Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -9.5 | 29.5 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| New England | Houston | -6 | 27.75 | 49.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Oakland | -4.5 | 27 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | Chicago | -7 | 26.75 | 46.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| Minnesota | San Francisco | -6.5 | 26.25 | 46 | ++ | ++ | + |
| LA Chargers | Kansas City | -3 | 26 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
| Detroit | NY Jets | -6.5 | 25.75 | 45 | + | ++ | + |
| Indianapolis | Cincinnati | -2.5 | 25.25 | 48 | + | + | |
| Baltimore | Buffalo | -7.5 | 24 | 40.5 | + | + | ++ |
| Tennessee | Miami | -1 | 23 | 45 | |||
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | 3 | 23 | 49 | |||
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 22.75 | 48 | |||
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | -1 | 22.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -4 | 22.5 | 41 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | NY Giants | -3 | 22.5 | 42 | + | ||
| Carolina | Dallas | -3 | 22.5 | 42 | + | ||
| Oakland | LA Rams | 4.5 | 22.5 | 49.5 | |||
| Denver | Seattle | -3 | 22.25 | 41.5 | + | ||
| Arizona | Washington | -1 | 22.25 | 43.5 | |||
| Miami | Tennessee | 1 | 22 | 45 | |||
| Houston | New England | 6 | 21.75 | 49.5 | |||
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | 1 | 21.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Washington | Arizona | 1 | 21.25 | 43.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 9.5 | 20 | 49.5 | |||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 7 | 19.75 | 46.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Minnesota | 6.5 | 19.75 | 46 | |||
| NY Giants | Jacksonville | 3 | 19.5 | 42 | |||
| Dallas | Carolina | 3 | 19.5 | 42 | |||
| Seattle | Denver | 3 | 19.25 | 41.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Detroit | 6.5 | 19.25 | 45 | |||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 4 | 18.5 | 41 | |||
| Buffalo | Baltimore | 7.5 | 16.5 | 40.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), Rex Burkhead/James White (Patriots), Jamaal Williams (Packers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Cameron Meredith/Ben Watson (Saints), Chris Hogan/Phillip Dorsett/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Jared Goff (Rams), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray (Vikings), LeGarrette Blount/Kerryon Johnson/Theo Riddick (Lions), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Geronimo Allison/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers)
- Defense: Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (Lions), Andrew Luck (Colts), Joe Flacco (Ravens)
- Running Back: Jordan Wilkins (Colts), Alex Collins (Ravens)
- Receivers: Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Kenny Golladay (Lions), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron (Colts), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead (Ravens)
- Defense: Steelers, Lions, Broncos, Panthers, Jaguars, Vikings, Packers
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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Daily FF
DraftKings
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Davante Adams
Keenan Allen
Geronimo Allison
Tom Brady
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Rex Burkhead
Randall Cobb
Alex Collins
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Stefon Diggs
Phillip Dorsett
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Joe Flacco
Jared Goff
Kenny Golladay
Melvin Gordon III
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
T.Y. Hilton
Chris Hogan
Kerryon Johnson
Marvin Jones Jr
Alvin Kamara
Cooper Kupp
Latavius Murray
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Kyle Rudolph
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Willie Snead IV
Matthew Stafford
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
Carson Wentz
James White
Jordan Wilkins
Jamaal Williams
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Robert Woods
