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On DRAFT, we have 18 picks and need those 18 players to fill 8 spots in our lineup every week (1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 1 flex).
When building our DRAFT best ball rosters, we don’t have to take a rigid, one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, we want to approach each draft with an open mind and enough flexibility to take advantage of wherever we can find the most value.
While maintaining some flexibility is important, some lineup builds have proven most likely to lead to success. There are also some common sense minimums for each position that we should try to meet in all but the most extreme cases.
Note: This article is targeted specifically to DRAFT but is applicable to best ball drafting on other sites as well. In Bestball10s, we have 20 picks but need to roster two defenses, so the roster math is identical.
Roster building basics: 16+2
With the dual goals of maintaining draft flexibility and putting together a lineup built with the optimal positional totals, an approach we will call 16+2is a great rule of thumb. The optimal lineup build should hit the following minimum positional numbers:
- Quarterback: 2
- Running Back 5
- Wide Receiver: 7
- Tight End 2
Below, we will go through position-by-position below to detail why these minimums make sense.
You may notice the positional targets above add up to 16, which leaves us with two “free agent” picks. There is always a temptation to try to figure out the best roster construction and stick to it no matter what. However, the roster guidelines listed above are vague on purpose. We want to maintain flexibility in our approach for two main reasons:
1. We need to adjust our approach to account for draft capital spent. We should be adjusting our late-round strategy and positional targets to account for how we have drafted in the earlier rounds. What do we mean when we talk about draft capital?
Let’s look at tight end as an example. We know we want at least two but deciding whether or not to take a third is tricky. We should strongly consider how early we selected our first two tight ends when deciding how much of a priority adding a third tight end with one of our two “free agent” picks is. If we have drafted Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper as our first two tight ends, we already have a ton of upside and a very high floor at the position. There should be better uses of our two free agent selections and we can stick with just two. On the other hand, if we have waited until round 10 or later to select our TE1, then the tight end position will be a prime candidate for one of our free agent selections and we should try to get three at the position as long as the board falls in a way that we don’t have to make a major reach to do so.
The draft capital calculus is similar at other positions. If we have a Top-10 quarterback and drafted at Top-20 quarterback as our QB2, there are probably better uses for our free agent picks than adding a third quarterback. If we have gone especially heavy on either running back or wide receiver early in the draft, that should allow us the opportunity to use our free agent picks to bolster other areas.
2. We need to adjust our approach to allow for best-player-available. Given our roster, we may decide using one of our late-round picks on a TE3 would be a better idea than targeting an eighth wide receiver. However, if all of the decent TE3 options are gone when our pick rolls around and there are still some high-upside wide receivers available, we want to default to just taking the best player available. Always keep in mind that simply drafting good players trumps all else. We may feel that a 2-6-8-2 lineup build is our optimal configuration but we still have to have enough flexibility to detour slightly from our plan to try to capture as much value as we can depending upon how others are drafting
With the basics of our approach in mind, let’s dive into the positional specifics.
Quarterback: 2-3
Targeting at least two quarterbacks is a no-brainer. There is no good reason to take a zero at the position when our starter is on bye. Plus, the position is deep enough that we should be able to get a QB2 who will have at least a couple weeks better than our starter that will boost our total score.
The only real question is whether to target two or three quarterbacks. The best answer — it depends. We should adjust our strategy depending on who our QB1 and QB2 are. In most cases, especially in tournaments, we probably do not want to draft a QB3. Assuming we have drafted a pair of solid starters, a third quarterback is not necessary to build a solid floor at the position. A third quarterback also does little to move the needle in terms of upside.
Let’s take a close look at the 2018 results and dive into when it makes sense to draft three quarterbacks.
Building a Floor at QB
On average, the QB15 each week in 2018 (Weeks 1-16) posted a score of 17.8 DRAFT points. We can use this number as our baseline weekly minimum-scoring target and consider those good fantasy weeks. We will also take a look at how many times each quarterback posted a score of at least 15 points, which we will call “solid” production for that given week.
Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
R+ (weeks with 17.8 or more)
|
Usable (weeks of 15+)
|
1
|
KCC
|
15
|
15
|
|
2
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
PIT
|
12
|
13
|
3
|
ATL
|
11
|
11
|
|
4
|
Andrew Luck
|
IND
|
11
|
11
|
5
|
Cam Newton
|
CAR
|
11
|
12
|
6
|
Russell Wilson
|
SEA
|
11
|
13
|
7
|
Deshaun Watson
|
HOU
|
10
|
11
|
8
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
GBP
|
9
|
13
|
9
|
Philip Rivers
|
LAC
|
9
|
13
|
10
|
MIN
|
8
|
10
|
|
11
|
Carson Wentz
|
PHI
|
8
|
8
|
12
|
NOS
|
7
|
10
|
|
13
|
Jared Goff
|
LAR
|
7
|
11
|
14
|
Tom Brady
|
NEP
|
7
|
10
|
15
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
CHI
|
6
|
7
|
16
|
Baker Mayfield
|
CLE
|
6
|
8
|
17
|
Dak Prescott
|
DAL
|
6
|
8
|
18
|
Eli Manning
|
NYG
|
6
|
7
|
19
|
TBB
|
5
|
6
|
|
20
|
TBB
|
5
|
6
|
|
21
|
CIN
|
5
|
7
|
|
22
|
Josh Allen
|
BUF
|
5
|
5
|
23
|
Blake Bortles
|
JAC
|
5
|
5
|
24
|
Joe Flacco
|
BAL
|
4
|
5
|
25
|
OAK
|
4
|
7
|
The first thing that jumps out is how many good (17.8+) and solid (15+) weeks the top quarterbacks had. Patrick Mahomes II put up at least 17.8 points every single game last year. You would have only needed your QB2 to cover for his bye week to have hit the minimum target every single week over the 16-week fantasy season. Six other quarterbacks put up 17.8 points or more in at least 10 of their 15 outings. Plus, Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to hit this total 13 times for the Buccaneers.
The other nice thing about the quarterback position is that even when the top guys don’t quite hit 17.8 points, they usually don’t miss it by much. If we lower our weekly minimum target to 15 points, we see that 13 quarterbacks managed to hit this mark at least 10 times. The top-12 quarterbacks averaged 11.7 good fantasy weeks (not counting Week 17). In short, if you make even an average QB1 selection, you should have most of your weeks covered with solid starting production.
When we also include a QB2, we can feel really good about our weekly floor at the position. The average QB2 in during the 2018 fantasy season produced 7.1 weeks of at least 15 fantasy points. You can build a floor at the position which should allow you to score at least 15 points almost every single week with just two quarterbacks.
Upside at Quarterback
Overall Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Value+
|
13
|
KCC
|
142.7
|
|
36
|
ATL
|
87.2
|
|
38
|
NOS
|
86.5
|
|
41
|
Deshaun Watson
|
HOU
|
83.6
|
42
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
PIT
|
83.5
|
50
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
CHI
|
74.3
|
51
|
Andrew Luck
|
IND
|
73.6
|
54
|
Jared Goff
|
LAR
|
70.6
|
58
|
Cam Newton
|
CAR
|
64.4
|
61
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
GBP
|
61.6
|
71
|
TBB
|
57.0
|
|
81
|
Russell Wilson
|
SEA
|
51.5
|
84
|
MIN
|
50.0
|
|
111
|
Tom Brady
|
NEP
|
38.5
|
112
|
Philip Rivers
|
LAC
|
38.5
|
116
|
Dak Prescott
|
DAL
|
36.8
|
118
|
Blake Bortles
|
JAC
|
35.8
|
125
|
Josh Allen
|
BUF
|
34.9
|
132
|
OAK
|
32.1
|
|
134
|
TBB
|
31.7
|
|
146
|
Carson Wentz
|
PHI
|
28.0
|
155
|
Baker Mayfield
|
CLE
|
25.5
|
173
|
CIN
|
21.0
|
|
195
|
Sam Darnold
|
NYJ
|
14.9
|
197
|
Eli Manning
|
NYG
|
14.6
|
We know we don’t need to draft a QB3 to lock in a solid floor at the position, so the next line of inquiry is how much a QB3 adds to our upside. I picked a number of random QB1-QB2 pairings from last season and checked to see how many total points would have been added when various third quarterbacks were added to the mix.
