TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

Cash game and GPP selections for DraftKings

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

HANDLING RUNNING BACK SITUATIONS. Welcome to Week #16: Where Robby Anderson is chalk, Elijah McGuire is relevant, and C.J. Uzomah is cash game-viable! It's a journey, folks, and a tumultuous one at that. Injuries are abound and playoffs are imminent, both of which affect playing time for those players we DFS fanatics are looking to slot into our rosters. At running back this weekend, there are a couple situations I'm monitoring closely and I thought I would lead with those...

Todd Gurley. I don't expect Gurley to play on Sunday. This tweet has baffled hardcore football fans by suggesting that C.J. Anderson will be next-in-line if Gurley is unable to go despite Anderson being signed on Tuesday of this week. Meanwhile, John Kelly, a preseason spark plug rookie is reportedly going to play second-fiddle to Anderson, who has had a grand total of three days to learn Sean McVay's complicated schemes. I, for one, am not buying it. I think we'll see Gurley sit. I also think that we will see C.J. Anderson start on a script of 10-15 offensive plays with Kelly spelling him, as needed, on those plays. Thereafter, I expect Kelly to be the primary running back because he has six months' experience with the Rams playbook and personnel. All of this is important because Anderson is not an option on DraftKings, but Kelly is only $4.0K and is projected to be on only 2% of rosters. As 14-point home favorites, the Rams should be running a lot in the second half of this game against the Cardinals, who allow the 4th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. My advice is to take a chance with Kelly in large-field tournaments because he has 20-point upside if the above scenario comes to fruition.

Leonard Fournette. Last week, Leonard Fournette was putting together a decent day going into halftime against the Redskins. He was on pace to surpass 20 touches and over 100 all-purpose yards. And then Doug Marrone happened. He benched Fournette in the second half because he wanted to get a look at their 7th-round pick, David Williams, before the Jags' disappointing season comes to a close. Fournette got one carry in the second half as Marrone ensured that the Jags lost to a Josh Johnson-led Redskins squad, thereby driving up the Jags' draft slot for the 2019 draft. Coming into this week, Fournette has another great matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed 9 different running backs to accrue 100+ all-purpose yards this season. That said, I cannot advocate strongly for Fournette because it appears that Doug Marrone is content to lose Jacksonville's remaining games and minimize Fournette along the way. At $6.0K, you can do better for the price point.

Christian McCaffrey. There is no question that we have gotten a good look at what CMC can do in this league in 2018. The matchup against the Falcons on Sunday is prime, as Atlanta has done nothing to defend pass-catching running backs for the better part of two years now. But there is reason to pause, as Cam Newton (shoulder) has been shut down for the season, which could dramatically affect this entire offense. Taylor Heinicke will take over at quarterback and while he is an intriguing tournament option at only $4.0K, his presence has to be a downgrade to all Panthers' offensive players. McCaffrey is priced only behind Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, which makes him a tough sell across all formats. My recommendation is to go underweight on CMC and spend your money at the wide receiver position, where the matchups and situations are more optimal.

Kenyan Drake & Kalen Ballage. When Frank Gore went down with a season-ending injury last week, we finally got to see Kalen Ballage take the field and understand why the Dolphins selected him in the 4th round of this year's draft. The 6'2" rookie impressed with 12 carries for 123 yards and a score in limited action. Meanwhile, Kenyan Drake continued to see only about 50% of the team's offensive snaps despite the increased opportunity made possible by Gore's early departure. Head Coach Adam Gase has limited Drake's snaps all season because of Drake's propensity to get caught behind the line of scrimmage while trying to break a bigger play; the result has been a frustrating year for Drake, watching Frank Gore too often and now yielding time to a rookie. Meanwhile, Ballage has a solid backing in the fantasy community and many are eager to see him take the wand in Miami's backfield, but Adam Gase is going to see this one through the end of the season and I suspect it is a 50/50 split across these last pair of games, which probably kills their DFS value until 2019.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAMEOPPONENTSALARYCROWD EXPOSURECASH RANKGPP RANKNOTES
Nick Foles HOU $4700 9% 1 1 HOU: Allowed 300+ pass yards in 3 of last 4.
Dak Prescott TB $5700 12% 2 10 Good spot vs. 4th friendliest defense to QBs.
Deshaun Watson @PHL $6600 5% - 2 Injuries galore in PHL secondary. Perfect spot.
Kirk Cousins @DET $6000 4% - 3 Pass game = path of least resistance vs. DET.
Jared Goff ARZ $6400 4% - 4 If Gurley is inactive, Goff should lead the offense.
Ben Roethlisberger @NO $6700 4% - 5 Tough to run vs. NO. Plus gamescript.
Aaron Rodgers @NYJ $6300 5% - 6 Jets have struggled to contain legit QBs in 2018.
Sam Darnold GB $4900 5% - 7 Rookie is evolving. Price and matchup help.
Tom Brady BUF $5900 5% - 8 GPP-viable. Low popularity and high upside.
Drew Brees PIT $6500 7% - 9 Averaging 28.7 DK PPG at home this season.

