TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

Cash game and GPP selections for DraftKings

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.



In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

TIGHT WEEK. DraftKings has done a solid job pricing players this week. Through five weeks of football, we have had the ability to take advantage of cheap, overachieving quarterbacks, a multitude of key injuries, and Todd Gurley at less than 10K. Those luxuries are difficult to pinpoint this week and cash game lineup construction is an uphill struggle as a result. As of Friday, my plan is to back away a bit from cash games and focus a bit more on tournaments because I'm not loving having so many question marks in my cash game lineups. I might also reallocate my weekly 50/50 and/or double-up monies to head-to-head contests to hedge risk. That said, anybody who tells you that they love their cash game lineups this week is either a fool or a DFS newb. In other words, you are not alone and if you do think that you have an edge over the field, get your money in the game (and vice-versa). My best advice based on this week's analysis can be found in the Picks section below. Best of luck!

SINGLE-ENTRY TOURNAMENT STRATEGY. A few weeks ago, a Twitter follower (@jedlo) asked about how one should approach single-entry tournaments. It is a good question and one worth further discussion in this space. First and foremost, the most important factor in single-entry tournaments is to adjust your strategy for the size of the tournament. To exemplify that point, let's think about the ultimate single-entry contest: the head-to-head (H2H) cash game. In a H2H game, you are looking to build your roster with players who have a sizeable scoring floor and low variance, so as to maximize your scoring floor above your only other opponent. Now let's think about a simple 10-entry contest (still single-entry)--how would you approach lineup construction for such a contest? Ideally, you would be looking at building a cash-like lineup that also has some built-in upside; our David Dodds calls this approach a 'cash-plus' lineup whereby you stack a high-quality quarterback with his best receiver (think Matt Ryan to Julio Jones this week). In that case, your entry is more risky than the H2H contest, but certainly not a high-variant lineup that is just as likely to bomb as to succeed. From there, you would scale your level of risk into the size of the tournament. For 100 total entrants, you should still be thinking relatively cautiously; for 100K entrants, you need to be thinking about jamming in a 1% high-upside player just to generate some roster uniqueness from the masses.

If you are the type that prefers guidelines for what is described above, here are some soft rules for how to approach single-entry lineup construction:

  • < 100 total entrants: Cash-plus lineup construction with one, possibly two, high-variance player(s); ownership is less important here.
  • 101-1000 total entrants: QB-WR stack (with 300+/100+ yard upside, respectively) and at least 1-2 players at < 10-15% ownership.
  • 1000+ entrants: High-upside stacks (i.e., QB-WR-WR, gamestacks, etc.) with at least 1-2 players at < 5% ownership.

If you have a DFS question that you would like to have me address in a future edition of Tips and Picks, give me a shout on Twitter @tipandpick!


Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.


Jameis Winston @ATL $5800 16% 1 2 Bad defense + no running game = high output.
Jared Goff @DEN $6000 11% 2 4 Pivot away from Jameis. Overrated DEN defense.
Matt Ryan TB $6800 10% - 1 Best matchup of week. Price is only deterrent.
Andy Dalton PIT $6300 6% - 3 Funnel defense in PIT favors 300+ yard day.
Andrew Luck @NYJ $6200 2% - 5 Terrible running game puts offense on Luck's back.
Deshaun Watson BUF $6400 5% - 6 See notes on Andrew Luck, but add running ability.
Derek Carr SEA $5100 3% - 7 Untested SEA secondary could spring leaks here.
Russell Wilson @OAK $5700 4% - 8 Nice matchup vs. OAK's 30th DVOA pass defense.
Ben Roethlisberger @CIN $6500 7% - 9 Vegas likes this game to shoot-out. Get a piece.
Philip Rivers @CLE $5900 4% - 10 Suspect CLE wins here. Rivers could play from behind.