In testing dozens of combinations of two and three quarterback pairings, the addition of a third quarterback to the mix added anywhere from 0 to 40 points. On the low end, Andy Dalton only added 8.4 points to the season scoring total when added as the QB3 behind Mitch Trubisky and Kirk Cousins. On the high end, Derek Carr’s big weeks coincided perfectly with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan’s bad weeks and he added 39.2 points to the season total as the QB3.
In most cases, drafting a third quarterback will add modestly to season-long point totals. It is not a bad use of a late-round pick. However, to roster a QB3, you are passing out on the smaller chance for much higher upside at another position. A mid-to-late round QB3 is not going to be nearly as impactful as a big-play wide receiver who posts a few big weeks (Desean Jackson), a backup running back who lands a featured role at some point during the season (Nick Chubb), or a tight end who has a breakout season (Jared Cook).
Running Back: 5-6
There isn’t a more impactful player in the best ball format than an elite running back. After adjusting for replacement level production at each position, the five most valuable best ball performers on DRAFT last season were running backs Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elliott. It isn’t a surprise to see four of the five now going off the board at the top of the first round and only injury concerns are keeping Gurley from being a high first-rounder as well.
Considering injuries, bye weeks, and the uncertainty surrounding many backfields, it is a good idea to draft at least five running backs to ensure solid weekly production from the position. Loading up at running back is also prudent because it is the position where even later round picks can have serious upside. Especially in bigger tournaments where you want to build in as much upside as possible, using one of our free-agent picks to draft a sixth running back is an attractive, high upside option.
Overall Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Value +
|
Weeks
|
1
|
LAR
|
237.8
|
13
|
|
2
|
CAR
|
215.0
|
15
|
|
3
|
NYG
|
205.6
|
15
|
|
4
|
NOS
|
203.3
|
14
|
|
5
|
DAL
|
180.4
|
14
|
|
8
|
Melvin Gordon
|
LAC
|
159.9
|
11
|
10
|
PIT
|
151.6
|
12
|
|
18
|
Kareem Hunt
|
CLE
|
137.3
|
10
|
20
|
Joe Mixon
|
CIN
|
114.1
|
12
|
21
|
James White
|
NEP
|
113.1
|
12
|
29
|
David Johnson
|
ARI
|
100.7
|
14
|
30
|
DEN
|
100.2
|
12
|
|
33
|
CLE
|
99.7
|
10
|
|
34
|
Tarik Cohen
|
CHI
|
95.9
|
10
|
35
|
Derrick Henry
|
TEN
|
93.7
|
7
|
40
|
Chris Carson
|
SEA
|
84.8
|
9
|
44
|
GBP
|
81.4
|
7
|
|
45
|
WAS
|
79.7
|
10
|
|
46
|
IND
|
77.6
|
8
|
|
52
|
Kenyan Drake
|
MIA
|
73.5
|
9
|
56
|
Tevin Coleman
|
ATL
|
67.9
|
11
|
59
|
Matt Breida
|
SFO
|
64.2
|
8
|
62
|
Dalvin Cook
|
MIN
|
61.5
|
8
|
64
|
Lamar Miller
|
HOU
|
61.0
|
10
|
67
|
Sony Michel
|
NEP
|
58.9
|
5
|
68
|
T.J. Yeldon
|
JAC
|
58.3
|
10
|
74
|
Isaiah Crowell
|
NYJ
|
55.8
|
5
|
76
|
Leonard Fournette
|
JAC
|
55.8
|
5
|
77
|
Mark Ingram
|
NOS
|
55.6
|
8
|
78
|
Austin Ekeler
|
LAC
|
52.3
|
8
|
79
|
Kerryon Johnson
|
DET
|
52.3
|
8
|
82
|
Jordan Howard
|
CHI
|
51.0
|
10
|
86
|
Latavius Murray
|
MIN
|
48.1
|
5
|
93
|
Mike Davis
|
SEA
|
46.0
|
5
|
98
|
Peyton Barber
|
TBB
|
43.8
|
6
|
100
|
Damien Williams
|
KCC
|
43.3
|
3
|
108
|
Dion Lewis
|
TEN
|
39.9
|
7
|
121
|
Wendell Smallwood
|
PHI
|
35.5
|
4
|
126
|
Duke Johnson
|
CLE
|
34.3
|
5
|
128
|
Carlos Hyde
|
JAC
|
33.2
|
5
|
130
|
Nyheim Hines
|
IND
|
32.7
|
7
|
133
|
LeSean McCoy
|
BUF
|
31.7
|
6
|
139
|
Gus Edwards
|
