A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very lain a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Sam Darnold, NY Jets
Phil Alexander: Darnold was the top-rated passer in the league over the final quarter of his rookie season. The Jets added safety valves -- LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder -- to help in the short passing game, and Darnold developed great rapport late last year with Robby Anderson on downfield throws and Chris Herndon in the red zone. He's an elite quarterback prospect primed to make a second-year leap. The arrow is quietly pointing up for the entire Jets offense.
Drew Davenport: After Darnold was injured during the 2018 season he was able to head to the bench, observe the offense, and come out of his downtime on fire. Additionally, in the offseason, the Jets went out and got LeVeon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and some offensive line help. New Head Coach Adam Gase's slow snap pace is a minor concern, but Darnold's efficiency should be such that he can easily outperform his dirt-cheap ADP. He has the look of a quarterback who is ready to take the next step and his price is almost free so he's a strong late-round investment at the position.
Jeff Haseley: Carson Wentz had a relatively average, mediocre first season before exploding on the scene in his second year. Sam Darnold has that same level of intrigue heading into his second season. He has the talent for big things in the league. If his development, surrounding cast, and luck go his way, he could have a breakthrough year in 2019. He has looked outstanding in camp and preseason so far.
Andy Hicks: The Jets begin the process of surrounding Sam Darnold with weapons by signing LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder. Adding Adam Gase as the head coach seems an odd choice. One bad year of a new head coach could set Darnold back permanently. That said, Darnold does look the goods, but fantasy success may take a little stability in the organization. 2019, therefore, will be a challenge, but if he gets through this year with improvement, he should become a regular atop fantasy quarterbacks and if things go well that may well start this year for fantasy managers. An excellent high upside pick.
Dan Hindery: It is hard to find real upside at the quarterback position in the very late rounds. Darnold could be the lone exception. We have regularly seen quarterbacks make big leaps in their second seasons. Last year, Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, and Mitch Trubisky each made a fantasy impact in their second seasons. Trubisky made an especially big leap in fantasy production from his first season to his second. In 2017, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz both made massive leaps and were fantasy draft steals. Darnold showed serious flashes as a 21-year old rookie and the early camp reports have been glowing about the progress he has made in the offseason. The Jets have also improved the talent around Darnold with some recent additions to the offensive line combined with the free-agent additions of LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder.
Justin Howe: Darnold’s rookie year wasn’t consistently pretty; in fact, it was pretty bad for a hefty stretch early on. But upon his Week 14 return from injury, he closed the season as one of football’s more effective passers. Over those final four weeks, he landed seventh league-wide in adjusted yards per attempt and 12th in passing fantasy points. Going forward, he’ll likely continue to lean on his slot guys (Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, tight end Chris Herndon), which will hopefully keep up his efficiency numbers and confidence. That will allow him to dial up Robby Anderson down the field more often, a connection with serious upside. The pair hooked up 23 times for 336 yards and 3 scores over those final four games.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Clayton Gray: This one is pretty simple. In the last eight seasons, Stafford has been a top-10 quarterback six times. Last season went about as bad a possible for him. He lost receivers and suffered a broken back. That's probably not going to happen again, so it's perfectly reasonable to expect Stafford to perform like a starting fantasy quarterback in 2019. At worst, he'll be an excellent backup for you.
Andy Hicks: After years of consistent fantasy production, Matthew Stafford did not adapt well to the new coaching staff at all. His passing yardage and touchdowns fell off a cliff, although surprisingly his completion percentage remained intact. It was later reported that Stafford played with multiple broken bones in his back, which explains quite a lot. He is good enough to resurrect his career if the team has improved around him. Kenny Golladay looks like a future pro bowler, T.J. Hockensen was drafted high and Marvin Jones is consistent. Add in an improved running game and Stafford is still only 31 years old. It has to be remembered that prior to last year he was a top 10 fantasy quarterback for six of the previous seven years. How quickly people forget.
Jeff Pasquino: Finding sleeper quarterbacks (beyond the Top 20-22) is a tougher challenge this season, but one way to start is to find one that is going to be the starter all season. Stafford has not missed a game for eight seasons now, and he finished as a Top 10 quarterback in 6 of those 8 years. The problems lie with last year (QB20), partly due to his passing yards dropping below 4.000 for the first time over that same period. The Lions lost strong receiving options last season (Eric Ebron, Golden Tate) along with an injury to Marvin Jones. If Jones stays healthy and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson contributes adequately, Stafford should have four strong targets on the field (Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson) whenever the Lions’ offense takes the field. Stafford’s track record alone makes him a viable sleeper QB2, with QB1 upside in favorable matchups.
