Ultimate Strength of Schedule, QB - Footballguys

An in-depth look at the strength of schedule for quarterbacks

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the 16 best offenses while Defense B faced the 16 worst offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown 
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).

EXPLANATION OF USOS TABLES

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2018" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value can be used to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value can be used to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W01" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W05 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team.

(Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE - QUARTERBACKS

Team
2018
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona 18.3 0 6 16.6 17.1 18.6 18.3 17.5
Atlanta 19.8 4 2 19.0 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.6
Baltimore 20.0 6 2 18.3 19.5 20.7 20.4 20.6
Buffalo 19.8 7 3 18.2 19.4 20.6 20.2 21.0
Carolina 19.7 5 3 19.6 19.7 19.2 20.9 21.2
Chicago 19.3 2 3 19.6 19.8 19.7 17.6 18.8
Cincinnati 19.9 7 3 18.9 19.5 20.0 19.6 20.0
Cleveland 19.6 4 2 20.8 19.2 19.8 19.1 18.1
Dallas 19.4 4 3 19.1 20.1 19.5 19.4 20.8
Denver 19.1 3 5 17.3 18.3 19.6 18.6 19.6
Detroit 18.6 2 5 19.0 19.6 18.6 18.2 18.6
Green Bay 18.6 2 6 17.8 18.2 18.7 18.3 18.7
Houston 19.3 7 4 20.9 20.9 19.2 18.9 16.6
Indianapolis 19.3 5 4 18.0 19.5 18.5 20.8 20.6
Jacksonville 20.4 9 2 20.9 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.9
Kansas City 18.5 3 6 19.6 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.6
LA Chargers 18.8 3 7 17.4 17.3 19.2 18.7 18.5
LA Rams 18.8 1 5 19.0 18.7 19.5 17.3 17.5
Miami 19.2 4 5 19.4 19.7 19.6 18.1 16.7
Minnesota 18.9 3 6 18.2 17.1 18.7 20.1 19.5
New England 19.6 6 4 19.4 20.3 19.7 19.8 19.0
New Orleans 19.0 2 3 20.4 19.9 17.9 20.3 19.7
NY Giants 19.0 4 5 19.2 19.7 18.6 20.7 21.1
NY Jets 19.7 8 4 21.1 19.4 18.8 20.0 21.5
Oakland 19.4 4 3 18.3 19.3 19.8 19.9 19.6
Philadelphia 19.5 4 2 20.6 20.4 19.3 19.1 18.7
Pittsburgh 19.2 4 4 20.8 19.5 18.3 20.2 20.9
San Francisco 18.7 0 4 19.9 19.8 18.8 17.9 16.5
Seattle 18.4 1 5 18.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.1
Tampa Bay 19.2 4 4 19.8 19.0 19.1 19.4 18.5
Tennessee 19.2 6 5 19.6 18.3 18.8 17.8 20.1
Washington 19.6 4 3 20.7 21.0 19.9 18.9 17.6
NFL Average 19.2 4 4 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2

