Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 9/30 7:30 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City | Denver | -4 | 29.25 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
Atlanta | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 28.25 | 53 | +++ | +++ | |
LA Chargers | San Francisco | -10 | 28 | 46 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
LA Rams | Minnesota | -7 | 28 | 49 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | Miami | -6.5 | 27.75 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
New Orleans | NY Giants | -3 | 27.75 | 52.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -3 | 27 | 51 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Buffalo | -9.5 | 26.75 | 44 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
Denver | Kansas City | 4 | 25.25 | 54.5 | + | + | |
Chicago | Tampa Bay | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | + | + | |
Cincinnati | Atlanta | 3.5 | 24.75 | 53 | + | + | |
NY Giants | New Orleans | 3 | 24.75 | 52.5 | + | + | |
Indianapolis | Houston | -1 | 24.25 | 47.5 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 3 | 24 | 51 | + | + | |
Oakland | Cleveland | -2.5 | 23.5 | 44.5 | |||
Dallas | Detroit | -2.5 | 23.25 | 44 | |||
Jacksonville | NY Jets | -7.5 | 23.25 | 39 | + | +++ | |
Houston | Indianapolis | 1 | 23.25 | 47.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Tennessee | -3 | 22 | 41 | + | ||
Tampa Bay | Chicago | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
Seattle | Arizona | -3.5 | 21.5 | 39.5 | ++ | ||
Miami | New England | 6.5 | 21.25 | 49 | |||
Minnesota | LA Rams | 7 | 21 | 49 | |||
Cleveland | Oakland | 2.5 | 21 | 44.5 | |||
Detroit | Dallas | 2.5 | 20.75 | 44 | |||
Tennessee | Philadelphia | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
Arizona | Seattle | 3.5 | 18 | 39.5 | |||
San Francisco | LA Chargers | 10 | 18 | 46 | |||
Buffalo | Green Bay | 9.5 | 17.25 | 44 | |||
NY Jets | Jacksonville | 7.5 | 15.75 | 39 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones/Ty Montgomery (Packers)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams/Keenan Allen/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams)
- Defense: Jaguars
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Drew Brees (Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Sony MIchel/James White (Patriots), Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Receivers: , Davante Adams/Geronimo Allison/Randall Cobb/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon/Phillip Dorsett/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Michael Thomas/Tedd Ginn/Cameron Meredith/Ben Watson (Saints), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers)
- Defense: Packers, Seahawks, Chargers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Case Keenum (Broncos), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Eli Manning (Giants), Andrew Luck (Colts), Joe Flacco (Ravens)
- Running Back: James Conner (Steelers), Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Jordan Howard (Bears), Nyheim Hines/Jordan Wilkins (Colts), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Courtland Sutton (Broncos), Allen Robinson/Taylor Gabriel/Trey Burton (Bears), A.J. Green/Tyler Boyd/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard (Giants), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Chester Rogers/Eric Ebron (Colts), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Steelers)
- Defense: Eagles