A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Phil Alexander: If Jackson can make any type of strides as a passer, a top-15 ranking is close to a floor projection. The Ravens did a great job in the draft surrounding Jackson with speedy, athletic players who can stress defenses in a variety of ways. Barring injury, it is a near certainty Jackson will lead all quarterbacks in rushing this season. A soft early-season schedule and full off-season of practices as the starter can only help him improve in the passing game. We can't dismiss an overall QB1 finish out of hand.
Drew Davenport: After a finish to the 2018 season that saw Jackson play seven games as a starter, score 5 rushing touchdowns, compile 556 rushing yards, and carry the ball 17 times per game, it's hard to see how Jackson still sits where he does in ADP. It's fair to question if he can keep up that pace carrying the football to make it through the year, but the Ravens have given him an upgrade at almost every skill position and he's set up to succeed. With such a depressed ADP he's being drafted below any type of floor he set last year.
Jeff Haseley: Jackson may not be a consistent weekly 200+ yard passer, but his rushing ability and ability to score make him a viable commodity in the fantasy landscape. He finished QB8 after Week 12 last year. Surprisingly, he had more fantasy points after Week 12 than Patrick Mahomes II, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. The scary part about Jackson is that his passing game has looked markedly better in the preseason. If he can provide a decent passing game with his already potent ability to rush and score, look out.
Ryan Hester: Even as a rookie, he was the QB11 in points ger game once he took over as the starter in Week 11. With rushing yards being 2.5 times more valuable than passing yards and rushing touchdowns being 1.5 times more valuable the passing touchdowns, Jackson is a fantasy football cheat code who needs little passing production to be a fringe QB1. If he matures as a passer at all, he could tilt the fantasy football pinball machine. The best part is that even if he tanks, he was selected late enough that he’s replaceable.
Justin Howe: Fantasy players don’t have to like Jackson’s arm – or Baltimore’s passing volume – to pounce on Jackson. He finished his seven-week starting stretch as fantasy’s QB6, posting the league’s seventh-most points per opportunity. Had he not thrown a single pass, he still would have finished QB20. Some are wringing their hands over Jackson The Passer, but that’s a spectacular floor for a fantasy quarterback. “Safer” options like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers bring nothing to the table in terms of rushing; they’re entirely dependent upon big volume and big efficiency to be a boon. Jackson brings a borderline QB1/2 outlook even as a bad passer – with the ceiling to finish top-six (again). He shouldn’t be discounted this heavily in fantasy.
Daniel Simpkins: As was documented here, Jackson gets an unfair characterization as a quarterback who is only good as a runner and not as a passer. Given that he will have some new weapons with which to work and better chemistry with the old ones in a system that is tailored for him, it’s virtually assured he’ll break into the top ten fantasy quarterbacks this year. Even if one does not believe in Jackson as a passer, one has to acknowledge his abilities as a runner. Even Tim Tebow, who could not throw with any accuracy or touch, managed a top-eight fantasy finish in 2011 on the strength of his legs.
Matt Waldman: The Ravens inserted Jackson into an offense where its running plays were designed for Jackson but the passing game had spent months working with Joe Flacco. Despite lacking the months of timing built with an offseason of first-team practices, Jackson performed better in the passing game than most understand. Major media has been hyper-focused on magnifying less consequential details of Jackson’s practices out of proportion. This is good for savvier fantasy players who understand that Jackson’s excellent pocket presence, valuable poise, and developing accuracy will be supplemented with a significant dose of big-play work on the ground. The sub-par playoff performance against the Chargers was a far greater failure of the coaching staff than Jackson. Look for the Ravens offense to continue posing difficult problems for opposing defenses to solve and Jackson delivering enough top-five fantasy weeks to at least earn top-12 production at the position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
Drew Davenport: The concerns about how Minnesota's offense will look are certainly justified. It appears from a small sample size late last season that new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski will run the football, and this appears to be the order from Head Coach Mike Zimmer as well. But even a sizable drop in pass attempts can't account for his current ADP. He still plays with two immensely talented wide receivers, an excellent red zone tight end, and his teams will be in most games because of a good defense. His current ADP is an overreaction.