BAL
|
29.4
|
5
|
141
|
Jamaal Williams
|
GBP
|
29.1
|
4
|
142
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
OAK
|
29.0
|
4
|
143
|
Alex Collins
|
BAL
|
28.8
|
7
|
144
|
Elijah McGuire
|
NYJ
|
28.6
|
4
|
147
|
Jaylen Samuels
|
PIT
|
27.7
|
5
|
148
|
Doug Martin
|
OAK
|
27.3
|
6
|
150
|
Jalen Richard
|
OAK
|
26.5
|
10
|
152
|
Giovani Bernard
|
CIN
|
25.8
|
3
|
154
|
LeGarrette Blount
|
DET
|
25.5
|
3
|
158
|
Chris Thompson
|
WAS
|
24.3
|
3
|
167
|
Corey Clement
|
PHI
|
22.4
|
5
|
171
|
Javorius Allen
|
BAL
|
21.3
|
5
|
178
|
Frank Gore
|
MIA
|
19.1
|
5
|
182
|
Josh Adams
|
PHI
|
18.4
|
4
|
183
|
Spencer Ware
|
KCC
|
17.9
|
5
|
192
|
Royce Freeman
|
DEN
|
15.5
|
5
|
Building a Floor at Running Back
With the running back position also heavily impacting scoring at the flex position, we used the weekly average of the RB32 to determine replacement-level production (7.5 points). The good news is that 18 running backs hit this benchmark at least 10 times. Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey topped this total in every single game they played last season. Building a solid weekly floor at running back is not as difficult as one might think if you can land at least one legitimate RB1 early in the draft. If you start RB-RB, it isn’t unrealistic to think you can cover 75% of your RB1 and RB2 starts for the entire season. You do not need to draft six or seven running backs to give yourself a strong weekly floor as long as you have drafted the right guys.
Upside at Running Back
The biggest reason to target at least five running backs is the unmatched upside in the later rounds if one of your picks hits. Running back is the one position where we regularly see later round picks have huge seasons. For example, James Conner was one of the most valuable players on DRAFT last season and was available in the final rounds for almost the entire offseason.
Phillip Lindsay, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Adrian Peterson, and Marlon Mack each put up at least 75 points above replacement level last season and were also available in the 9th-round or later for much or all of the offseason. At wide receiver, only two late-rounders achieved that type of production (Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley) and neither were nearly as impactful as Conner.
Due to the outsized impact of the elite backs and the unmatched upside available later in the draft, we want to draft running backs early and often to maximize our chances of putting up big weekly scores at the position. Late-round running back picks are especially attractive in bigger tournaments. In this format, you are looking to build a top 0.1% type of team. One of the easiest ways to do so is to hit on your early picks and also strike gold with a late-round running back.
Wide Receiver: 7-8
It is hard to build either a consistent floor or significant upside at the wide receiver without at least one legitimate WR1 and history has shown those players are almost always drafted near the top of the draft. The top wide receivers also boast impressive consistency and make it easy to build a floor at the position.
Compared to other positions, it is much harder to hit a home run in the later rounds at wide receiver. A realistic goal for these late-round picks is to land a player capable of at least a few big weeks that will boost your total team scoring by 30-60 points overall. Due to the depth at the position, this is not too difficult to achieve, which makes wide receiver an important position at which to build up as much as possible.