  • Matt Ryan is the unquestioned safest quarterback on the main slate, but his price tag is almost $7K, which is almost prohibitive on a week where value at other positions is limited. For $1K less than Ryan, you can grab Jameis Winston in his first start of 2018 in a game that Vegas likes to be a back-and-forth aerial assault between two teams with poor defenses. In the second half of garbage time against the Bears in Week 4, Winston completed 80% of his passes against a prevent defense and looked otherwise serviceable against a solid Chicago defense that was pressuring him on every play. This week, he gets a Falcons defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the position and has the 28th DVOA pass defense to this point in the season; Atlanta is equally bad against the run, but the Bucs have not demonstrated an ability to run the ball all season and it is difficult to concede that they will have an opportunity to do it this week after the Falcons put a few early scores on the board.
  • At a similar price point to Jameis Winston, you might consider Jared Goff as your cash game quarterback because the Rams have the second-highest implied team total on the week and has achieved the requisite 3x value on this week's $6K salary in every game this season. In recent years, one would not want to target a quarterback facing the likes of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr, Bradley Roby, but Talib has left for Los Angeles and Roby is struggling in coverage in 2018. The result has been a Denver secondary that has yielded 275+ yards and/or multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season despite not having faced an offense with the type of firepower that the Rams bring to the table. The only drawback to rostering Goff is if you believe that Todd Gurley will score four touchdowns on the ground, but the likelihood of Sean McVay going so one-dimensional is unlikely because of the success that he has had by spreading the ball around his talented offense.


  • As alluded to in the cash section above, Matt Ryan is the safest play at the position this week, but he also carries the highest upside against a Buccaneers secondary that allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for six touchdowns in his last effort. Prior to that, the Bucs had allowed Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Nick Foles to each surpass 300 passing yards and none of them finished with less than 20 DK points in their respective matchups. Enter Matt Ryan, who is averaging almost 300 passing yards per game at home since 2013 and will feature a slew of excellent receivers including Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and even Austin Hooper. The only thing that can stop Matt Ryan this week is a series of scores from the Falcons' ground presence, but even Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Ito Smith are solid receivers in their own right and could bolster Ryan's numbers if they receive, rather than run, their touchdowns.
  • With a 27.3-point implied team total, the Bengals are just a hair beneath the Falcons and Rams, but Andy Dalton's projected ownership is currently sitting at about half of each of their respective quarterbacks. One could make the argument that the Bengals will lean on Joe Mixon, who has 20+ touches in every game he has played this season, but the Steelers have been fairly stout against the run this season with no opposing running back surpassing 75 rushing yards and only 2 rushing touchdowns allowed through 5 contests. Thus, if Cinci is going to drop four touchdowns on Pittsburgh, as Vegas projects, it might have to come through the air and Dalton has shown that he is capable this season--he has thrown for 300+ yards and/or multiple touchdowns in all-but-one game this season. If Big Ben can bust out of his "stinks-on-the-road" routine and keep pressure on the Bengals, Dalton should finish this one with at least 4x on his salary.


Ezekiel Elliott JAX $7000 16% 1 8 56 touches over past 2 games. Talent > matchup.
Nyheim Hines IND $5100 10% 2 11 Heavy usage as receiver = decent floor in PPR.
Chris Carson @OAK $4400 10% 3 5 Plus matchup. 54 touches in his last 2 games.
David Johnson @MIN $5900 16% 4 6 Depressed price for focal point of ARZ offense.
Dalvin Cook ARZ $5700 11% - 1 Huge home fave vs. league's friendliest rush D.
Melvin Gordon III @CLE $8200 19% - 2 38 targets = 2nd on team. Gamescript-proof.
Christian McCaffrey @WAS $8300 18% - 3 WAS: 30th-ranked DVOA rush defense.
Marshawn Lynch SEA $5300 8% - 4 If OAK jumps to early lead, Beastmode in London.
T.J. Yeldon @DAL $6400 26% - 7 Crowd fave. Will be underweight on field.
James Conner @CIN $7700 16% - 9 2-TD upside vs. unproven CIN defensive front.
Bilal Powell IND $4500 3% - 10 Big Crowell days overshadowing Powell's role.
Tevin Coleman TB $6000 6% - 12 Leverage play against ATL passing options.



