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True Fantasy Points: 2018 Running Back Projections - Footballguys

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in running back projections.

This is the second installment in the True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2018. If you missed the previous article on quarterbacks, click here. And if you want to learn more about the statistical methodology underlying the series, click here or here.

As was the case with quarterbacks on Monday, today's mission is to use TFP to identify running backs whose average draft positions (ADP) are out of whack with their "true" value. As you'll see, 2018 provides more fodder for the overvalued side of the spectrum than the undervalued side. Furthermore, you'll come to learn that the randomness of running back stats results in David Dodds' projections being far more in line with TFP than they were for quarterbacks.

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