Overall Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Value +
|
Weeks
|
6
|
Davante Adams
|
GBP
|
161.6
|
15
|
7
|
Antonio Brown
|
PIT
|
160.7
|
14
|
11
|
Tyreek Hill
|
KCC
|
150.2
|
12
|
12
|
DeAndre Hopkins
|
HOU
|
142.8
|
15
|
15
|
Michael Thomas
|
NOS
|
138.6
|
12
|
16
|
Adam Thielen
|
MIN
|
137.7
|
14
|
17
|
Julio Jones
|
ATL
|
137.3
|
14
|
19
|
JuJu Smith-Schuster
|
PIT
|
120.4
|
13
|
22
|
Mike Evans
|
TBB
|
110.3
|
12
|
24
|
LAR
|
108.3
|
14
|
|
26
|
Odell Beckham
|
NYG
|
102.3
|
10
|
27
|
Stefon Diggs
|
MIN
|
102.2
|
10
|
28
|
Keenan Allen
|
LAC
|
101.8
|
13
|
31
|
Amari Cooper
|
DAL
|
100.0
|
7
|
32
|
T.Y. Hilton
|
IND
|
100.0
|
11
|
37
|
CIN
|
86.7
|
10
|
|
43
|
Brandin Cooks
|
LAR
|
82.5
|
12
|
47
|
Emmanuel Sanders
|
DEN
|
76.7
|
10
|
48
|
ATL
|
76.7
|
6
|
|
49
|
Kenny Golladay
|
DET
|
75.8
|
10
|
53
|
Tyler Lockett
|
SEA
|
72.2
|
13
|
55
|
Julian Edelman
|
NEP
|
70.1
|
10
|
57
|
A.J. Green
|
CIN
|
65.2
|
8
|
60
|
LAR
|
62.5
|
6
|
|
63
|
LAC
|
61.2
|
7
|
|
65
|
Alshon Jeffery
|
PHI
|
60.9
|
6
|
66
|
Jarvis Landry
|
CLE
|
60.4
|
11
|
70
|
Robby Anderson
|
NYJ
|
57.2
|
5
|
72
|
Golden Tate
|
PHI
|
56.7
|
7
|
73
|
Corey Davis
|
TEN
|
56.7
|
7
|
75
|
TBB
|
55.8
|
7
|
|
85
|
Adam Humphries
|
TBB
|
49.6
|
7
|
88
|
Sterling Shepard
|
NYG
|
47.2
|
7
|
89
|
John Brown
|
BAL
|
47.2
|
7
|
91
|
Jordy Nelson
|
OAK
|
46.7
|
7
|
92
|
Will Fuller
|
HOU
|
46.0
|
5
|
94
|
Dede Westbrook
|
JAC
|
45.5
|
8
|
95
|
Doug Baldwin
|
SEA
|
44.5
|
6
|
96
|
Larry Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
44.4
|
9
|
99
|
Kenny Stills
|
MIA
|
43.4
|
4
|
101
|
Sammy Watkins
|
KCC
|
42.9
|
6
|
102
|
Chris Godwin
|
TBB
|
42.5
|
7
|
103
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
42.2
|
7
|
104
|
Dante Pettis
|
SFO
|
41.7
|
5
|
105
|
D.J. Moore
|
CAR
|
40.6
|
7
|
106
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
ATL
|
40.1
|
8
|
107
|
MIA
|
40.0
|
3
|
|
109
|
BUF
|
39.2
|
5
|
|
110
|
Josh Gordon
|
NEP
|
38.7
|
8
|
113
|
Demaryius Thomas
|
HOU
|
38.1
|
7
|
114
|
Tre'Quan Smith
|
NOS
|
38.1
|
3
|
120
|
SEA
|
35.7
|
5
|
|
122
|
Tyrell Williams
|
LAC
|
35.5
|
6
|
123
|
Marvin Jones
|
DET
|
35.1
|
4
|
127
|
Curtis Samuel
|
CAR
|
33.9
|
8
|
129
|
Nelson Agholor
|
PHI
|
32.9
|
7
|
131
|
Donte Moncrief
|
JAC
|
32.3
|
5
|
136
|
Robert Foster
|
BUF
|
31.1
|
4
|
137
|
Christian Kirk
|
ARI
|
30.8
|
6
|
138
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
CHI
|
30.1
|
4
|
145
|
Marquise Goodwin
|
SFO
|
28.3
|
4
|
149
|
Devin Funchess
|
CAR
|
27.0
|
4
|
153
|
Anthony Miller
|
CHI
|
25.6
|
7
|
157
|
Antonio Callaway
|
CLE
|
25.0
|
5
|
159
|
Cole Beasley
|
DAL
|
24.1
|
4
|
160
|
Courtland Sutton
|
DEN
|
23.7
|
6
|
161
|
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
|
GBP
|
23.7
|
5
|
162
|
Chester Rogers
|
IND
|
23.5
|
4
|
163
|
Rashard Higgins
|
CLE
|
23.2
|
5
|
164
|
Michael Crabtree
|
BAL
|
23.1
|
7
|
166
|
Randall Cobb
|
GBP
|
22.5
|
2
|
169
|
Josh Reynolds
|
LAR
|
21.5
|
3
|
175
