Some fantasy players insist that drafts happen as close as possible to the start of the regular season to avoid the fickle finger of camp and preseason injury luck. Others prefer to draft as early as possible. Why draft early? Because the fantasy hive mind is a powerful drug and its early conventional wisdom on player value framing can be exposed as well off of the mark once they put on the pads. Early ADP can be misleading and based on a mass misapprehension of a player or situation. The earlier you draft, the longer you can wait and the more you can profit from being ahead of the curve. Here are some players with ascending ADP impending:
Damien Harris, RB, NE - Whilst the fantasy community frets about Todd Gurley’s bum knee, nigh a peep is perceptible about Sony Michel’s similarly questionable joint. Well, that is until OTA’s started this week and he was not on the field. Harris might be better equipped for the role the Patriots put Michel in last year anyway. Harris’s Michel injury upside alone makes him worth a 10th or 11th round pick. Michel is one of the most likely backs to miss time this year and New England is perennially one of the best situations.
Mike Davis, RB, CHI - The Bears like David Montgomery and he could indeed follow the path of Kareem Hunt, seizing the vast majority of touches in an uncertain backfield. If he’s that much better than Tarik Cohen and Davis, Montgomery will earn the snaps and touches to be a value pick even at the most optimistic draft slot. I see Montgomery as much closer to Davis’s level (if not below) as a runner, and very good, but not more threatening than Cohen as a receiver. Davis’s recent comments indicate a full-blown committee, and Davis fits the “buy the cheapest back in uncertain backfields” smart drafting angle. Don’t forget he got more touches that first round pick Rashaad Penny in Seattle last year. Davis will go from fantasy afterthought to thought in the next two months.
Chris Carson, RB, SEA - Speaking of Penny, early ADP still reflects a belief that Penny could un-entrench Carson as the starter in Seattle. Penny’s touches will grow now that Davis is gone, and he is certainly worth his ADP, but Carson finished with a run of RB1 fantasy lines and is just getting into his prime. He should be closer to fellow ascendant backs Aaron Jones, Kerryon Johnson, and Derrick Henry in drafts.
Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR - Samuel and DJ Moore were basically the same commodity for fantasy in Cam Newton’s final games last year, but the ADP indicates a belief that Moore’s game and production will progress more than Samuel’s this year. Samuel actually had more room to grow as a receiver with a much more raw game coming into the league, so it’s not out of the range of possibilities that he actually surpasses Moore this year. They had more similar draft investment/pedigree than the conventional wisdom has absorbed and their ADPs should trend towards convergence over the summer.
Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC - It is possibie that Hill does not play again in 2019, if ever again in the NFL. It’s impossible to imagine Hill avoiding a lengthy suspension at this point even if a decision is made to not press charges again. I’m subject to cynicism as much as anyone, so I get the angle of assuming the Chiefs and NFL will allow him to play again this year if no charges are pressed despite considerable smoke around a place that already had a raging fire in the past. I get why Hill’s ADP remains buoyant on the basis, but I don’t get why Hardman and Watkins aren’t being valued closer to what they would represent if Hill misses say the first eight games. That value would be modest compared to what Hardman and Watkins are worth if Hill doesn’t play this year or is released by the Chiefs. Robinson should be a more common late-round pick as the reality sets in that he will likely get significant snaps with Patrick Mahomes II with only Sammy Watkins health as an obstacle to an even larger role.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC - #FirstroundKelce or bust, y’all. Kelce has arguably the best chemistry (see below) with Patrick Mahomes II of any passcatcher on the team, and if Hill is out for a considerable time, his production will rival any NFL wide receiver. Zach Ertz and George Kittle will at best stay level and more likely regress from 2018 production levels. Repeat after me: Travis Kelce is worth a first-round pick.
Mahomes and Kelce clowning at this wedding is priceless 😂 @PatrickMahomes @tkelce (via @iamkaylanicole) pic.twitter.com/YUtRPGEu16
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) May 12, 2019
Keke Coutee, WR, HOU - Coutee is healthy and he is going to show the world what he is capable of after hobbling his way to very impressive per game numbers as a rookie last year. All of the reports are glowing and his connection with Deshaun Watson will only grow. His previous production levels already justify his affordable ADP and all signs point to an increase in 2019.
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI - Remember was Jackson was an elite fantasy WR1 with Ryan Fitzpatrick? Carson Wentz is going to be an upgrade from Fitzpatrick, and just as aggressive throwing downfield. Early reports on their chemistry are glowing. Jackson’s production last year easily justifies his price and he could be a key to a hot start in leagues with deep lineups.
Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI - Goedert will have a larger role this year and has shown up ready to take the next step this season. Goedert could be a bigger factor downfield and in the red zone, which is certainly enough to get him over the low TE1 bar. An Ertz injury would make him an instant top 5-6 fantasy tight end. He’ll be a hotter name once it becomes clear that the Eagles see him as a core piece of the passing game.
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL - Andrews was almost able to become relevant in fantasy leagues last year even though he had to subsist in the leanest pass offense in the league. Hayden Hurst is already on the injury report. Forget draft capital here, Andrews has already shown who is going to be on Lamar Jackson’s mind when he drops back to pass. His early schedule is tantalizing and he’s an easy call as the leadoff hitter in a late round streaming tight end approach. The fantasy community treats Ravens passcatchers like kryptonite, so Andrews could stay below the radar.