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True Fantasy Points: Week 5 Update

A stats-based guide for identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

It's time to update my True Fantasy Points (TFP) math given what's happened in the first four weeks of 2018. If you're unfamiliar with how my TFP system works, here are the links to my preseason articles:

  1. Quarterback TFP
  2. Running back TFP
  3. Wide receiver TFP

The Cliffs Notes version is that I calculate TFP by multiplying players' "true" efficiency stats by their opportunity, and then applying Footballguys' standard scoring system to the result:

  1. For quarterbacks, my opportunity measure is pass attempts, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Attempt (YPA), Touchdowns per Attempt (TDPA), and Interceptions per Attempt (INTPA).
  2. For running backs, my opportunity measures are carries (in the running game) and routes run (in the passing game), and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Carry (YPC), Touchdowns per Carry (TDPC), Receptions per Route Run (RPRR), Yards per Route Run (YPRR), and Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR).
  3. For wide receivers and tight ends, my opportunity measure is routes run, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are RPRR, YPRR, and TDPRR.

As an example, Marvin Jones has amassed 15 catches for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns, which translates to an Actual YPRR of 1.5 and an Actual TDPRR of 1.3% based on estimated routes run in 2018. And based on about 1,400 actual routes run in his Lions career, Jones' True YPRR is 1.7, and his True TDPRR is 1.1%, which means he "should" have 251 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on those 15 catches. If we apply Footballguys' standard coring system to both sets of numbers, we find that he's actually scored 35.3 points, whereas his "true" skill suggests 34.9 points (slight math discrepancy due to intentional rounding). This translates to a 0.4-point difference between standard points and TFP, which one can interpret as Jones being neither a buy-low or sell-high candidate. In essence, he's performing almost exactly on par with expectation.

So with everyone on the same page, find out which players are most likely to see their fantasy scoring pace slow down (or speed up) over the course of the next three months.

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