|
Chris Hogan
|
NEP
|
20.6
|
4
|
176
|
Geronimo Allison
|
GBP
|
20.4
|
4
|
177
|
Danny Amendola
|
MIA
|
19.9
|
4
|
181
|
Chris Conley
|
KCC
|
18.7
|
3
|
185
|
Cordarrelle Patterson
|
NEP
|
17.5
|
4
|
187
|
Aldrick Robinson
|
MIN
|
17.0
|
4
|
188
|
Quincy Enunwa
|
NYJ
|
16.1
|
5
|
189
|
Jamison Crowder
|
WAS
|
16.0
|
3
|
190
|
Michael Gallup
|
DAL
|
16.0
|
3
|
193
|
Keelan Cole
|
JAC
|
15.1
|
2
|
194
|
Zach Pascal
|
IND
|
14.9
|
2
|
196
|
Jaron Brown
|
SEA
|
14.7
|
2
|
198
|
Phillip Dorsett
|
NEP
|
14.6
|
2
|
199
|
Jermaine Kearse
|
NYJ
|
14.5
|
2
|
200
|
John Ross
|
CIN
|
14.0
|
5
|
Building a Floor at Wide Receiver
The weekly WR42 scored almost identically to our replacement level running back, averaging just over 7.5 points per game. Using that number for replacement-level production, we notice some glaring trends. First, the elite wide receivers hit this mark almost every single week. The top-10 wide receivers each put up at least replacement-level production in 12+ games. In total, 21 wide receivers put up at least 10 games of replacement-level production. If you use at least two picks in the first handful of rounds at wide receiver and hit on those picks, you should have a big chunk of your weeks covered with at least replacement level production.
Upside at Wide Receiver
It is difficult to build serious upside at wide receiver in best ball if you don’t address the position at least twice in the first five rounds. Only 14 wide receivers scored 100+ points above replacement-level last season. Of this elite group of performers, only Robert Woods finished with an ADP outside of the first four rounds. While it is difficult to consistently put up big scores at wide receiver without at least one elite option, it is not impossible. For example, Cooper Kupp and Mike Williams combined gave you the equivalent of a low-end WR1, with the best weeks between the two scoring 109.5 points above replacement.
While it is hard to strike gold in the late rounds with a player who makes a huge impact, it is not difficult to find wide receivers late who can still provide a solid boost to your point totals. Players who have some big-play ability or who are red zone threats are especially strong options to build in some weekly upside in the later rounds. Albert Wilson, Zay Jones, TreQuan Smith, and David Moore each were able to provide 35+ points of value last season on the strength of a couple of big weeks. Having a good number of backups capable of contributing at least a few big weekly totals is key to building a high-scoring best ball team.
Tight End: 2-3
As with quarterback, drafting at least two at the tight end position is a no-brainer. Even if you draft an elite tight end, you will want to have a fill-in for his bye week. Tight end is also a position where injuries occur regularly. Last season, Rob Gronkowski, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, and Tyler Eifert each missed multiple games.