QB OVERVIEW:

CASH

  • Nick Foles is my favorite cash and GPP quarterback selection on DraftKings this weekend. He faces a Houston secondary that has allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 of their previous 4 games with the lone exception being against Sam Darnold (24 for 38, 253 yards, 2 TDs) last Saturday evening. The Texans are stout up front, allowing only 3.6 rushing yards per attempt (best in the NFL), but have been susceptible through the air, where their 22nd-ranked DVOA pass defense has yielded a 20+ fantasy point performance to opposing quarterbacks every week for the past month. In three starts this season, Foles has only a single passing touchdown across 113 attempts, a number that is screaming for positive regression. At $4.7K, he is a prime cash game play against this pass funnel defense and his 9% implied ownership is too low considering the mismatches that the Eagles receivers present to Houston's defensive backs.
  • To diversify your cash game lineups, you might consider Dak Prescott against the Buccaneers' soft secondary that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Dak has become more fantasy relevant since the arrival of Amari Cooper in Week #9; since that time, Prescott has averaged nearly 19 DK points per game, which is well above the 3x multiplier he would need to justify his spot in your cash game rosters this weekend. With an implied team total approaching 28 points, the Cowboys should provide plenty of opportunity for Prescott to rack up fantasy production against a defense that has not performed well for the bulk of the season.

GPP

  • Elementary, My Dear Watson. Over their past five games, the Eagles secondary have allowed 363, 297, 150, 455, and 339 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. The outlier 150-yard game was a hybrid effort from Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy, while Drew Brees, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Eli Manning throttled the Birds through the air. Injuries to starters and their backups have the Eagles fielding a makeshift secondary that could be exploited by Deshaun Watson and company on Sunday. We now know that Lamar Miller is inactive and we also know that the Eagles cannot stop anything through the air, which bodes well for Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, who could feasibly connect for 200-yards against this defense. Do not forget about Demaryius Thomas, who outclasses this secondary and will be rostered on a fraction of the number of lineups as Hopkins.
  • Captain Kirk. The Detroit Lions shored up their rush defense earlier this season with the acquisition of Damon Harrison, but we have seen the Lions struggle to contain legitimate NFL quarterbacks throughout the season. Over the past month, the Lions have only allowed 4 passing touchdowns, but those games included the likes of Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Chase Daniel. Prior to that, Detroit allowed Cam Newton to throw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns and Mitchell Trubisky put up eerily similar numbers the week before Cam played the Lions. In short, the Lions secondary is only as good as its opponent. They will face off against Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs on Sunday, which does not bode well for their recent success. With their best, by far, cornerback (Darius Slay) trending towards a Sunday inactive, this could get ugly in Minnesota and Kirk Cousins may pick apart this defense with his superior weapons.
  • Elsewhere. In GPP contests, there will be a lot of exposure to players from the Steelers-Saints game because of the elevated Vegas total for that contest. Feel Free to roster Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger, the latter of whom will be the more popular option. Both are strong tournament options, but do not overlook their secondary receivers, who can provide a level of roster uniqueness that one cannot get with a Brees-Michael Thomas or Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown stack. And if you are into game-stacking, you could do worse than taking a flyer on the Packers-Jets, which features two teams with below-average defenses playing for nothing. There, Sam Darnold is intriguing at only $4.7K and Aaron Rodgers is more expensive at $6.3K, but both are logical GPP selections because of their matchups and relatively benign running backs.