Will Grant: People are starting to wake up to Cousins's value, but he's still a quarterback that you can grab in the later rounds and still get good value out of him. Yes, quarterback is a position that you can wait on and the committee approach is still the best way to go. But Cousins had 4300 yards passing and 30 passing touchdowns last year. If he simply repeats that performance he'll easily exceed his current ADP. If you are looking for a backup with upside or the second wave to your QBBC approach, Cousins is a great guy to target.
Andy Hicks: Kirk Cousins broke career records in passing yardage and touchdowns, completed over 70% of his passes and threw the lowest amount of interceptions in his period as a full-time starter. Why then was the 2018 season seen as a disappointing year for the Vikings quarterback? Expectations of Superbowl or bust tend to do that. Cousins gives the appearance of being a solid current starter and 2019 should provide another solid season from a fantasy perspective. Why he is being drafted after or near unproven quarterbacks like Mitchell Trubisky, Kyler Murray and Jameis Winston is beyond me. Cousins has finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback for four straight years and has multiple elite weapons at his disposal.
Chad Parsons: Cousins is one of the 'Rodney Dangerfield' fantasy producers over the years (getting no respect) with his top-12 finishes and yet an affordable draft cost, again, in 2019. Cousins has an enviable set of weapons and has added Alexander Mattison and Irv Smith with Day 2 selections this offseason to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph.
Jason Wood: Kirk Cousins is the best fantasy value at any position. It’s indefensible to let him fall this far. He finished QB9 last year, his fourth consecutive top-9 finish. Only three quarterbacks can make that claim: Wilson, Brees, and Cousins. Consider Cousins did all this playing for two teams and five offensive coordinators. He also set career highs last season in completion rate, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interception rate. Yet, he’s falling in drafts because of the final three weeks of the season, when Kevin Stefanski took over, and the Vikings became a run-heavy team. Are we going to discount four years of elite production for a three-week sample? Gary Kubiak –hired this offseason – has a long history of productive fantasy quarterbacks, and the Vikings strength remains the trio of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. Cousins will get plenty of opportunities to earn his $30+ million salary yet again.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Phil Alexander: Murray is patient in the pocket, deadly accurate (69% completion last season), has a quick release, and can throw to all areas of the field (11.6 yards per attempt). He may need to play Houdini behind a suspect offensive line, but Murray's speed makes it possible and he has an exciting blend of skill position weapons at his disposal to help him extend plays. The potential is also there for 500+ rushing yards to pad his passing stats. If Kliff Kingsbury is able to stick to his game plan, the Cardinals will finish among the league leaders in offensive plays and total pass attempts, giving Murray an overall QB1 ceiling that isn’t reflected by his ADP.
Dan Hindery: The quarterback position is incredibly deep, which is the key to formulating a draft strategy. Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, and Philip Rivers have QB2 ADPs. Even deeper, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Andy Dalton are basically free at this point and should give you 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Given the ease of landing a high-floor QB2, there is no reason not to swing for the fences when picking your QB1. Nobody truly knows how the Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury experiment will work out in Arizona but there is no doubt it has a chance to be a fantasy bonanza. Under Kingsbury, Texas Tech had multiple seasons averaging over 450 passing yards per game and annually ranked near the top in scoring offense. The team will play fast, throw often, and give Murray opportunities as a runner. Given Murray’s elite athleticism and big arm, the ceiling here is incredibly high.
Chad Parsons: Murray has a collection of strong weapons and a scheme to fit his arm talent and most importantly for fantasy purposes, his rushing ability. Murray is creeping up in price but is one of the few legitimate high-end upside options within a simple story explanatory without a high-end draft cost.
Daniel Simpkins: Murray’s win-loss record may be disappointing by year’s end, but we should fully expect an offense that will be exciting, dynamic, and will produce massively for fantasy purposes. As fellow Footballguy Dwain Mc Farland has pointed out, the offense will be shotgun formation, up-tempo, put weapons in space, and create favorable matchups for the offense. This offense is tailor-made for Murray and his skills and should put Murray instantly in the top-15 conversation at his position.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Jared Goff, LA Rams
Jeff Pasquino: Someone needs to explain how a quarterback with a Top 5 offense with three wide receivers in the ADP Top 50 is not in the Top 10 quarterbacks in most drafts. Throw in that his star tailback has a questionable bill of health and that Goff leads an offense that was #2 in overall scoring, #5 in total passing yards and tied for 8th in passing touchdowns and he appears to be a bargain as a quarterback available outside of the Top 10.