  • As referenced at the top of this article, there are some thin options at various positions on DraftKings this week...particularly at running back. On this week's episode of the PowerGrid, fellow Footballguy, Ryan Hester, outlined all the reasons why choosing a cash game running back is difficult on this slate. With that in mind, Ezekiel Elliott tops the list because of his bellcow role, strong offensive line play, and offense's inability to do anything other than run the ball. Sure, the matchup against the Jaguars' 7th ranked DVOA rush defense is less than optimal, but Elliott's $7K price tag has that matchup (and risk) baked in. And we should not look past the fact that the Jags defense has relented when facing an above-average running back this season; both Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt averaged ~ 5.0 yards per carry and scored against Jacksonville in their respective games. Elliott's value gets a boost when we take into account the fact that he has averaged 6 targets per game this season and should continue to get 8-10 fantasy points per game as a receiver.
  • It will not feel like a cash game play when you do it, but slotting Nyheim Hines into your lineups on Sunday is less risky than you might have thought. Hines is slowly usurping the primary running back role in Indy which, on its face, is unexciting, but when we see how the Colts are using Hines, he does merit additional attention. Hines has enjoyed ~ 70% of the Colts' offensive snaps for 3 consecutive weeks and he has been targeted in the passing game 5, 11, and 9 times, respectively during those games. A deeper look reveals that approximately half of those targets have come in his last five quarters of play, the same period of time that Andrew Luck's favorite receiver, T.Y. Hilton, has missed. In other words, Hines is getting more action as a receiver without Hilton in the lineup (who is expected to miss again this Sunday) and presumably because Luck is establishing a rapport with the rookie running back; an 83% completion percentage entering this weekend would support that notion. The matchup against the Jets is best described as middle-of-the-road (15th DVOA rush defense; 14th most FPs allowed to position), but where they have struggled is defending pass-catching running backs, as evidenced by the 11/95/0 stat line they allowed against the Denver running back trio just last week.
    • Saturday update: Marlon Mack was announced as the starter on Sunday, which lessens enthusiasm for Hines due to a loss of volume. Mack is priced at $3.8K and should get most of the 1st and 2nd down opportunities in this game; Hines will be involved in passing situations, as well as to spell Mack, who is playing for the first time in 2018. For cash game, you probably have to come off Hines and there is still enough uncertainty around Mack's volume that he is not as safe as we would like him to be. If you are looking to save salary in cash games, I am warming up to Ito Smith at $3.1K now that Devonta Freeman is inactive. Smith will play the Tarik Cohen receiving specialist role that resulted in 33.4 DK points against Tampa Bay a few weeks ago; we should not expect 30+ fantasy points for Smith, but getting 10 or more is not out of the question in this matchup.
  • On a week where DraftKings did a fantastic job pricing players, it is curious why (or how) they seemed to have missed the boat on Chris Carson. In his previous two games, Carson has compiled a 51/218/1 stat line and averaged ~ 20 DK points per game over that short span. Between those weeks, however, he was inactive due to a hip injury and Mike Davis stepped up with a big game (21/101/2) against the Broncos. Any way you slice it, the Seahawks are running the ball well and some of that increased ground production has to be attributed to an improved offensive line that our Matt Bitonti rates as a "B+" for rushing and 11th overall. The matchup against the Raiders is solid for a few reasons: first, the Raiders are listed as the 'home' team, but this game is in London and will confer no home-field advantage, and next, the Raiders have allowed opposing running backs to surpass 100-rushing yards and/or score a touchdown in all-but-one game this season.


