Top 10: Kenneth Dixon -6.4, Jordan Howard -6.4, Lamar Jackson -6.2, Josh Allen -6.2, Deshaun Watson -6.0, Dontrelle Inman -5.8

ADP Fallers

Player
Team
PosRank
2/27 ADP
3/8 ADP
Diff
ARI
QB29
195.1
208.7
13.6
NE
QB21
121.1
130.4
9.3
LAC
QB16
113.4
120.5
7.1
BAL
QB13
107.7
113.9
6.2
BUF
QB15
110.2
116.4
6.2
HOU
QB4
62.1
68.1
6.0
CIN
QB24
162.2
167.7
5.5
OAK
QB26
183.4
187.9
4.5
NYJ
RB48
121.5
140.8
19.3
CLE
RB33
71.1
82.1
11.0
PHI
RB47
132.6
140.2
7.6
BAL
RB51
145.0
151.4
6.4
CHI
RB31
64.7
71.1
6.4
WAS
RB55
154.8
159.9
5.1
TB
WR61
155.9
164.3
8.4
DEN
WR65
168.1
175.9
7.8
BUF
WR52
134.9
142.7
7.8
IND
WR74
206.0
211.8
5.8
GB
WR62
161.2
166.5
5.3
CLE
WR48
120.3
124.5
4.2
DAL
TE28
177.0
204.1
27.1
TB
TE31
207.2
210.9
3.7
MIN
TE14
110.4
113.9
3.5
CAR
TE24
178.2
181.5
3.3
LA
TE26
191.6
194.9
3.3
NE
TE10
93.8
97.1
3.3