RUNNING BACKS

NAMEOPPONENTSALARYCROWD EXPOSURECASH RANKGPP RANKNOTES
Ezekiel Elliott TB $9000 37% 1 2 TB: Allowed 100+ rushers in 4 of last 5 games.
Nick Chubb CIN $7300 22% 2 1 100+ yards and/or a TD in 7 of 8 starts.
Elijah McGuire GB $4700 18% 3 12 20+ touches @ $4.7K = solid cash floor.
Marlon Mack NYG $5500 19% 4 3 Gashed a much better DAL defense last week.
Tevin Coleman @CAR $4800 13% 5 10 See comments on McGuire (above).
Jamaal Williams @NYJ $5400 13% - 4 Absorbs bellcow role after Jones injury.
Joe Mixon @CLE $7100 7% - 5 150+ yards vs. CLE in previous meeting.
Sony Michel BUF $4900 4% - 6 Crowd is sleeping. Be overweight on the field.
Saquon Barkley @IND $7900 28% - 7 No Beckham = Entire offense on his shoulders.
John Kelly ARZ $4000 2% - 8 Not buying that Gurley plays or C.J. is the backup.
Alvin Kamara PIT $7400 15% - 9 Price is fair for upside and usage in NO offense.
Jordan Howard @SF $4300 3% - 11 20 touches/game in last two. Plus gamescript.

RB OVERVIEW:

CASH

  • Zeke & Chubb. If you are paying up for a running back this week, make it either Ezekiel Elliott or Nick Chubb, both of whom are heavy home favorites and have little-to-no competition for touches out of the backfield. As discussed in the Tips section of this article, there are a lot of questions about various running backs this week, but Chubb and Elliott are amongst the safest, high-floor options at the position. The matchups for both are stellar, as Elliott faces the league's 5th-friendliest defense to the position, one that has allowed a 100-yard rusher in 4 of their previous 5 games; Chubb gets the 2nd-worst rush defense (fantasy points per game allowed), the Bengals, who have allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs than all but three NFL teams.
  • Mid-range Options. There are no sure-fire punt running backs this week, which makes playing cash games a bit riskier than the last few weeks. In the mid-range, however, Elijah McGuire and Marlon Mack project as decent options that should see 18-20 touches against defenses that are bottom-half against the rush. Coming off back-to-back weeks with 20 or more touches, McGuire is priced at only $4.7K and faces the Packers, who allowed five different running backs to achieve 3x value on McGuire's current salary over their previous five games. Mack is coming in hot off a 140-yard effort with a pair of scores against a solid Cowboys defense and will get a Giants' front seven that has bled rushing yardage since Damon Harrison left for Detroit at the end of October. As hefty 9-point favorites, the Colts should continue to feed Mack, who is fairly priced at only $5.5K.