Jeff Tefertiller: We have all seemed to have forgotten how good Sean McVay and Jared Goff were in 2018. Goff was an elite QB1 option last year and now gets Cooper Kupp back. Why would he now be drafted as a very low-end QB1? The uncertainty of the Todd Gurley situation can only help.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Ryan Hester: The ideal quarterback selection in one-quarterback leagues is someone outside the top-12 who can finish in the top-5. Prescott is an ideal candidate this season. He starts with an easy schedule (vs. NYG, at WAS, vs. MIA) that should allow his offense to score points, and he always supplements his passing production with fantasy points on the ground. Draft Prescott and start the season right. He may ride the early momentum to a high-end finish. And if he doesn’t, he can be replaced via the waiver wire.
Matt Waldman: A top-five fantasy producer earlier in his career when surrounded with capable talent at the receiving corps, offensive line, and running back, Prescott’s only significant stint of underperformance during his career came before the Amari Cooper trade. During this period, the Cowboys lost Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick to a season-ending illness, there was no capable replacement for Dez Bryant moving on, and Jason Witten was in the broadcast booth. Despite lacking good answers for the missing Frederick and Witten, the addition of Cooper propelled Prescott to strong fantasy production for the remainder for 2018. This year, Frederick and Witten return to the offense and it also earns an upgrade in the slot with Randall Cobb. Prescott doesn’t win the annual football analyst quarterback technique pageants, but he’s tough, athletic, resourceful, and productive value play with a full complement of weapons.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: Despite Ben Roethlisberger's injury-prone tag, he has missed just seven games in the last six years. Add to that is the fact that 2018 was his best fantasy season ever, finishing as the third-ranked quarterback and passing for over 5000 yards for the first time in his career. A career-high in passing touchdowns points to the fact that Roethlisberger is far from finished. The Steelers passing game will be just fine. The loss of Antonio Brown is overstated and not indicative of production this year for the Steelers. James Washington will be in year two, Diontae Johnson was drafted early and Donte Moncrief added in free agency. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald play at a pro bowl level already and the running game is more than honest. Roethlisberger is being drafted as a backup, which cannot be based on his production for the last six years.
Jeff Pasquino: Pittsburgh led all teams in pass attempts last season, and it was not even close. Ben Roethlisberger averaged over 40 pass attempts in 2018, which speaks to how much of a pass-happy offense the Steelers had last year. Antonio Brown is gone, but Roethlisberger has gone through several wide receiver changes in his long career in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are once again turning to James Conner as their starting tailback, and Conner struggled in the second half of 2018. Pittsburgh expects its wide receivers and tight ends to step up for Roethlisberger, and the collective group could boost Roethlisberger into the Top 10 once again this year. Roethlisberger has been a Top 10 quarterback in 7 of the last 13 seasons (including 3 of 4 prior to Brown becoming a Steeler), so history is on the side of another Top 10 season for Roethlisberger, making him a solid value quarterback selection this year.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Ryan Hester: If you need the safety net that a high-end quarterback provides, why not draft the player that quietly finished 2018 as the overall QB2 for the second time in the last three years? Ryan will also be reunited with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. And he’ll play 13 of his 15 fantasy-relevant (i.e. excluding Week 17) games in a dome this season. And for the nitpickiest of naysayers, the other two are in the temperate-to-warm climates of Carolina and San Francisco.
Jason Wood: Ryan finished as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback last year, and that was hardly a fluke. He was the 3rd best quarterback in 2016 and has been a top-10 quarterback in seven of the last nine seasons. His baseline is about as ironclad as anyone at the position but should be in-line to duplicate or improve on last year’s career bests. Julio Jones is healthy, Calvin Ridley enters Year Two passing all his rookie tests, and Mohamed Sanu is a picture-perfect third receiver. Devonta Freeman is healthy and gives Ryan a dynamic out of the backfield he missed in Freeman’s absence. Dirk Koetter returns to the play-calling role that turned Ryan into an MVP years ago, and most importantly the offensive line should be massively improved thanks to the additions of two rookie studs.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay
Jeff Pasquino: Jameis Winston is entering his contract year with Tampa Bay, and quite frankly this is a “put up or shut up” season for him. His new head coach, Bruce Arians, should put Winston in favorable situations, as Arians has boosted several quarterbacks’ numbers throughout his NFL career. Winston has had good streaks of performance, including last season (he was QB9 from Week 11 on last year). Even with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries leaving via free agency, there are plenty of strong targets for Winston to put up QB1 numbers, as long as he keeps the interception totals down.