Week-By-Week Look

Team W01 W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17
Ari 18.6 14.8 16.4 18.4 17.2 18.4 18.8 17.2 - 20.6 17.5 20.1 20.9 20.7 19.4 14.8 18.4
Atl 16.0 18.8 22.1 19.5 21.5 20.6 20.0 - 18.6 21.2 19.9 22.1 16.0 20.9 19.4 18.8 20.6
Bal 16.7 19.5 18.8 21.5 21.2 21.8 22.1 18.8 21.5 - 19.5 17.5 19.4 20.6 20.6 20.1 21.2
Buf 16.0 20.1 18.4 20.9 21.8 22.6 21.7 21.0 16.4 18.9 - 15.0 21.4 18.9 20.7 21.0 21.4
Car 19.9 19.4 19.5 - 20.0 18.6 16.0 16.0 20.6 21.5 20.7 18.4 20.6 21.2 22.1 19.4 22.1
Chi 20.9 18.4 19.4 20.6 - 21.4 21.0 18.9 16.7 20.7 18.4 20.7 20.0 14.8 20.9 17.2 18.4
Cin 21.7 16.0 18.8 19.4 21.4 21.5 20.6 20.6 - 22.1 16.0 21.2 18.8 20.1 17.5 21.2 21.5
Cle 21.5 22.1 18.9 17.5 16.0 20.1 20.6 21.5 20.6 19.4 - 19.5 22.6 18.8 18.8 19.5 16.0
Dal 18.8 20.0 18.4 20.7 22.6 15.0 18.6 - 21.8 16.0 19.4 18.6 22.1 16.0 21.7 20.6 20.0
Den 18.4 17.5 16.0 20.6 18.9 14.8 19.4 20.6 22.6 - 20.1 21.5 19.5 17.2 21.2 17.5 20.1
Det 18.9 17.2 21.0 19.9 20.9 - 21.4 18.4 18.4 16.4 18.8 16.4 14.8 19.4 16.7 18.4 20.9
GB 16.4 18.4 18.6 16.7 20.7 17.2 - 14.8 21.0 21.4 18.4 18.4 19.4 19.4 16.4 18.9 20.7
Hou 21.0 21.8 20.0 21.7 19.9 16.7 15.0 21.4 18.8 - 18.6 21.8 21.2 21.7 18.9 16.0 15.0
Ind 19.5 18.6 16.0 22.6 21.0 18.9 16.7 17.5 - 15.0 21.8 21.4 15.0 22.6 19.9 20.0 21.8
Jac 20.0 21.0 21.8 18.9 20.6 19.9 22.6 16.0 - 21.7 21.5 16.7 21.7 21.8 18.6 21.4 22.6
KC 20.1 21.5 17.2 18.8 15.0 21.0 19.5 18.8 21.2 19.4 14.8 - 17.5 16.0 20.1 18.4 17.5
LAC 20.6 16.7 14.8 17.2 17.5 21.2 21.8 - 18.4 17.5 18.8 19.4 21.5 19.5 20.6 16.0 18.8
LAR 17.5 19.4 20.1 18.4 18.4 18.8 17.2 20.9 22.1 18.4 20.6 - 20.7 16.4 16.0 19.4 17.2
Mia 21.8 18.9 17.5 21.0 19.5 16.4 20.7 22.6 18.9 20.9 - 21.7 16.7 21.0 18.4 15.0 16.7
Min 17.2 20.9 16.7 14.8 16.0 19.4 18.9 22.1 20.7 - 16.4 20.9 21.0 18.4 21.4 20.7 16.4
NE 22.6 15.0 20.7 21.4 21.7 20.6 16.4 16.7 20.9 21.8 - 18.9 18.4 21.4 21.5 16.7 18.9
NO 20.6 21.2 19.4 20.0 18.6 - 16.0 18.4 14.8 19.5 16.0 19.4 19.9 20.6 18.8 21.5 18.8
NYG 15.0 19.9 22.6 22.1 18.8 16.0 19.4 18.6 - 17.2 20.6 16.0 16.4 18.6 21.8 21.7 19.9
NYJ 20.7 21.4 21.2 15.0 18.8 21.7 18.4 16.4 21.4 16.7 - 21.0 21.8 16.7 22.6 20.9 21.0
Oak 14.8 18.8 21.4 21.2 20.1 18.4 - 21.7 17.2 20.1 19.4 16.0 20.6 21.5 19.5 18.8 20.6
Phi 19.4 20.6 21.7 21.8 18.4 20.0 18.8 15.0 - 19.9 22.1 20.0 18.6 19.9 14.8 22.6 18.6
Pit 21.2 20.6 20.6 16.0 19.4 19.5 - 21.2 16.0 18.8 15.0 18.8 20.1 17.5 21.0 22.1 19.5
SF 18.4 20.7 20.6 20.1 19.4 20.9 14.8 19.4 17.5 20.0 - 20.6 18.4 18.8 18.4 16.4 14.8
Sea 18.8 16.4 19.9 19.4 14.8 17.5 - 20.7 20.1 14.8 20.9 18.8 17.2 18.4 17.2 20.6 19.4
TB 22.1 16.0 21.5 16.4 - 19.4 21.2 19.5 18.8 18.6 20.0 17.2 18.8 22.1 16.0 19.9 19.4
Ten 21.4 22.6 15.0 16.0 16.7 16.0 20.1 - 19.9 21.0 21.7 22.6 18.9 15.0 20.0 18.6 21.7
Was 19.4 21.7 20.9 - 22.1 18.8 19.9 20.0 19.4 20.6 22.6 19.9 16.0 20.0 15.0 21.8 16.0
Avg 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2