Matt Waldman: Team website writer Mike O’Hara said that Stafford played at least a few games with a broken back—and possible Stafford performed with significant injuries for much longer. Marvin Jones missed six games last year and it took a rotation of two tight ends to account for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns, which didn’t match Eric Ebron’s 574 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2017. Stafford was the No.6 fantasy quarterback in 2017 and delivered the third-most passing yards, fourth-most passing touchdowns, and fourth-highest yards-per-attempt average of any starter. He has six top-10 fantasy seasons at his position during the past eight years and three consecutive at this level prior to last year’s injury-riddled season. Rookie T.J. Hockenson is making plays downfield during practice that look like a starting tight end in peak form. A healthy Stafford –and an even healthier run offense—are no worse than a top-15 fantasy starter.
Jason Wood: I wouldn’t say I’m particularly bullish on Matthew Stafford this year, but it’s hard to understand how far he’s fallen given his impressive history. Stafford is inarguably a better fantasy asset than real-life quarterback, but we are about the fantasy points, not the Lions win-loss record. Sure, he finished QB20 last year in Matt Patricia’s first season as head coach, but why aren’t we treating it as an outlier? Stafford was a QB1 in six of his prior seven seasons, and we’ve subsequently learned Stafford had broken bones in his back last year. If a broken back and a litany of injuries to his receivers and offensive line aren’t enough to discount 2018’s poor showing, what is?
Player(s) Receiving 2 Votes
Marcus Mariota/Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Andy Hicks: Four years in and the Titans still don't know what they have in Marcus Mariota. They have safeguarded the situation by adding another often injured player, who seven years into his career is also still an unknown proposition in Ryan Tannehill. Mariota has at times looked like he belongs but was disappointing for the most part. Adding Adam Humphries in free agency is a solid move, as is A.J. Brown in the draft. If it is ever going to happen it will be this year. In deeper leagues, selecting Mariota and Tannehill is a wise move. Receiver production potentially could skyrocket with the skill added.
Daniel Simpkins: Tennessee came just short of making the playoffs last season with a team that was held together by rubber bands and duck tape. They’ve added some offensive talent, their line looks better with Rodger Saffold, and they’ll have some key personnel coming back from injury on both sides of the ball. All of that bodes well for them being much better than they were last year and the passing offense growing into a respectable unit. Even if Mariota once again proves not to be able to stay healthy, Ryan Tannehill is basically his clone in terms of ability and style of play and can be had cheaply or for free in most leagues.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Derek Carr, Oakland
Jeff Pasquino: This one seems pretty easy here, as Carr is getting a Top 5 wide receiver in Antonio Brown added to his bag of tricks. Defenses will not be able to key on the passing game as rookie Josh Jacobs should do enough in his first campaign to keep the opposition honest. Carr may have lost Jared Cook to New Orleans, but the addition of Tyrell Williams on the other side of Brown along with reports that TE Darren Weller is making a big impression as he enters his second year in Oakland. Carr finished as a Top 15 quarterback in both 2015 and 2016, and now he has enough talent around him to finish at least that high, which makes him an attractive QB2 with QB1 upside in favorable matchups.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami
Ryan Hester: If Fitzpatrick earns the starting job, he has to be considered in two-quarterback or super-flex leagues. He’s being drafted outside of the top-30 and would be a starter. In addition to that, he has shown top-5 fantasy upside in the past -- even on a bad team with a bad supporting cast. He’s a penny stock who could pay dividends.
Nick Foles, Jacksonville
Will Grant: I hesitate to place him in this category because I think he goes undrafted in most redraft leagues, but Nick Foles is a guy you might want on your Waiver Wire Speed Dial. You can't project his Philadelphia stats over 16 games in Jacksonville, but Foles does know how to motivate a team and his ADP is absolutely rock bottom right now. If your league has deeper rosters and you are looking to grab a quarterback who 'might turn into something', I think Foles is a guy who can fit that category.
Chad Kelly, Indianapolis
Matt Waldman: Andrew Luck's calf injury has kept the veteran away from the practice field. If he suffers a setback early in the season, Kelly could be a compelling reserve. Kicked off the Broncos just before the announcement that he'd earn his first regular-season start, Kelly has all of the tools of a productive NFL starter with the important exception of his off-field maturity. Kelly lit up the Bills during the preseason with pinpoint passing under pressure and athletic ability to outrun defensive backs with good angles for long gains. Before Deshaun Watson was 'the future' at Clemson, the Tigers signed Kelly--a star dual-threat quarterback in high school. Although Jacoby Brissett will earn the No.2 role, the Colts shopped Brissett after acquiring Kelly. You won't pick Kelly in any re-draft format but you should monitor his standing with the team and take him as a free agent if the Luck's health warrants.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee
Chad Parsons: More for Superflex leagues and down the road of the 2019 season, but I have zero faith in Marcus Mariota to stay healthy and turn around his NFL career to-date. The weapons are solid for Tennessee and an otherwise competitive Titans team could turn to Tannehill midseason, even if Mariota is healthy, to breath life into the offense.