  • There are a lot of questions surrounding the Minnesota Vikings ground game this season. First, there are questions about Dalvin Cook's health, as he has already missed two games and was listed on the injury report earlier in the week. Next, the Vikings' offensive line is one of the worst in football, ranking 30th here on Footballguys. Lastly, maybe the Vikings do not need the run the ball because Kirk Cousins is putting points on the board by throwing darts to the likes of Adam Thielen (5 consecutive 100-yard games) and Stefon Diggs (402 receiving yards, 8th in NFL). That said, Head Coach Mike Zimmer knows that he needs to establish a running game to be successful deep into the season and this week's game would represent a perfect spot to right that ship. They will match up against the Cardinals, who have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league in 2018, including a pair of multiple touchdown games to Todd Gurley and Mike Davis. Dalvin Cook is fully practicing for the first time in weeks and Latavius Murray (3.5 yards per carry) has done nothing to demand a share of the backfield upon Cook's return. Before Cook was injured last season, he was out-touching Murray almost 10-1, which is what we should expect if/when Cook is 100% this season. Monitor Friday's practice situation and if Cook is a full-go on Sunday, he is an excellent GPP option at his fair salary and modest public exposure.
    • In life, you learn who you can trust. One person that I trust, implicitly, is fellow Footballguy, Dr. Jene Bramel, who has stated that he believes that Dalvin Cook will not be active on Sunday. If Cook is inactive, slot in Latavius Murray for all the reasons described above. Murray loses a bit of appeal because he is not often involved as a receiver, but he has a nose for the endzone and is $1K cheaper than Cook, which makes him a fine pivot. Furthermore, the DFS community is not fond of Murray, who is always underowned, bolstering his appeal in tournaments.
  • Both Melvin Gordon III and Christian McCaffrey are luxury GPP options who bring similar upside to your tournament rosters at a near-$2K discount from Todd Gurley. First is Gordon, who has a whopping 38 targets entering this week's contest, good enough for 4th amongst NFL running backs. Having missed a game due to the Panthers' bye week, Christian McCaffrey is just a notch below him with 32 targets, but is actually averaging a hair more targets per game than Gordon because of playing one less game. The matchup for Gordon is above-average against a Browns squad that has yielded multiple rushing touchdowns and/or 100+ rushing yards to 3 out of 5 running backs this season. McCaffrey gets a ripe matchup against the Redskins' 30th DVOA rush defense that allowed Mark Ingram II to score twice last Monday night.


Julio Jones TB $7900 22% 1 1 There will be no better matchup this year.
Keke Coutee BUF $4600 12% 2 14 If he's active, his floor is solid in PPR formats.
Maurice Harris CAR $3000 1% 3 13 Beneficiary of injuries in WAS. Punt cash option.
Jarvis Landry LAC $6600 14% 4 7 Double-digit targets in 4 of 5 weeks.
Cole Beasley JAX $3200 1% 5 15 Squeaky wheel avoids Bouye & Ramsey in coverage.
Chester Rogers @NYJ $4500 3% - 2 Jets getting killed by slot receivers in 2018. No Hilton.
DeSean Jackson @ATL $5900 7% - 3 Big play ability vs. susceptible defense in shootout.
Tyler Boyd PIT $6000 16% - 4 If Green sees Haden shadow, Boyd gets extra volume.
Mike Evans @ATL $8100 14% - 5 100+ yards and/or TD in all but 1 game this year.
Calvin Ridley TB $6300 5% - 6 Love for Julio will keep crowd exposure reasonable.
John Brown @TEN $5500 7% - 8 Plum matchup against burnable Malcolm Butler.
Emmanuel Sanders LAR $6700 4% - 9 TD regression is forthcoming in pass-heavy script.
A.J. Green PIT $8000 11% - 10 If no Haden shadow, could have monster Sunday.
JuJu Smith-Schuster @CIN $7300 12% - 11 Recent quiet games could repress popularity.
Ryan Grant @NYJ $4600 1% - 12 Deep threat for IND. Love his current % rostered.



  • The case for Julio Jones does not need to be made. He is the most talented receiver on the Falcons and he is playing against a Tampa Bay defense that has not been able to shut down a wide receiver all season. Jones has not scored in 10 games, which is a major concern for a $7.7K receiver, but this matchup cannot be ignored and he should be prominently part of your DFS portfolio in Week 6.
  • While his tournament upside is arguably limited by the depth of his routes, saving salary in cash games with Keke Coutee makes a lot of sense on a tight salary weekend. Coutee impressed in the preseason and missed several games due to an injury before compiling 22 targets over his first two NFL games. In those efforts, he finished with 17.3 and 24.7 DK points, but his salary is still about $500 to $1,000 less than it should be based on that level of production. Coutee gets an uptick because we suspect that DeAndre Hopkins will contend with shadow coverage from TreDavious White, which could lead to additional action for Coutee on underneath routes to move the sticks. Those routes do not always equate to upside, but a respectable 6/60/0 stat line will deliver cash game value on his current salary.
  • At the bottom of the cost-savings barrel, you might consider Maurice Harris (if Paul Richardson Jr and/or Josh Doctson are inactive) and Cole Beasley. Harris is not an exciting name, but he did make an impression last week against the Saints; the former undrafted free agent was targeted 8 times on Monday Night Football against the Saints and finished with a 3/47/0 stat line. He is the only $3.0 wide receiver worthy of discussion on this slate. If you prefer a more established name, Cole Beasley is your huckleberry. Beasley went on record this week that he needs to be more involved in the Dallas passing game and there is reason to believe that his complaints will be heard; a seven-year veteran and most tenured receiver on the team, Beasley is not the type of player to complain, so when he does, you can bet he is heard. In an interview on Friday, Jerry Jones admitted that Dallas needs to work harder to get Beasley involved. Given that the Jags are near-impossible to throw against on the perimeter, Beasley should see increased action as soon as Sunday.