GPP

  • Joe Mixon. It is not often possible to recommend a running back from a team projected to lose by nine points, but Joe Mixon fits that mold this week against the Browns. With Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and now Tyler Boyd out for the season, Joe Mixon is the only O.G. offensive skill player on the Bengals and they continue to feed him with opportunity. Over the Bengals' previous two games, Mixon has 60 touches, 14 of which were inside the redzone. The result was 270 all-purpose yards, 3 scores, and a hair less than 60 DK points. His matchup against the Browns is better-than-advertised, as Cleveland allows the 8th-most fantasy points per game to the position, including 22.5 DK points to Mixon in their previous matchup (where Mixon did not find the endzone).
  • Sony, Sony. In a surprise loss to the Steelers at Heinz Field last week, the Patriots could not get anything going on offense. That should change on Sunday when the Bills come to town, as Buffalo is projected to allow New England to score a tad over four touchdowns while they look to lock up the AFC East for the 16th time in the 21st century. Last week, I wrote about Sony Michel's under-the-radar usage in this offense and liked his GPP potential against the Steelers, but the Patriots were never able to get their offense rolling, which allows us to go back to the bank with Michel once again this week and hope that he delivers at low single-digit ownership against a defense that was last tested almost a month ago when they yielded 100+ yards and a pair of scores to Leonard Fournette.
  • Other Thoughts. The rise of Aaron Jones cast a deep shadow on Jamaal Williams' inefficiencies this season and group think might keep Williams' percent-rostered numbers lower than they should be against an untested Jets rush defense. If Vegas is correct and the Packers jump to an early lead, Williams could be tasked with running clock in the second half, which would be a recipe for success at a reasonable price point. A similar argument could be made for Jordan Howard, a salary-saving option at the position, who has 20 or more touches in each of the Bears previous two games; if Chicago can grind an early lead, Howard will be asked to bring home the win in the second half and his 2% implied ownership would make him a GPP hero, if he were to finish with 15+ DK points.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NAMEOPPONENTSALARYCROWD EXPOSURECASH RANKGPP RANKNOTES
Davante Adams @NYJ $8500 16% 1 1 57 targets in past 5 games. No Cobb either.
Michael Thomas PIT $8100 15% 2 6 30% marketshare of NO pass offense.
Robby Anderson GB $4500 34% 3 11 Vibing with Darnold since the rookie's return.
James Washington @NO $3100 1% 4 8 If JuJu is inactive, should absorb WR2 role.
Dante Pettis CHI $4300 12% 5 15 13+ DK points in 4 straight games.
Antonio Brown @NO $8300 10% - 2 Should get additional looks if JuJu is limited.
DeAndre Hopkins @PHL $8600 16% - 3 Eagles have no answer for his skillset…none.
Adam Thielen @DET $7800 6% - 4 Serious personnel advantage. Ripe for big game.
Julian Edelman BUF $7200 10% - 5 Loss of Josh Gordon = additional workload.
Stefon Diggs @DET $7400 5% - 7 Vikings scheming to get Diggs away from Slay.
Robert Woods ARZ $6600 14% - 9 If Gurley is inactive, WRs will be busy.
Brandin Cooks ARZ $6500 6% - 10 Patrick Peterson trending towards inactive.
Amari Cooper TB $7500 12% - 12 TB: 6th most points allowed to WR position.
Demaryius Thomas @PHL $4700 3% - 13 Excellent contrarian stack option with Watson.
Mike Evans @DAL $6800 4% - 14 Plus gamescript and skill mismatch vs. DAL CBs.

WR OVERVIEW:

CASH

  • Adams, Apple of Aaron's Eye. Already the lynchpin of the of Packers offense, Davante Adams' almost has to score a touchdown on Sunday. The fifth-year veteran is smashing his own records and should round out the season nicely with no Aaron Jones and no Randall Cobb from which to compete for redzone looks. Entering this game, Adams is leading the team in redzone opportunities (29) and has posted 100-receiving yards and/or a score in 10 consecutive games. He is also closing in on a franchise record currently held by Sterling Sharpe and has gone on record that he would like Aaron Rodgers to help him obtain that record. Against a team that allowed DeAndre Hopkins to log a 10/170/2 stat line just a week ago, Adams looks to be in a perfect spot to slot into your cash and tournament lineups in Week #16.
  • Mr. Mike Thomas. Held scoreless in four straight games, Michael Thomas should rebound against the Steelers on Sunday. Thomas has gone as Brees has gone this season, logging home-away splits (25.0 FPs/game at home; 17.0 FPs/game on the road) that align with Brees' numbers (28.7 FPs/game at home; 17.1 FPs/game on the road). This should not come as a surprise to anybody who watches this team regularly, as Thomas is far-and-away Brees' favorite target, as evidenced by his 28.2% marketshare of the Saints' passing game. Coming off a three-game road trip that saw him produce season-low numbers, look for the pendulum to swing the other way and Thomas will deliver against the Steelers' 21st-ranked DVOA pass unit.
  • Elsewhere. Robby Anderson has caught fire of late with Sam Darnold under center. The two have displayed immediate chemistry, connecting for 11/172/2 since Darnold returned 2 games ago. Anderson will get shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, but it will not be enough to prevent him from finishing with a handful of catches for 60-80 yards, which is what you need to substantiate his $4.5K salary. And for just a few hundred dollars less, you can latch onto Dante Pettis in a tough matchup against the Bears' top-notch defense. Pettis has impressed since the Niners' Week #11 bye, having scored 13+ DK points in every game. His work will be cut out for him against the Bears secondary, but the gamescript and volume should be enough to deliver 3x on his pittance of a salary.