Drafting three tight ends is a strong option in many situations. The problem is that supply does not meet demand. Less than 20 tight ends averaged more than 5.0 DRAFT points per game. If you are on the clock in the later rounds and there is a tight end you believe in still available, you should probably pull the trigger. You should not try to force it, however. Drafting somebody who is only going to score 60 points all season isn’t going to do you much good and it doesn’t make sense to pass on better players at other positions simply to meet a positional target.
Building a Floor at Tight End
Tight End is easily the most difficult position at which to build a floor at. As noted above, less than 20 qualified tight ends scored more than 5.0 points per game last season. The average score of the TE15 each week during 2018 was just over 5.5 points per game. Replacement level production at the position is a low bar to clear. However, despite the low bar, it is notable how few players were able to clear it with any regularity last season. Only eight players were able to post 9+ games of 5.5 DRAFT points or more. Only 19 tight ends posted 6+ games of 5.5 points or more.
There are two realistic paths to building a consistent floor at tight end. First, you could draft an elite tight end. The top 6 last season each posted at least 10 replacement level games and the three elite tight ends each posted 13 or more such games. If you were lucky enough to draft one of this trio, you were pretty much set every week. The second path to building a consistent floor at tight end was to hit on at least a two later-round picks — a task made much more difficult by all of the injuries at the position.
Upside at Tight End
The top tight ends were so far ahead of the pack that Travis Kelce alone scored almost as many points over the 16 week fantasy season (234.4) as you would have scored combined had you rostered the TE5, TE6, and TE7 (238.6 points). In short, it is extremely difficult to match the upside of the elite tight ends simply by hitting on multiple lower-tier TE1s.
However, it is worth noting that he “Big 3” at tight end — Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle — each had historic seasons last year. While their value was huge, banking on them being able to do it again may be unwise. Of the trio, Kelce seems most likely to repeat. Ertz and Kittle both face increased competition for targets.
Overall Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
Value +
|
Weeks
|
9
|
KCC
|
156.3
|
14
|
|
14
|
PHI
|
141.6
|
13
|
|
23
|
SFO
|
109.6
|
13
|
|
25
|
Eric Ebron
|
IND
|
104.5
|
11
|
39
|
OAK
|
85.0
|
10
|
|
69
|
TBB
|
57.5
|
8
|
|
80
|
Trey Burton
|
CHI
|
52.1
|
8
|
83
|
NEP
|
50.6
|
8
|
|
87
|
ATL
|
47.7
|
10
|
|
90
|
Kyle Rudolph
|
MIN
|
47.0
|
9
|
97
|
David Njoku
|
CLE
|
44.2
|
7
|
115
|
NYG
|
37.9
|
7
|
|
117
|
Jimmy Graham
|
GBP
|
36.6
|
7
|
119
|
Chris Herndon
|
NYJ
|
35.8
|
7
|
124
|
Vance McDonald
|
PIT
|
35.0
|
8
|
135
|
WAS
|
31.4
|
8
|
|
140
|
Dallas Goedert
|
PHI
|
29.2
|
4
|
151
|
Cameron Brate
|
TBB
|
26.1
|
5
|
156
|
CAR
|
25.4
|
6
|
|
165
|
Vernon Davis
|
WAS
|
22.9
|
5
|
168
|
Gerald Everett
|
LAR
|
21.7
|
5
|
170
|
Jesse James
|
PIT
|
21.4
|
4
|
172
|
Ben Watson
|
NOS
|
21.0
|
4
|
174
|
Mark Andrews
|
BAL
|
20.8
|
7
|
179
|
Jordan Thomas
|
HOU
|
19.1
|
4
|
180
|
C.J. Uzomah
|
CIN
|
18.8
|
8
|
184
|
Antonio Gates
|
LAC
|
17.6
|
4
|
186
|
Jeff Heuerman
|
DEN
|
17.4
|
3
|
191
|
Ian Thomas
|
CAR
|
15.6
|
3
|