  • The Jets defense has had no answer for slot receivers this season; Emmanuel Sanders, Dede Westbrook, Golden Tate, and Jarvis Landry all had strong games against the Jets. Much of the blame could be placed upon the Jets' undersized and overmatched slot cornerback, Buster Skrine, who is a perennial bottom-dweller on PFF's cornerback rankings. This week, however, Skrine will be inactive, which means that rookie Parry Nickerson will get the nod to line up across from Chester Rogers out of the slot. Rogers is no world-beater, but he has 17 targets in 5 quarters of football without T.Y. Hilton, who will miss this game with nagging chest and hamstring issues. At only $4.6K, Rogers needs only to repeat what we accomplished over each of the previous two weeks to reach 4x tournament value; if he gets into the endzone along the way, 6x value is not unreasonable.
  • If you are looking at the high team total games (Cinci, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh), most of the receivers therein are in play. DeSean Jackson is a favorite because of how quickly he can get behind a defense to deliver return on investment, particularly when that investment is approximately 20% lower than Mike Evans. In Atlanta, both Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are viable options, but I finally give a slight preference to Ridley because of his redzone prowess and because DraftKings finally priced Sanu appropriately (after five weeks of football). In Cincinnati, it will be interesting to learn if the Steelers will employ Joe Haden in shadow coverage as they did last week with Julio Jones; Haden effectively eliminated Julio from the game until garbage time, which is a scary proposition if you were thinking about paying $8.0K for A.J. Green this weekend. To mitigate risk, you might consider Tyler Boyd at a few thousand dollars less, as his coverage defenders will assuredly be less talented. On the opposite side of the field, both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are options for tournaments, but it will come at a price, particularly for Brown.
  • In Nashville, deep threat John Brown should see a good bit of Malcolm Butler in coverage on Sunday. Butler has been dreadful to this point in the season, having allowed a league-high 405 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns (2nd worst) while in coverage; opposing quarterbacks have a rating surpassing 140 when throwing into Butler's coverage. Enter John Brown, who has had 7 or more targets in every game over the past month including 14 in last week's game against the Browns. Bolstering the case for Brown in tournaments is the fact that he is leading the NFL in AirYards, ahead of the uber-receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. Suffice it to say that the matchup, the volume, and the implied ownership all favor getting John Brown into tournament lineups this weekend.


Ryan Griffin BUF $2500 1% 1 6 Cash game punt play on tight salary week.
C.J. Uzomah PIT $3000 5% 2 1 Excellent matchup vs. shaky PIT defenders.
Eric Ebron @NYJ $5400 7% 3 2 25 targets since T.Y. Hilton went down in Week 4.
David Njoku LAC $3800 6% - 3 Dropped passes plaguing his tremendous upside.
Jordan Reed CAR $5200 5% - 4 Don’t sleep on him after New Orleans stinker in last.
Cameron Brate @ATL $3700 17% - 5 Crowd fave gets a downgrade if O.J. Howard is active.
Nick Vannett @OAK $2900 6% - 7 OAK: Allowed TDs to TE in each of last two games.
Kyle Rudolph ARZ $4400 4% - 8 Overshadowed by MIN WRs, but upside is there.
Austin Hooper TB $3500 15% - 9 TB getting slaughtered by TEs. Get some.
Greg Olsen @WAS $4300 7% - 10 Cam's fave target returns at modest price point.