GPP

  • Nuk & Demaryius. In the quarterback section above, I outlined the reasons you should consider targeting the Eagles secondary with Deshaun Watson. If you bought the arguments, stacking him with either DeAndre Hopkins and/or Demaryius Thomas makes a lot of sense, but for different reasons. Rolling with Hopkins is the layup option, as Hopkins may be the best all-around wide receiver in the league and he will be facing some of the weakest coverage he has seen all season; the drawback to rostering Hopkins is that you will pay a premium to get him into your lineups and you will have him alongside 15% of your competitors. If salary is limiting or you want to employ some game strategy, consider Demaryius Thomas, who continues to get looks in this offense, but has not found paydirt since his two-touchdown game against the Titans a month ago. With Lamar Miller announced as inactive on Saturday, the Texans could lean heavily on both of these receivers to bring home the victory and the AFC South title.
  • Vikings Receivers. Newly installed Offensive Coordinator, Kevin Stefanski, made an immediate impact last week, as the Vikings scored a season-high 41 points against the Dolphins, the same number of points they had scored in their previous 3 contests. Friend and football scholar, Evan Silva, tweeted that that one of Stefanski's first tweaks to the offense was moving Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs around to take advantage of personnel matchups; the result was less slot action for Thielen and more for Diggs. Against the Lions on Sunday, we should expect more of the same, as Stefanski attempts to avoid Darius Slay whenever possible. Outside of Slay, the Detroit secondary is a farce and has survived by facing inferior competition for most of the season. This Thielen/Diggs duo will be the best wide receiver tandem that they have faced all season, by far, and it would not be surprising to see both of them finish with 100+ receiving yards if the Lions are able to stifle Dalvin Cook up front.
  • Other Thoughts. Both Antonio Brown and Julian Edelman are in similar situations on Sunday, as both have enjoyed solid support from teammates who are either hobbled (JuJu Smith-Schuster) or no longer there (Josh Gordon). In both cases, we should expect their quarterbacks to seek them out early and often. Brown will get a steady dose of Marshon Lattimore, but Brown is matchup-proof, as we have seen throughout his career. No team in the league allows more production to the wide receiver position than the Saints, which further bolsters the case for Brown. In Foxborough, Edelman should continue to enjoy heavy volume and will avoid TreDavious White by running the majority of his snaps out of the slot.



TIGHT ENDS

NAMEOPPONENTSALARYCROWD EXPOSURECASH RANKGPP RANKNOTES
Evan Engram @IND $4600 17% 1 1 8/75/0 in previous game w/out Beckham.
C.J. Uzomah @CLE $3300 6% 2 3 Cinci is running out of pass-catchers.
Zach Ertz HOU $5900 18% - 2 Rebound spot after back-to-back stinkers.
Eric Ebron NYG $5700 10% - 4 12 TDs is best in the league at position.
Jimmy Graham @NYJ $3700 3% - 5 Positive TD regression candidate.
David Njoku CIN $3800 6% - 6 Everybody scores vs. CIN these days.
Austin Hooper @CAR $3700 6% - 7 CAR: 3rd most FPs allowed to TEs.
Chris Herndon GB $3100 7% - 8 Punt option. Leverage away from Robby.
Trey Burton @SF $4000 2% - 9 Crowd exposure is too low for role.
Rob Gronkowski BUF $5600 6% - 10 Not the same Gronk but upside is there.

TE OVERVIEW:

CASH

  • Engram it Home. There is not a lot to love at the tight end position for cash games this week, but the best option is probably Evan Engram, who led the Giants in targets last week without Odell Beckham Jr active. Engram finished with an 8/75/0 stat line, good enough for 15.5 DK points, a number that would suffice for this week's $4.6K salary against the Colts. The matchup against Indy is excellent, as the Colts allow 26% more production to the position than league-adjusted defenses (4th-worst on this slate) and the 5th-most fantasy points overall. With Beckham sidelined yet again on Sunday, Engram should see similar action and brings a 10-12 point floor to your roster at a reasonable price point.
  • Punting the Position. Long-time readers of this column know that I typically like to punt the tight end position because it is so inconsistent from week to week. If you are looking to spend up elsewhere, you can save about $1.5K from Evan Engram and go with the Bengals C.J. Uzomah, who needs a 4/50/0 stat line to pay off his low salary in cash formats. The volume should be there for Uzomah because the Bengals are rapidly running out of receivers with Tyler Boyd (MCL) being the latest addition to the injured reserve list. Boyd's eight targets per game will need to be re-distributed amongst the likes of John Ross, Cody Core, and Alex Erickson; Ross, a 4.2-second speed demon, does not have a skillset that meshes well with Driskel's safety-first, ball-control style, but Uzomah's short routes and experience with Driskel could yield dividends against the Browns, who allow the 4th most fantasy points per game to his position.

