Ultimate Strength of Schedule, QBs - Footballguys

An in-depth look at the strength of schedule for quarterbacks

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the 16 best offenses while Defense B faced the 16 worst offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).

EXPLANATION OF USOS TABLES

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2018" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value can be used to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value can be used to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W01" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W05 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The blue values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. The red values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column.

(Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

In short:

  • Blue is a team with a good schedule
  • Red is a team with a bad schedule

ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE - QUARTERBACKS

Team
2018
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona
18.2
1
6
16.6
17.0
18.6
18.2
17.5
Atlanta
19.7
5
2
18.9
19.5
19.7
19.7
19.6
Baltimore
20.0
6
2
18.3
19.5
20.7
20.4
20.6
Buffalo
19.8
5
3
18.1
19.4
20.6
20.2
21.0
Carolina
19.7
5
3
19.6
19.8
19.2
20.8
21.1
Chicago
19.3
4
3
19.6
19.8
19.7
17.6
18.8
Cincinnati
19.9
7
3
19
19.5
20.0
19.7
20.2
Cleveland
19.6
4
2
20.8
19.3
19.8
19.0
18.1
Dallas
19.4
4
3
19.2
20.1
19.5
19.5
21.0
Denver
19.1
3
5
17.4
18.3
19.5
18.7
19.7
Detroit
18.6
2
5
19.0
19.6
18.6
18.1
18.6
Green Bay
18.5
1
6
17.8
18.1
18.6
18.2
18.6
Houston
19.4
6
4
21.0
21.0
19.2
19.0
16.6
Indianapolis
19.3
5
4
18.0
19.5
18.6
21.0
20.7
Jacksonville
20.5
8
2
21.0
20.5
20.4
20.5
20.8
Kansas City
18.6
2
6
19.5
18.5
18.5
18.1
18.8
LA Chargers
18.8
3
7
17.3
17.4
19.3
18.7
18.4
LA Rams
18.8
2
5
19.1
18.8
19.4
17.2
17.5
Miami
19.3
4
5
19.5
19.8
19.6
18.1
16.6
Minnesota
18.8
4
6
18.2
17.1
18.6
20.1
19.5
New England
19.6
7
4
19.4
20.3
19.8
19.8
19.0
New Orleans
18.9
2
3
20.3
20.0
17.9
20.2
19.7
NY Giants
19.0
4
5
19.1
19.6
18.6
20.8
21.3
NY Jets
19.7
7
4
21.0
19.4
18.8
20.0
21.5
Oakland
19.4
4
3
18.3
19.2
19.8
19.9
19.6
Philadelphia
19.6
4
2
20.7
20.4
19.3
19.1
18.6
Pittsburgh
19.2
3
4
20.7
19.5
18.2
20.3
20.8
San Francisco
18.7
1
4
19.8
19.8
18.9
17.8
16.5
Seattle
18.4
1
5
18.3
17.8
18.2
18.7
19.0
Tampa Bay
19.2
4
6
19.8
19.0
19.1
19.3
18.4
Tennessee
19.2
5
5
19.6
18.3
18.8
18.0
20.4
Washington
19.7
5
3
20.8
21.1
19.9
19.0
17.5
NFL Average
19.2
4
4
19.2
19.3
19.2
19.2
19.2