Jason Wood: Winston finished 18th and 21st over the last two seasons, which explains his modest average draft position. But those year-end rankings don’t paint a clear picture because he missed eight games over that span, in part due to a flip-flopping with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Did you realize Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston combined for 447 fantasy points last year? That would’ve ranked No. 2 behind only Patrick Mahomes II. Winston doesn’t need to maintain that pace as a 16-game starter to justify his ADP, although it’s not out of the question. Bruce Arians takes over as head coach, and Byron Leftwich will take over play-calling. Expect Winston to benefit from the mentorship in the same way he benefitted from the hands-on oversight of Jimbo Fisher during his Florida State days. If Winston can cut down his turnovers while maintaining his career touchdown and yards-per-attempt rates, he’ll be a must-start QB1.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Will Grant: Allen narrowly misses the "deep sleeper" designation as his ADP begins to climb. He's much more valuable in a best ball league, but a quarterback who is going to run the ball 100+ times this season is worth consideration as your potential backup/bye-week fill in. He could very easily outperform guys like Tom Brady or Philip Rivers - two quarterback who will be drafted in almost every redraft league this season.
Cam Newton, Carolina
Dan Hindery: After 13 weeks last season, Newton was the fantasy QB4 despite playing with a bum shoulder that limited his deep passing and led to fewer goal-line carries. Plus, his top three pass catchers were 22 (Christian McCaffrey), 21 (D.J. Moore), and 22 (Curtis Samuel) years old. Newton looks on track to be healthy and the passing offense should take a big step forward if the young talent matures. In addition to an expected improvement in passing numbers, a healthy Newton could double his rushing touchdowns from last season. Outside of McCaffrey, the entire Carolina offense looks undervalued heading into draft season.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago
Drew Davenport: Sometimes watching Trubisky can be a frustrating proposition as he is prone to bouts of wild inaccuracy. But the results for fantasy purposes are undeniable. Before a late-season injury tempered his results Trubisky was one of the more explosive weekly plays at the position. This is due in no small part to the rushing numbers that pad his weekly fantasy upside. Keep in mind that Trubisky has only been a starter for 3 years - one year in college and two in the NFL. The entire offense should also get a bump from Anthony Miller being healthy, Allen Robinson getting that first-year post-ACL out of the way, and getting a second year of preparation with Matt Nagy's playbook. Trubisky's current ADP seems like one of the better bargains of the summer right now.
Deshaun Watson, Houston
Clayton Gray: Sure, Watson is generally the second quarterback off the board after Patrick Mahomes II -- and he should be. But he's generally far behind Mahomes. There are lots of reasons to think Watson's ADP should be much closer to Mahomes'. First, Watson is now more than a full year recovered from his ACL tear. We know players usually struggle in their first season back from that injury. Also, his supporting cast has improved. By the end of 2018, Watson was throwing to a hobbled DeAndre Hopkins and a bunch of nothing. While it's discouraging to see Keke Coutee already down for a few weeks, this team has a lot more options right now. Finally -- and related -- the addition of Duke Johnson Jr will keep a lot of drives alive which will lead to more scoring chances for Watson.
Russell Wilson, Seattle
Andy Hicks: Russell Wilson has a habit of turning nothing into something every year and now into his eighth year and with a huge contract in the bank, he moves into that next phase of his career. 2018 was an outlier when it comes to all things Wilson. A massive drop in passing attempts and a massive drop in rushing attempts. No rushing touchdowns for the first time in his career and despite all this, he still finished as the 10th rated fantasy quarterback in 2018. If we get improvement in any of these areas, he becomes a safe top-five option once again. He started last season slowly but finished strongly. A better start in 2019 and Wilson should be a strong fantasy option if his targets can be even borderline reliable.