GPP

  • Pricy Options. A week after disappointing fantasy owners everywhere, you could do worse than going back to the well with either Zach Ertz (vs. Houston) or Eric Ebron (vs. NY Giants). Ertz was shut down by the Cowboys two weeks ago, but had two missed touchdown opportunities last week that could have resulted in a big week for the league's 2nd-ranked fantasy tight end. He should bounce back against the Texans, who allow 23% more fantasy production to the position than league-adjusted defenses on the season. Ebron has been more hit than miss this season, but when he misses, he brings down the house. Ebron has 8 games with 15+ points, but counters those numbers with 5 games of single-digit fantasy production. This week, he will get a decent matchup against a Giants defense that will be without Alec Ogletree (concussion) and allowed the aforementioned Ertz to post 22.1 DK points against them just 3 weeks ago.
  • Cheaper Options. In the mid-$3K range, there are several tight end options who have touchdown upside that could yield dividends in tournament formats. Jimmy Graham is coming off a week that saw him with redzone looks for the first time in over a month, but his matchup against the Jets (3rd fewest points to tight ends) leaves a bit to be desired. Nonetheless, the absence of Aaron Jones and Randall Cobb mean that Aaron Rodgers will have to look towards alternative skill players in this contest and Graham certainly fits the bill. David Njoku is another option at a similar price point. Njoku's large frame and general athleticism keep him in tournament contention every week and given that the Bengals have already allowed him to post 17.3 DK points in their previous contest, he is an obvious candidate for GPP formats. Lastly, Austin Hooper is attractive at $3.7K on a week where Julio Jones is several levels lower than healthy. Hooper is tied with Jones for redzone targets and faces a Panther defense that allows 31% more fantasy production to the position than league-adjusted defenses.

TEAM DEFENSES

NAMEOPPONENTSALARYCROWD EXPOSURECASH RANKGPP RANKNOTES
Patriots BUF $2500 15% 1 4 Home-based salary-saver for cash.
Rams ARZ $3200 11% 2 1 Rosen has been generous to defenses.
Bears @SF $3500 5% 3 2 Best defense vs. Nick Mullens? Yes, please.
Vikings @DET $2900 5% - 3 Vikes: 9 sacks in last. Lions are in shambles.
Jaguars @MIA $2700 2% - 5 Jags vs. Ryan Tannehill at 2%?!?!
Falcons @CAR $2300 4% - 6 Punt option vs. QB making NFL debut.
Colts NYG $3300 5% - 7 Giants are unimpressive w/out OBJ.
Browns CIN $3000 9% - 8 Driskel: Surpassed 170 yards in 1 of 4 games.

TEAM DEF OVERVIEW:

  • Pats in Cash. A general lack of value at key positions (running back and wide receiver) may force you to punt defense this week and that would be fine if you decided on rostering the New England Patriots. The Pats play at home for only the second time in six games and will face off against Josh Allen, a rookie quarterback who is prone to making mistakes. Look for Bill Belichick to give Allen some new looks that could lead to sack opportunities and defensive scores, all at a fair $2.5K salary.
  • Targeting Josh Rosen. No team in the league has been more generous to the team defense position than the Josh Rosen-led Arizona Cardinals this season. To say that Rosen has struggled would be an understatement. The rookie has thrown 14 interceptions and fumbled the ball on 8 different occasions, which makes for plenty of defensive scoring opportunities for opposing defenses. This week, that defense is headed by a strong secondary (Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters) and one of the league's best pass rushers in Aaron Donald. As 14-point underdogs, Rosen could have to put air under the ball often in this matchup, which makes the Rams one of the premier GPP options on the Week #16 slate.
  • Other Thoughts. Losers of six of their previous eight games, it appears that the Lions are dead men walking entering the close of the season. They will travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings, who got after Ryan Tannehill on nine different occasions last Sunday. This could be another big spot for the Vikings to deliver GPP upside, as the Lions have not posted 20 points in a game since they lost Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones Jr to injury. Elsewhere, do not be afraid to go after inexperienced quarterbacks with defenses that you might otherwise avoid. That means that the Falcons ($2.3K) are in play against Taylor Heinicke and the Browns bring upside to the table against Jeff Driskel, whose rookie blowup game still has not happened.