Week-By-Week Look

Team
W01
W02
W03
W04
W05
W06
W07
W08
W09
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Ari
18.6
14.8
16.4
18.3
17.1
18.3
18.8
17.1
-
20.5
17.9
20.1
21.0
20.7
19.3
14.8
18.3
Atl
15.9
18.8
22.1
19.5
21.4
20.5
20.4
-
18.6
21.1
19.9
22.1
16.0
21.0
19.4
18.8
20.5
Bal
16.6
19.5
18.8
21.4
21.1
21.7
22.1
18.8
21.4
-
19.5
17.9
19.3
20.5
20.5
20.1
21.1
Buf
16.0
20.1
18.3
21.0
21.7
22.5
22.2
20.9
16.4
18.9
-
14.9
21.3
18.9
20.7
20.9
21.3
Car
19.9
19.3
19.5
-
20.4
18.6
15.9
16.0
20.5
21.4
20.7
18.3
20.5
21.1
22.1
19.3
22.1
Chi
21.0
18.3
19.4
20.5
-
21.3
20.9
18.9
16.6
20.7
18.3
20.7
20.4
14.8
21.0
17.1
18.3
Cin
22.2
16.0
18.8
19.3
21.3
21.4
20.5
20.5
-
22.1
16.0
21.1
18.8
20.1
17.9
21.1
21.4
Cle
21.4
22.1
18.9
17.9
16.0
20.1
20.5
21.4
20.5
19.3
-
19.5
22.5
18.8
18.8
19.5
16.0
Dal
18.8
20.4
18.3
20.7
22.5
14.9
18.6
-
21.7
15.9
19.3
18.6
22.1
15.9
22.2
20.5
20.4
Den
18.3
17.9
16.0
20.5
18.9
14.8
19.4
20.5
22.5
-
20.1
21.4
19.5
17.1
21.1
17.9
20.1
Det
18.9
17.1
20.9
19.9
21.0
-
21.3
18.3
18.3
16.4
18.8
16.4
14.8
19.4
16.6
18.3
21.0
GB
16.4
18.3
18.6
16.6
20.7
17.1
-
14.8
20.9
21.3
18.3
18.3
19.4
19.3
16.4
18.9
20.7
Hou
20.9
21.7
20.4
22.2
19.9
16.6
14.9
21.3
18.8
-
18.6
21.7
21.1
22.2
18.9
15.9
14.9
Ind
19.5
18.6
15.9
22.5
20.9
18.9
16.6
17.9
-
14.9
21.7
21.3
14.9
22.5
19.9
20.4
21.7
Jac
20.4
20.9
21.7
18.9
20.5
19.9
22.5
15.9
-
22.2
21.4
16.6
22.2
21.7
18.6
21.3
22.5
KC
20.1
21.4
17.1
18.8
14.9
20.9
19.5
18.8
21.1
19.4
14.8
-
17.9
16.0
20.1
18.3
17.9
LAC
20.5
16.6
14.8
17.1
17.9
21.1
21.7
-
18.3
17.9
18.8
19.4
21.4
19.5
20.5
16.0
18.8
LAR
17.9
19.4
20.1
18.3
18.3
18.8
17.1
21.0
22.1
18.3
20.5
-
20.7
16.4
15.9
19.4
17.1
Mia
21.7
18.9
17.9
20.9
19.5
16.4
20.7
22.5
18.9
21.0
-
22.2
16.6
20.9
18.3
14.9
16.6
Min
17.1
21.0
16.6
14.8
15.9
19.4
18.9
22.1
20.7
-
16.4
21.0
20.9
18.3
21.3
20.7
16.4
NE
22.5
14.9
20.7
21.3
22.2
20.5
16.4
16.6
21.0
21.7
-
18.9
18.3
21.3
21.4
16.6
18.9
NO
20.5
21.1
19.3
20.4
18.6
-
16.0
18.3
14.8
19.5
15.9
19.3
19.9
20.5
18.8
21.4
18.8
NYG
14.9
19.9
22.5
22.1
18.8
15.9
19.3
18.6
-
17.1
20.5
15.9
16.4
18.6
21.7
22.2
19.9
NYJ
20.7
21.3
21.1
14.9
18.8
22.2
18.3
16.4
21.3
16.6
-
20.9
21.7
16.6
22.5
21.0
20.9
Oak
14.8
18.8
21.3
21.1
20.1
18.3
-
22.2
17.1
20.1
19.4
16.0
20.5
21.4
19.5
18.8
20.5
Phi
19.3
20.5
22.2
21.7
18.3
20.4
18.8
14.9
-
19.9
22.1
20.4
18.6
19.9
14.8
22.5
18.6
Pit
21.1
20.5
20.5
16.0
19.3
19.5
-
21.1
16.0
18.8
14.9
18.8
20.1
17.9
20.9
22.1
19.5
SF
18.3
20.7
20.5
20.1
19.4
21.0
14.8
19.4
17.9
20.4
-
20.5
18.3
18.8
18.3
16.4
14.8
Sea
18.8
16.4
19.9
19.4
14.8
17.9
-
20.7
20.1
14.8
21.0
18.8
17.1
18.3
17.1
20.5
19.4
TB
22.1
15.9
21.4
16.4
-
19.3
21.1
19.5
18.8
18.6
20.4
17.1
18.8
22.1
16.0
19.9
19.3
Ten
21.3
22.5
14.9
15.9
16.6
16.0
20.1
-
19.9
20.9
22.2
22.5
18.9
14.9
20.4
18.6
22.2
Was
19.4
22.2
21.0
-
22.1
18.8
19.9
20.4
19.3
20.5
22.5
19.9
15.9
20.4
14.9
21.7
15.9
Avg
19.2
19.2
19.2
19.3
19.3
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.4
19.3
19.2
19.3
19.2
19.2
19.2
19.2
19.2