  • Full disclosure: I hate the tight end options more than I hate the running back options this week. Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham both have intriguing matchups, but are not on the main slate, which leaves us with a scrap pile of options, none of whom are particularly enticing. With that in mind, I am largely punting the position in cash games and starting with Ryan Griffin at only $2.5K. Griffin is not a prototypical cash game players, as he has been hit-or-miss for most of the year, but he has been targeted an average of four times per game this season and is coming off a nine-target game. His matchup against the Bills is decent, if unspectacular, as the Bills have allowed tight ends to score in back-to-back weeks and have allowed the position to score 3x value on Griffin's current salary in every game this year
  • In Cincinnati, C.J. Uzomah gets a prime matchup against a Steelers defense that is tied with Tampa Bay for allowing the most fantasy production to tight ends this season (20.1 DK points per game). No TE1 has finished a game against the Steelers with less than double-digit fantasy production and there is no reason to expect that to change this Sunday. Uzomah is more of a big play receiver than Tyler Eifert, who he replaced in this offense, but he needs only a few of those chunk plays to hit value on his minimal $3.0K salary.


  • Time is ticking on David Njoku's scoreless streak. The second year talent has collected 7 or more targets in all-but-one game this season and is coming off an 11 target game against the Ravens last week. He trails only Jarvis Landry in targets and receptions, yet has not been able to score on the season. In fairness, Njoku's biggest flaw is his continued issue with dropped passes, but Baker Mayfield is insistent on getting the ball to Njoku; assuming that trend continues, sheer volume and overall athleticism would be enough to catapult David Njoku rosters to the top of the GPP leaderboards.
  • Because of the general lack of value across the DraftKings main slate and questions about the strength of the tight end position, in general, you can rest assured that most people are not going to take any chances with Jordan Reed's $5.2K salary. Reed has been a disappointment to fantasy owners across the board this season, averaging about 4 receptions and 45 receiving yards per game and finding the endzone only once. This could be a breakout spot for Reed, however, as the primary Redskins receivers (Paul Richardson Jr and Jamison Crowder) are banged up, which could result in overflow action to Reed. Lastly, we should not forget that Alex Smith has a history of favoring his tight ends (ask Vernon Davis and Travis Kelce), so Reed will eventually have some big performances.


Texans BUF $3500 8% 1 1 Top-notch defense vs. young, errant QB.
Vikings ARZ $3800 6% 2 3 Not a good spot for Josh Rosen.
Bears @MIA $3300 8% 3 5 CHI creates pressure; MIA allows it.
Ravens @TEN $2800 9% - 2 Tough to like much about this TEN offense.
Rams @DEN $3100 6% - 4 Case Keenum has more INTs than TDs.
Jaguars @DAL $3600 2% - 6 Best defense in league at single-digit %.
Cowboys JAX $2300 8% - 7 Always get a piece of the D facing Blake Bortles.
Dolphins CHI $2600 4% - 8 Do not fear Trubisky after his blowup week.


  • With five interceptions versus only two touchdowns thrown this season, Bills rookie Josh Allen has displayed some volatility that we saw from time to time during his college days at Wyoming. Allen is completing only 53% of his passes and no Bills receiver has more than 170 cumulative receiving yards this season. Simply put, the Bills are relying on defense to keep them relevant because their offense is in shambles. That narrative plays well for the Houston Texans, who play host to the Bills as 10-point favorites on Sunday. J.J. Watt and company will look to pressure Allen to force bad decisions and force potential turnovers; Allen has a history of doing exactly that, which makes the Texans the strongest play on the board this weekend.
  • The Minnesota Vikings parallel the Texans in multiple ways this weekend. Both sit a game out of first place with a pair of wins and will play host to underperforming teams as 10-point favorites. When the Arizona Cardinals come to town, the Vikings will look to snuff out what little offense the Cards have been able to muster to this point in the season. Arizona ranks dead-last in total yardage per game (210.8) and is next-to-last in points per game (13.0), ahead of only Buffalo (12.6). This is a perfect spot for the Vikings, who defense has been somewhat of a disappointment to this point in the season; however, they have faced far better offenses (LAR, PHL, GB) than than the one that Arizona puts on the field and this looks like a get-right spot for the guys in purple.
  • Only the Buffalo Bills have allowed more fantasy production to opposing team defenses than the Miami Dolphins, who have yielded 10.8 DK points per game to their 2018 opponents. This Sunday, the Dolphins will host the Bears, who boast one of the better defensive fronts in football and will likely be the best defense Miami has faced all season. That reality does not bode well for an overrated Dolphins offense that Vegas suspects will not be able to reach the 20-point threshold this weekend.

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