Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 10/7 @ 7:00 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh | Atlanta | -3 | 30.25 | 57.5 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | Indianapolis | -10.5 | 30.25 | 50 | +++ | +++ | + |
New Orleans | Washington | -6 | 29.5 | 53 | +++ | +++ | |
LA Chargers | Oakland | -5 | 28.75 | 52.5 | +++ | +++ | |
LA Rams | Seattle | -7.5 | 28.75 | 50 | +++ | +++ | |
Atlanta | Pittsburgh | 3 | 27.25 | 57.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Cincinnati | Miami | -6 | 27 | 48 | ++ | ++ | |
Detroit | Green Bay | -1 | 26 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
Kansas City | Jacksonville | -3 | 25.5 | 48 | + | + | |
Green Bay | Detroit | 1 | 25 | 51 | + | + | |
Carolina | NY Giants | -6.5 | 25 | 43.5 | + | ++ | + |
Philadelphia | Minnesota | -3 | 25 | 47 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Cleveland | -3 | 24.25 | 45.5 | + | + | |
Houston | Dallas | -3 | 24.25 | 45.5 | + | + | |
Oakland | LA Chargers | 5 | 23.75 | 52.5 | |||
Washington | New Orleans | 6 | 23.5 | 53 | |||
Tennessee | Buffalo | -5.5 | 22.75 | 40 | ++ | ||
Jacksonville | Kansas City | 3 | 22.5 | 48 | |||
Minnesota | Philadelphia | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | -3 | 21.75 | 40.5 | + | ||
NY Jets | Denver | -1 | 21.75 | 42.5 | |||
Seattle | LA Rams | 7.5 | 21.25 | 50 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | 3 | 21.25 | 45.5 | |||
Dallas | Houston | 3 | 21.25 | 45.5 | |||
Miami | Cincinnati | 6 | 21 | 48 | |||
Denver | NY Jets | 1 | 20.75 | 42.5 | |||
Indianapolis | New England | 10.5 | 19.75 | 50 | |||
Arizona | San Francisco | 3 | 18.75 | 40.5 | |||
NY Giants | Carolina | 6.5 | 18.5 | 43.5 | |||
Buffalo | Tennessee | 5.5 | 17.25 | 40 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Drew Brees (Saints), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: James Conner (Steelers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram (Saints), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Cameron Meredith/Ben Watson (Saints), Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams/Keenan Allen/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Kerryon Johnson/LeGarrette Blount (Lions), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/John Ross (Bengals), Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay/Golden Tate (Lions)
- Defense: Titans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (Packers), Jay Ajayi (Eagles), Alex Collins (Ravens), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Davante Adams/Ty Montgomery/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Devin Funchess/Torrey Smith/Ian Thomas (Panthers), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Ravens), DeAndre Hopkins/Keke Coutee (Texans)
- Defense: 49ers, Panthers, Patriots